Polymarket Weather & Temperature Markets
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Weather markets: questions and answers
How do Polymarket weather markets work?
Each day Polymarket lists a market per city asking which temperature bucket the day's highest (or lowest) reading will fall into, settled against the official METAR observation at the reference station. Traders buy YES shares in a bucket; the price reflects the crowd's probability for that outcome.
How are the model probabilities calculated?
OrcaLayer runs the 51-member ECMWF ensemble forecast for every tracked station. The share of members landing in each temperature bucket becomes the model probability, refreshed through the day and blended with the live observations as the day develops.
What does the EDGE column mean?
Edge is the model probability minus the market's YES price, in percentage points. A positive edge means the ensemble sees the bucket as more likely than the market is charging for it; a negative edge means the market is overpricing it.
Which cities are covered?
51 cities across the Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa and Oceania — every city with a daily Polymarket temperature market, from NYC, London and Tokyo to Lucknow, Jeddah and Buenos Aires. Each city page shows live observations, the forecast cone, order-book depth and trader track records.