Geopolitics450 active · 1,565 open · 13,960 all-time
Polymarket Geopolitics Markets
Russia–Ukraine, Middle East, China–Taiwan — track whale consensus on the world's highest-stakes prediction markets, with real-time on-chain smart-money positioning.
Geopolitical markets on Polymarket attract some of the largest, most informed traders in prediction-market history — wallets that move six- and seven-figure positions on territorial control, ceasefire timelines, regime-change odds, and military escalations. OrcaLayer surfaces those wallets, their positions, and the consensus emerging from on-chain settlement data — not headlines.
We aggregate every geopolitics market currently open on Polymarket: territorial captures (e.g. Pokrovsk, Kupiansk), ceasefire deadlines (Ukraine, Gaza), regime outcomes (Iran, Venezuela), and broader conflict markets. Whale consensus is computed from smart-money wallets with $200K+ lifetime P&L and verified non-farmer behavior. NegRisk-multi-market positions are halved to avoid double-counting cross-listed bets.
For territorial markets, we cross-reference the ISW control map in real time — Polymarket resolves these markets based on ISW data, so price divergences from ground-truth control often signal mispriced contracts.
Top Geopolitics Markets
By volume
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
YES 14¢$68.9M vol
661Yvs1138N
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
YES 28¢$13.0M vol
348Yvs355N
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
YES 88¢$6.6M vol
392Yvs315N
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
YES 17¢$5.2M vol
255Yvs299N
Iran leadership change by December 31?
YES 11¢$4.8M vol
235Yvs290N
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
YES 11¢$4.5M vol
261Yvs544N
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
YES 30¢$4.4M vol
329Yvs450N
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
YES 60¢$3.3M vol
345Yvs441N
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
YES 12¢$3.2M vol
85Yvs161N
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
YES 11¢$3.2M vol
133Yvs160N
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
YES 23¢$2.7M vol
183Yvs182N
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
YES 46¢$2.6M vol
261Yvs271N
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
YES 64¢$2.4M vol
278Yvs212N
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
YES 52¢$2.3M vol
241Yvs210N
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
YES 30¢$2.2M vol
193Yvs366N
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
YES 37¢$2.2M vol
200Yvs257N
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
YES 37¢$2.2M vol
506Yvs367N
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
YES 12¢$1.8M vol
89Yvs116N
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
YES 17¢$1.7M vol
127Yvs151N
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?
YES 77¢$1.4M vol
38Yvs73N
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
YES 19¢$1.2M vol
99Yvs128N