OrcaLayer Research
Deep-dives into Polymarket data: how smart money beats retail, methodology behind our numbers, ISW territory case studies, and what 470M+ on-chain trades reveal about prediction markets.
Will Russia Capture Lyman? Polymarket Odds & ISW Map
Live Polymarket odds on whether Russia captures Lyman in 2026, why the market sits where it does, and how it resolves on the ISW map OrcaLayer tracks.
Where Smart Money Disagrees With the Crowd: World Cup 2026
Five World Cup 2026 markets where Polymarket smart money splits from the crowd — England, USA, Brazil, France, Norway — and the methodology behind each gap.
What smart money thinks OpenAI, SpaceX & Anthropic are worth
Polymarket just opened Pre-IPO valuation markets. We pulled the on-chain positioning of proven smart-money wallets — and they're fading the crowd's hype on every higher tier.
Polymarket whale trackers compared — the honest read on 5 tools
Side-by-side review of Polymarket Analytics, Hashdive, Polywhaler, Polysights, PredictFolio, and OrcaLayer. Which to use for what — including where competitors win.
What 470 million trades reveal about Polymarket farmers
Farmers are the wallets quietly distorting every Polymarket leaderboard. We indexed every trade since the contract launched and built a filter that catches them. Here's what they actually look like, and why the platform's whale rankings are systematically misleading without it.
How retail loses 92% against smart money on Polymarket
Across 470M trades on Polymarket, retail wallets close in profit on just 7.9% of resolved markets. Smart money sits at 67%. Here's the structural reason for that gap — and what retail does to make it bigger.
Why a 99% Win Rate on Polymarket trackers is a trap
The shocking 99% WR you see on whale trackers usually isn't skill — it's NegRisk double-counting, farming behavior, and small-stakes near-certainties. Here's how to spot it, and what real smart money looks like.