Politics1,284 active · 4,266 open · 33,206 all-time
Polymarket Politics Markets
US elections, Trump-administration events, congressional outcomes, world leadership — track whale consensus on every active politics market on Polymarket.
Politics is Polymarket's flagship category — and where smart-money traders most consistently outperform headlines and polling. From individual elections to legislative outcomes to political-event timelines (impeachments, resignations, executive actions), the Politics category is dense with markets that resolve over weeks-to-months and reward traders with informational edge.
We aggregate every open politics market: US elections (presidential, congressional, primaries), Trump-administration markets, world leader outcomes, Supreme Court and judicial markets, geopolitical-policy events, and political-tweet/event markets. Whale consensus is computed from smart-money wallets with $200K+ lifetime P&L. Note that many high-volume politics markets are NegRisk multi-outcome events (e.g. 'Who will win the GOP nomination?'); we halve effective USD on those to avoid double-counting.
Politics markets are also where whale-vs-retail divergence is starkest. Retail follows headlines and polling; smart money follows betting markets, internal data, and base rates. The Top Whales section below ranks the most consistent political bettors on Polymarket.
Top Politics Markets
By volume
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YES 18¢$26.6M vol
1889Yvs1433N
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YES 12¢$17.6M vol
946Yvs735N
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YES 21¢$15.1M vol
1660Yvs1574N
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
YES 45¢$14.9M vol
1622Yvs1297N
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YES 15¢$14.2M vol
596Yvs628N
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YES 17¢$12.5M vol
575Yvs615N
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YES 13¢$11.6M vol
564Yvs479N
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
YES 28¢$10.0M vol
890Yvs766N
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YES 65¢$8.1M vol
848Yvs446N
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YES 27¢$8.0M vol
472Yvs376N
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
YES 69¢$6.2M vol
556Yvs297N
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
YES 87¢$5.0M vol
856Yvs393N
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
YES 14¢$4.1M vol
187Yvs276N
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
YES 31¢$3.6M vol
138Yvs271N
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
YES 46¢$2.4M vol
350Yvs248N
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
YES 18¢$2.4M vol
42Yvs124N
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
YES 45¢$2.2M vol
325Yvs216N
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
YES 14¢$2.1M vol
102Yvs282N
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
YES 23¢$1.9M vol
122Yvs150N
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
YES 30¢$1.8M vol
146Yvs169N
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
YES 41¢$1.8M vol
264Yvs197N