Politics1,093 active · 3,589 open · 29,900 all-time
Polymarket Politics Markets
US elections, Trump-administration events, congressional outcomes, world leadership — track whale consensus on every active politics market on Polymarket.
Politics is Polymarket's flagship category — and where smart-money traders most consistently outperform headlines and polling. From individual elections to legislative outcomes to political-event timelines (impeachments, resignations, executive actions), the Politics category is dense with markets that resolve over weeks-to-months and reward traders with informational edge.
We aggregate every open politics market: US elections (presidential, congressional, primaries), Trump-administration markets, world leader outcomes, Supreme Court and judicial markets, geopolitical-policy events, and political-tweet/event markets. Whale consensus is computed from smart-money wallets with $200K+ lifetime P&L. Note that many high-volume politics markets are NegRisk multi-outcome events (e.g. 'Who will win the GOP nomination?'); we halve effective USD on those to avoid double-counting.
Politics markets are also where whale-vs-retail divergence is starkest. Retail follows headlines and polling; smart money follows betting markets, internal data, and base rates. The Top Whales section below ranks the most consistent political bettors on Polymarket.
Top Politics Markets
By volume
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YES 23¢$26.1M vol
2743Yvs2479N
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YES 15¢$17.1M vol
1447Yvs1353N
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YES 20¢$14.2M vol
1948Yvs1701N
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
YES 37¢$13.8M vol
2308Yvs2007N
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YES 15¢$10.7M vol
824Yvs676N
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
YES 22¢$9.3M vol
1764Yvs1634N
Trump out as President before 2027?
YES 10¢$9.2M vol
774Yvs887N
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YES 14¢$7.3M vol
481Yvs542N
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YES 25¢$6.8M vol
694Yvs584N
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YES 52¢$6.6M vol
906Yvs730N
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
YES 60¢$4.6M vol
2703Yvs2500N
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
YES 81¢$4.1M vol
724Yvs696N
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
YES 20¢$3.4M vol
255Yvs292N
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
YES 24¢$3.4M vol
208Yvs289N
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
YES 10¢$2.4M vol
200Yvs228N
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
YES 17¢$2.2M vol
646Yvs712N
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
YES 42¢$2.0M vol
327Yvs288N
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
YES 19¢$1.8M vol
225Yvs247N
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
YES 89¢$1.6M vol
315Yvs258N
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
YES 37¢$1.5M vol
227Yvs188N
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
YES 43¢$1.5M vol
268Yvs225N