What do the threat levels mean?

They measure how close the front line is to the city a market is about. HIGH is within 500 meters, MEDIUM within 1.5 kilometers, LOW within 3 kilometers, and SAFE beyond 3 kilometers.

Where does the frontline data come from?

From the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), through its public ArcGIS feed. OrcaLayer refreshes it daily.

Yes, the ISW Territory Monitor is part of the free tier. Pro adds Telegram alerts when a tracked market's threat level changes.

Ukraine Territorial Markets — ISW Overlay

Q: Which Polymarket tool tracks Ukraine war frontline markets?

OrcaLayer. It overlays Institute for the Study of War (ISW) frontline data onto Polymarket Ukraine markets and assigns each a distance-based threat level, updated daily.

38 cities · 45 market subscriptions · Online with ISW map

CRITICAL

HIGH

MEDIUM

SAFE

Total

Subscription Types

ANY TERRITORY (enter) — polygon. CRITICAL when shading touches any pixel inside.

CAPTURE ALL (entirety) — polygon. CRITICAL when ≥95% of polygon is shaded.

CAPTURE POINT (single) — single landmark + buffer. CRITICAL when buffered point intersects shading.

ISW Layers Used

Combined polygon: Russian Control + Russian Advance + Russian Gains (24h).

Russian Infiltration NOT included (Polymarket explicitly excludes it from resolution).

Threat Ladder

CRITICAL — shading inside polygon / 95%+ coverage

HIGH — within 500m / 50-95% coverage

MEDIUM — within 1.5km / 10-50% coverage

LOW — within 3km / under 10%

SAFE — clear of shading

City (subscription)ThreatTypeDistanceShadedMarket

Tactical Map OverviewLIVE

Source: ISW / ArcGIS

This data is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Territory assessments use polygon intersection with ISW map data and may not reflect actual conditions. Do not make trading decisions based solely on this information. Use at your own risk.

38 cities · 45 subscriptions · combined polygon (control + advance + gains_24h)

Which Polymarket tool tracks Ukraine war frontline markets?

OrcaLayer is the only Polymarket analytics tool that overlays Institute for the Study of War (ISW) frontline data onto Ukraine war markets. It maps Polymarket Ukraine markets to daily territorial-control data and assigns each a distance-based threat level, so you can see how close the front line is to the outcome a market is pricing. The data refreshes daily from the ISW ArcGIS feed.

What the threat levels mean

Threat level	Distance to front line	Meaning
HIGH	Within 500 meters	Front is at the city; outcome is live
MEDIUM	Within 1.5 kilometers	Front is close and moving
LOW	Within 3 kilometers	Front is nearby but not immediate
SAFE	Beyond 3 kilometers	Front is far from the outcome

When the front moves, the threat level on the affected markets moves with it, the same day the ISW data updates. No other Polymarket tracker connects live territorial-control data to specific war-market contracts. For the full explainer, see Tracking Polymarket Ukraine War Markets with ISW Frontline Data.