Politics3,353 active · 10,630 open · 54,349 all-time
Polymarket Politics Markets
US elections, Trump-administration events, congressional outcomes, world leadership — track whale consensus on every active politics market on Polymarket.
Politics is Polymarket's flagship category — and where smart-money traders most consistently outperform headlines and polling. From individual elections to legislative outcomes to political-event timelines (impeachments, resignations, executive actions), the Politics category is dense with markets that resolve over weeks-to-months and reward traders with informational edge.
We aggregate every open politics market: US elections (presidential, congressional, primaries), Trump-administration markets, world leader outcomes, Supreme Court and judicial markets, geopolitical-policy events, and political-tweet/event markets. Whale consensus is computed from smart-money wallets with $200K+ lifetime P&L. Note that many high-volume politics markets are NegRisk multi-outcome events (e.g. 'Who will win the GOP nomination?'); we halve effective USD on those to avoid double-counting.
Politics markets are also where whale-vs-retail divergence is starkest. Retail follows headlines and polling; smart money follows betting markets, internal data, and base rates. The Top Whales section below ranks the most consistent political bettors on Polymarket.
Top Politics Markets
By volume
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YES 15¢$27.7M vol
1899Yvs1499N
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YES 21¢$16.5M vol
1684Yvs1658N
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
YES 51¢$15.7M vol
1677Yvs1393N
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YES 18¢$15.2M vol
658Yvs706N
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YES 13¢$13.7M vol
716Yvs751N
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YES 15¢$13.1M vol
619Yvs652N
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YES 43¢$12.3M vol
1033Yvs777N
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YES 57¢$11.9M vol
649Yvs551N
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
YES 16¢$10.7M vol
933Yvs831N
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YES 12¢$5.7M vol
272Yvs253N
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
YES 64¢$3.5M vol
490Yvs327N
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
YES 63¢$3.1M vol
487Yvs273N
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
YES 38¢$2.7M vol
221Yvs192N
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
YES 28¢$2.4M vol
300Yvs286N
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
YES 38¢$2.1M vol
304Yvs299N
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
YES 57¢$2.0M vol
189Yvs192N
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
YES 24¢$1.7M vol
179Yvs156N
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
YES 13¢$1.6M vol
129Yvs205N
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YES 35¢$1.2M vol
146Yvs128N
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YES 66¢$1.2M vol
179Yvs151N
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
YES 44¢$1.2M vol
188Yvs194N