Politics889 active · 8,466 open · 57,915 all-time
Polymarket Politics Markets
US elections, Trump-administration events, congressional outcomes, world leadership — track whale consensus on every active politics market on Polymarket.
Politics is Polymarket's flagship category — and where smart-money traders most consistently outperform headlines and polling. From individual elections to legislative outcomes to political-event timelines (impeachments, resignations, executive actions), the Politics category is dense with markets that resolve over weeks-to-months and reward traders with informational edge.
We aggregate every open politics market: US elections (presidential, congressional, primaries), Trump-administration markets, world leader outcomes, Supreme Court and judicial markets, geopolitical-policy events, and political-tweet/event markets. Whale consensus is computed from Smart Money wallets (55%+ win rate, positive P&L, 10+ resolved markets, farmers and bots excluded). Note that many high-volume politics markets are NegRisk multi-outcome events (e.g. 'Who will win the GOP nomination?'); we halve effective USD on those to avoid double-counting.
Politics markets are also where whale-vs-retail divergence is starkest. Retail follows headlines and polling; smart money follows betting markets, internal data, and base rates. The Top Whales section below ranks the most consistent political bettors on Polymarket.
Top Politics Markets
By volume
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YES 17¢$18.9M vol
1608Yvs1556N
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
YES 31¢$17.0M vol
1614Yvs1326N
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
YES 15¢$16.7M vol
432Yvs460N
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YES 16¢$15.9M vol
639Yvs661N
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YES 28¢$14.9M vol
637Yvs638N
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YES 12¢$14.4M vol
662Yvs720N
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
YES 20¢$11.5M vol
891Yvs771N
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?
YES 14¢$7.2M vol
100Yvs205N
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YES 18¢$7.0M vol
323Yvs277N
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
YES 45¢$5.3M vol
343Yvs235N
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
YES 14¢$3.6M vol
121Yvs239N
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?
YES 34¢$2.1M vol
45Yvs153N
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?
YES 68¢$2.1M vol
181Yvs90N
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YES 68¢$1.4M vol
198Yvs149N
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YES 33¢$1.3M vol
144Yvs132N
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?
YES 61¢$636K vol
72Yvs101N
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?
YES 40¢$491K vol
51Yvs44N
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?
YES 34¢$405K vol
92Yvs106N
Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026?
YES 73¢$401K vol
54Yvs30N
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?
YES 19¢$343K vol
43Yvs46N
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
YES 45¢$304K vol
72Yvs83N