Geopolitics575 active · 1,782 open · 15,896 all-time

Polymarket Geopolitics Markets

Russia–Ukraine, Middle East, China–Taiwan — track whale consensus on the world's highest-stakes prediction markets, with real-time on-chain smart-money positioning.

Geopolitical markets on Polymarket attract some of the largest, most informed traders in prediction-market history — wallets that move six- and seven-figure positions on territorial control, ceasefire timelines, regime-change odds, and military escalations. OrcaLayer surfaces those wallets, their positions, and the consensus emerging from on-chain settlement data — not headlines.

We aggregate every geopolitics market currently open on Polymarket: territorial captures (e.g. Pokrovsk, Kupiansk), ceasefire deadlines (Ukraine, Gaza), regime outcomes (Iran, Venezuela), and broader conflict markets. Whale consensus is computed from Smart Money wallets (55%+ win rate, positive P&L, 10+ resolved markets, farmers and bots excluded). NegRisk-multi-market positions are halved to avoid double-counting cross-listed bets.

For territorial markets, we cross-reference the ISW control map in real time — Polymarket resolves these markets based on ISW data, so price divergences from ground-truth control often signal mispriced contracts.

Browse 575 active markets Open Monitor →

Top Geopolitics Markets

By volume

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

YES 17¢$74.0M vol

584Yvs1107N

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

YES 14¢$14.8M vol

315Yvs341N

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

YES 31¢$7.1M vol

356Yvs568N

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

YES 87¢$6.7M vol

339Yvs283N

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

YES 11¢$5.4M vol

234Yvs263N

Iran leadership change by December 31?

YES 12¢$5.2M vol

209Yvs270N

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?

YES 13¢$4.7M vol

199Yvs359N

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

YES 16¢$3.7M vol

111Yvs212N

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

YES 11¢$3.5M vol

72Yvs154N

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

YES 71¢$3.4M vol

340Yvs419N

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

YES 41¢$3.3M vol

280Yvs214N

Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

YES 49¢$3.0M vol

263Yvs216N

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

YES 17¢$2.8M vol

166Yvs189N

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

YES 81¢$2.7M vol

199Yvs89N

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

YES 41¢$2.7M vol

232Yvs251N

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

YES 26¢$2.7M vol

195Yvs370N

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

YES 24¢$2.3M vol

461Yvs348N

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

YES 84¢$2.0M vol

173Yvs80N

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?

YES 13¢$1.7M vol

110Yvs136N

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?

YES 17¢$1.7M vol

96Yvs149N

Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?

YES 67¢$1.4M vol

34Yvs69N

Top Geopolitics Whales

Full leaderboard →

denizz

0xbaa2…2c73 · 933 resolved markets

$2.3M

68.6% WR

classified

0x12d6…f2a8 · 1177 resolved markets

$999.4K

82.7% WR

Magamyman

0x4dfd…6e4a · 97 resolved markets

$808.6K

73.2% WR

cashy

0x8f42…b88f · 1011 resolved markets

$549.8K

74.3% WR

MEPP

0x6d9f…9790 · 1297 resolved markets

$546.1K

62.3% WR

Recent Whale Activity (last 48h)

Live feed →

SELL

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

eCash · 34m ago

$5K

SELL

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?

Parz1vaI · 3h ago

$8K

BUY

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

classified · 5h ago

$6K

SELL

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Valen9 · 6h ago

$8K

SELL

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

classified · 6h ago

$6K

SELL

Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?

tsybka · 9h ago

$5K

SELL

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?

classified · 9h ago

$7K

Track Russia–Ukraine territorial control in real time

ISW Territory Monitor mirrors the Institute for the Study of War control map and lets you set proximity alerts on individual cities or polygon zones. Polymarket territorial markets resolve based on this data.

Open Monitor

Frequently asked

How does Polymarket resolve Russia–Ukraine territory markets?

Most territorial-control markets on Polymarket resolve based on the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) interactive control map. A city is considered captured when ISW shades it as 'Russian-controlled' (not 'claimed' or 'reported'). OrcaLayer mirrors ISW data and lets you set proximity alerts on the front line — see /territory.

What is whale consensus and why does it matter for geopolitics?

Whale consensus aggregates the YES/NO positions of smart-money traders — wallets with a 55%+ market win rate, positive P&L and 10+ resolved markets, with farmers and bots filtered out. Smart whales win resolution about 67% of the time vs. 7.9% retail win rate. On every market on this page we show the count of smart whales on each side; a heavy lean (3:1 or stronger) is one of the strongest leading indicators we track.

Are these the most active geopolitics markets on Polymarket?

Yes — markets shown above are filtered to active (open), with non-zero volume, end date in the future, and YES price between 10¢ and 90¢ (we hide foregone-conclusion markets stuck near 0 or 1). Sorted by volume.

Can I track new whale entries in geopolitics in real time?

Premium subscribers get instant Telegram alerts whenever a smart whale opens a position above $10K in any market in this category. Free users can browse the live channel feed at /feed.

View 575 active Geopolitics markets