Polymarket Geopolitics Markets

Geopolitical markets on Polymarket attract some of the largest, most informed traders in prediction-market history — wallets that move six- and seven-figure positions on territorial control, ceasefire timelines, regime-change odds, and military escalations. OrcaLayer surfaces those wallets, their positions, and the consensus emerging from on-chain settlement data — not headlines.

We aggregate every geopolitics market currently open on Polymarket: territorial captures (e.g. Pokrovsk, Kupiansk), ceasefire deadlines (Ukraine, Gaza), regime outcomes (Iran, Venezuela), and broader conflict markets. Whale consensus is computed from Smart Money wallets (55%+ win rate, positive P&L, 10+ resolved markets, farmers and bots excluded). NegRisk-multi-market positions are halved to avoid double-counting cross-listed bets.

For territorial markets, we cross-reference the ISW control map in real time — Polymarket resolves these markets based on ISW data, so price divergences from ground-truth control often signal mispriced contracts.