Politics3,298 active · 9,581 open · 55,822 all-time
Polymarket Politics Markets
US elections, Trump-administration events, congressional outcomes, world leadership — track whale consensus on every active politics market on Polymarket.
Politics is Polymarket's flagship category — and where smart-money traders most consistently outperform headlines and polling. From individual elections to legislative outcomes to political-event timelines (impeachments, resignations, executive actions), the Politics category is dense with markets that resolve over weeks-to-months and reward traders with informational edge.
We aggregate every open politics market: US elections (presidential, congressional, primaries), Trump-administration markets, world leader outcomes, Supreme Court and judicial markets, geopolitical-policy events, and political-tweet/event markets. Whale consensus is computed from Smart Money wallets (55%+ win rate, positive P&L, 10+ resolved markets, farmers and bots excluded). Note that many high-volume politics markets are NegRisk multi-outcome events (e.g. 'Who will win the GOP nomination?'); we halve effective USD on those to avoid double-counting.
Politics markets are also where whale-vs-retail divergence is starkest. Retail follows headlines and polling; smart money follows betting markets, internal data, and base rates. The Top Whales section below ranks the most consistent political bettors on Polymarket.
Top Politics Markets
By volume
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YES 14¢$28.0M vol
1702Yvs1360N
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YES 22¢$17.1M vol
1529Yvs1525N
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
YES 49¢$15.8M vol
1515Yvs1307N
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YES 18¢$15.5M vol
606Yvs646N
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YES 13¢$13.9M vol
629Yvs683N
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YES 14¢$13.4M vol
553Yvs586N
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
YES 15¢$10.8M vol
842Yvs768N
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
YES 63¢$5.5M vol
548Yvs344N
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?
YES 12¢$4.8M vol
98Yvs173N
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
YES 64¢$3.7M vol
568Yvs292N
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
YES 45¢$3.7M vol
249Yvs203N
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
YES 28¢$3.5M vol
316Yvs292N
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
YES 38¢$2.7M vol
302Yvs326N
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
YES 20¢$2.2M vol
159Yvs163N
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
YES 12¢$2.2M vol
118Yvs209N
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YES 35¢$1.2M vol
141Yvs127N
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YES 64¢$1.2M vol
161Yvs136N
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
YES 74¢$785K vol
184Yvs142N
Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
YES 62¢$566K vol
43Yvs56N
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?
YES 56¢$539K vol
65Yvs99N