Geopolitics294 active · 872 open · 9,028 all-time
Polymarket Geopolitics Markets
Russia–Ukraine, Middle East, China–Taiwan — track whale consensus on the world's highest-stakes prediction markets, with real-time on-chain smart-money positioning.
Geopolitical markets on Polymarket attract some of the largest, most informed traders in prediction-market history — wallets that move six- and seven-figure positions on territorial control, ceasefire timelines, regime-change odds, and military escalations. OrcaLayer surfaces those wallets, their positions, and the consensus emerging from on-chain settlement data — not headlines.
We aggregate every geopolitics market currently open on Polymarket: territorial captures (e.g. Pokrovsk, Kupiansk), ceasefire deadlines (Ukraine, Gaza), regime outcomes (Iran, Venezuela), and broader conflict markets. Whale consensus is computed from smart-money wallets with $200K+ lifetime P&L and verified non-farmer behavior. NegRisk-multi-market positions are halved to avoid double-counting cross-listed bets.
For territorial markets, we cross-reference the ISW control map in real time — Polymarket resolves these markets based on ISW data, so price divergences from ground-truth control often signal mispriced contracts.
Top Geopolitics Markets
By volume
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
YES 14¢$38.5M vol
1101Yvs1267N
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
YES 41¢$7.3M vol
2753Yvs2782N
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
YES 48¢$4.4M vol
2424Yvs2487N
Iran leadership change by December 31?
YES 16¢$3.0M vol
383Yvs402N
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
YES 22¢$2.9M vol
1155Yvs1262N
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
YES 83¢$2.8M vol
482Yvs417N
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
YES 11¢$2.6M vol
1385Yvs1445N
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
YES 87¢$2.6M vol
1314Yvs1162N
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
YES 14¢$2.5M vol
461Yvs530N
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
YES 30¢$2.3M vol
2069Yvs2197N
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
YES 17¢$2.2M vol
909Yvs910N
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
YES 35¢$1.9M vol
1145Yvs1170N
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
YES 26¢$1.9M vol
580Yvs582N
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?
YES 51¢$1.9M vol
218Yvs219N
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
YES 74¢$1.9M vol
372Yvs359N
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
YES 47¢$1.8M vol
1933Yvs2039N
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
YES 22¢$1.8M vol
212Yvs214N
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
YES 14¢$1.7M vol
572Yvs633N
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
YES 16¢$1.7M vol
488Yvs340N
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
YES 54¢$1.6M vol
379Yvs413N
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?
YES 47¢$1.2M vol
78Yvs80N