Polymarket Weather & Temperature Markets
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Weather markets: questions and answers
How do Polymarket weather markets work?
Each day Polymarket lists a market per city asking which temperature bucket the day's highest (or lowest) reading will fall into, settled against the official METAR observation at the reference station. Traders buy YES shares in a bucket; the price reflects the crowd's probability for that outcome.
How are the model probabilities calculated?
OrcaLayer runs the 51-member ECMWF ensemble forecast for every tracked station. The share of members landing in each temperature bucket becomes the model probability, refreshed through the day and blended with the live observations as the day develops.
What does the SIGNAL column mean?
It reads differently depending on whether the model and the market pick the same temperature bucket. When they agree, EDGE is the model probability minus the market's YES price on that bucket, in percentage points, and it can land either way. When they pick different buckets the row shows SPLIT with the distance between the two picks in degrees, because a signed edge there would only measure how little the model believes the market's favourite, which describes the market's confidence rather than an opportunity. Bucket widths sit close to the ensemble's average error, so both readings are disagreements worth checking, not trade calls.
Which cities are covered?
51 cities across the Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa and Oceania, covering every city with a daily Polymarket temperature market, from NYC, London and Tokyo to Lucknow, Jeddah and Buenos Aires. Each city page shows live observations, the forecast cone, order-book depth and trader track records.
Are the clouds on the planet view real?
Yes. The globe shows live cloud imagery from four geostationary weather satellites (NOAA's GOES-East and GOES-West, Japan's Himawari and EUMETSAT's Meteosat) stitched into one global picture. The infrared channel works day and night, and the composite refreshes every hour, so the cyclones and fronts you see are the planet's actual weather with at most an hour's delay.