Geopolitics424 active · 1,188 open · 10,803 all-time
Polymarket Geopolitics Markets
Russia–Ukraine, Middle East, China–Taiwan — track whale consensus on the world's highest-stakes prediction markets, with real-time on-chain smart-money positioning.
Geopolitical markets on Polymarket attract some of the largest, most informed traders in prediction-market history — wallets that move six- and seven-figure positions on territorial control, ceasefire timelines, regime-change odds, and military escalations. OrcaLayer surfaces those wallets, their positions, and the consensus emerging from on-chain settlement data — not headlines.
We aggregate every geopolitics market currently open on Polymarket: territorial captures (e.g. Pokrovsk, Kupiansk), ceasefire deadlines (Ukraine, Gaza), regime outcomes (Iran, Venezuela), and broader conflict markets. Whale consensus is computed from smart-money wallets with $200K+ lifetime P&L and verified non-farmer behavior. NegRisk-multi-market positions are halved to avoid double-counting cross-listed bets.
For territorial markets, we cross-reference the ISW control map in real time — Polymarket resolves these markets based on ISW data, so price divergences from ground-truth control often signal mispriced contracts.
Top Geopolitics Markets
By volume
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
YES 16¢$57.0M vol
504Yvs945N
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
YES 14¢$7.8M vol
167Yvs428N
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
YES 62¢$7.2M vol
252Yvs185N
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
YES 85¢$5.6M vol
357Yvs251N
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
YES 26¢$5.0M vol
230Yvs314N
Iran leadership change by December 31?
YES 16¢$3.7M vol
169Yvs218N
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
YES 82¢$2.7M vol
293Yvs377N
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
YES 34¢$2.7M vol
257Yvs281N
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
YES 13¢$2.6M vol
55Yvs142N
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
YES 19¢$2.5M vol
134Yvs158N
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
YES 35¢$2.1M vol
91Yvs130N
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
YES 40¢$2.0M vol
200Yvs248N
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
YES 30¢$2.0M vol
92Yvs146N
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?
YES 33¢$1.6M vol
235Yvs338N
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
YES 52¢$1.6M vol
125Yvs179N
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
YES 25¢$1.5M vol
101Yvs80N
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?
YES 44¢$1.2M vol
40Yvs67N
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
YES 35¢$1.2M vol
84Yvs113N
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
YES 57¢$1.2M vol
106Yvs99N