Polymarket Airdrop Checker
Wallet Readiness Report
Paste any Polymarket wallet — free, no login, no wallet connection. See how it scores against the eligibility metrics of ten published airdrop methodologies, and whether it looks like a farmer.
Built on 1.5B+ indexed fills · ranked against 1.9M+ traders with real Polymarket history
Your Polymarket airdrop eligibility score
One page, one wallet, three numbers: an absolute score, a population percentile, and a farmer risk read. Every input is public on-chain data. Paste a wallet above and press Analyze — the full report renders right here, nothing is stored or shared until you share it.
Polymarket has not announced airdrop criteria. Nobody knows the formula — anyone claiming otherwise is guessing or lying. This score is modelled on ten published airdrop methodologies and on Polymarket's own Taker Rebate weighting formula. It is an estimate of wallet quality, not a prediction of allocation.
Read-only. We never ask you to connect a wallet or sign anything. Any site that does is a drainer. OrcaLayer lives only at orcalayer.com — no airdrop bot, no Telegram claim link, no other domain.
Polymarket airdrop eligibility criteria: how the score is built
Published in full, because a checker that hides its formula is indistinguishable from a scam. Weights derived from ten programmes that published their methodology: Uniswap, dYdX, Arbitrum, Optimism, Blur, Jito, Jupiter, Drift, LayerZero and EigenLayer. Hyperliquid, the other major distribution of the period, published no allocation criteria at all, so nothing here is derived from it.
Reviewed on 25 August 2026 against four further programmes with published methodologies — Starknet, zkSync, Ethena and Aevo. They corroborated the existing weights; none were changed.
The weighted-volume formula Polymarket published
The arithmetic is exact. The model is a guess. Change the weights and this number moves; the percentile does not. The uncertainty lives in the weights.
Category weights and taker tiers
These weights come from a taker rebate programme — a liquidity incentive, not an airdrop formula. The programme is taker-only and has existed since 28 May 2026; we apply its weighting to history going back to 2022 because it is the only document in which Polymarket has stated how it values a trade. Weights outside Sports, Crypto and Geopolitics are not published and default to 1.0. Treat it as the best available proxy, not as the announced formula. Note: US-election markets sit in POLITICS, not GEOPOLITICS — the zero weight does not erase the 2024 election cohort.
Deliberately excluded
Blind spots we cannot see
The same detector powers Farmer Filter, which removes 139,355 farmed wallets from every OrcaLayer leaderboard. The count quoted on this page is smaller — 122,372 — because it covers only ranked wallets (≥10 fills and ≥$100 notional). Same detector, same threshold, two different populations. Both measured 31 August 2026.
When is the Polymarket airdrop? Snapshot and date status
No date exists. No snapshot has been announced, and the only statement on record about a snapshot is a single-source May 2026 remark that one had not yet been taken. The strongest confirmed facts are verbal: Polymarket's CMO said in October 2025 that “there will be a token, there will be an airdrop”, and the POLY trademarks were filed in February 2026. Everything else — TGE date, tokenomics, supply share, eligibility criteria, US eligibility — is unknown. As of May 2026, prediction markets priced a 2026 launch at roughly 53%, down from ~71% in February. The tracker below is the maintained log of what is actually confirmed, with sources.
Polymarket airdrop tracker: what is actually confirmed
Maintained log with sources. Most airdrop pages present rumours as fact — this is the correction. Last reviewed 2026-08-15.
Active scam warning. As of August 2026, market.polydistrib[.]com is running a "Polymarket Community Rewards" page with fake "Official Polymarket" badges and a "Check my eligibility" button that drains wallets. Polymarket users lost roughly $2.9M to phishing in June 2026. No claim page exists. OrcaLayer will never ask you to connect a wallet or sign a message on this page.
Polymarket airdrop calculator: model it yourself
Three assumptions in, one number out. No criteria exist, so there is no share to compute — only the size of the pool a given valuation would imply, and the blind average it would spread.
These are your assumptions, not our forecast. This models the size of a hypothetical community pool — it does not estimate your share, because no criteria exist to compute a share from.
Spread across all 1,917,958 ranked wallets (1,917,958) that averages $209 — a blind average before any weighting, minimum or exclusion.
How to farm the Polymarket airdrop — and what history actually rewarded
Every airdrop breeds a farming industry, and every major programme since 2023 has hunted it. What history rewarded was never the farming checklist — it was the behaviour farmers found most expensive to fake.
The full read of all fifteen programmes, with the primary source for every claim, is in what 15 airdrop programmes actually rewarded.
The common thread: time in market, capital genuinely at risk, and organic breadth beat transaction-count grinding in every single programme we studied. Polymarket's own published weighting — size × (1 − entry price) × category weight — already prices near-certain fills at almost nothing, which is precisely the trade farmers make most.
When Polymarket publishes real criteria
We send one email: the criteria in plain text, plus the distribution breakdown — who got what, what share of wallets got zero, which cohorts were cut. Plus your wallet rescored against the real formula. If an official programme flags your wallet, this page is your evidence trail.
Polymarket airdrop FAQ
Is the Polymarket airdrop confirmed?+
A token and an airdrop were confirmed verbally by Polymarket's CMO in October 2025, and the company filed trademarks for POLY in February 2026. No snapshot date, no criteria, no tokenomics have ever been published. As of May 2026, prediction markets priced a 2026 token launch at roughly 53% — down from ~71% in February.
Can this tool tell me how many POLY I will get?+
No, and neither can any other tool. Nobody outside Polymarket knows the formula. Any site quoting you a token amount is multiplying your volume by a number they invented. This page scores wallet quality against ten published airdrop methodologies.
Do I need to connect my wallet?+
Never. You paste a public address; everything is computed from public on-chain data. If any site asks you to connect a wallet or sign a message to “check eligibility”, it is stealing your funds.
What is the Sybil risk score?+
It estimates how much your wallet resembles the patterns that got addresses excluded from past airdrops: activity compressed into a short window, trades at near-certain prices, dust-sized fills and self-matching. Funding-graph analysis is NOT checked — we say so on the result instead of pretending. High volume with high sybil risk historically scored worse than modest volume with clean behaviour.
Why does my huge volume not give a huge score?+
Because that is not how airdrops have worked. On the dYdX ladder, above $10,000 of volume, each tenfold increase bought roughly one and a half times more tokens. Arbitrum capped its whole score at 15 points and its payout table saturated at 12, so the last three points bought nothing at all. Volume compressed logarithmically is the historically accurate model.
Is OrcaLayer affiliated with Polymarket?+
No. OrcaLayer is an independent analytics platform. We are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or speaking for Polymarket, and we have no inside information about any token.
Why does this show no trades for my MetaMask address?+
Polymarket trades through a proxy wallet it creates for you, not through the address you connect with. Open your Polymarket profile — the address in the URL is the one to paste here. You can also search by your Polymarket username.
Can I check by Polymarket username instead of a 0x address?+
Yes — type the username and pick the wallet from the dropdown. We resolve display names and pseudonyms across our whale index, which most checkers cannot.
Is there a poly airdrop checker?+
This is one. People shorten the name to “poly airdrop”, and it means the same thing: paste any Polymarket wallet address and get a score, a percentile and a sybil read, with no login and no wallet connection. What no checker has, ours included, is official criteria — Polymarket has never published any.
Is there a Polymarket points program?+
No. Polymarket has never run an official points programme. Articles describing “×2 for a 72-hour hold” are fabricated.