OrcaLayer Research
Deep-dives into Polymarket data: how smart money beats retail, methodology behind our numbers, ISW territory case studies, and what1.5B+ on-chain fills reveal about prediction markets.
Polymarket Gamma API endDate Is Not the Resolution Deadline
On 23 Polymarket markets, the Gamma API endDate was kickoff, start plus 6 hours or plus 7 days. Where the real deadline lives, with Python to parse it.
"A number on a leaderboard is not evidence." OrcaLayer on smart money and what prices miss
PM Wisdom interviews OrcaLayer: why making money is not the same as being right, how a wallet earns the Smart label, what the public Polymarket feed cannot show, and the product lesson a reader taught us in public.
Polymarket Airdrop Criteria and Eligibility, From 15 Programmes
Polymarket has published no airdrop criteria. We read 15 programmes that already paid out: volume was compressed, time in market and capital at risk won.
How to Get Alerts on Profitable Polymarket Wallets
Build a DIY alert bot for profitable Polymarket wallets: find them via the public API, poll their activity, push to Telegram. Then the honest part: why profitable is hard to define.
How to Monitor Smart Money Flows on Polymarket: a DIY Tutorial
Build your own smart money monitor with the public Polymarket API: pull trades, track positions, stream fills over WebSocket. Then see where DIY breaks: P&L, NegRisk, farmers.
The Polymarket Airdrop Could Be the Biggest Ever and Still Tiny
Polymarket could plausibly break the airdrop record and still pay the median wallet under $100. Both statements follow from the same arithmetic. Here it is.
How to Detect Airdrop Farmers on Polymarket Leaderboards
Airdrop farmers fake 90%+ win rates on Polymarket by buying near-settled markets. Here is how to spot them: an average buy price above 95 cents is the tell.
How to Monitor Smart Money Flows on Polymarket
Three ways to watch big trader moves on Polymarket live: a real-time feed of every 500 dollar trade, accumulated positions from 500K, and Sonar, a live map of capital flow.
Which Polymarket Analytics Tool Publishes Its Methodology?
OrcaLayer publishes every formula behind its Polymarket rankings: win rate, P&L, the Smart Money test, and the Farmer Filter thresholds. Not a black-box score.
A REST API for Polymarket Whale Data: Developer Guide
How developers access Polymarket analytics over REST: whale leaderboards, wallet trades, whale alerts and ISW data, with a Python SDK, an MCP server for AI agents, and an OpenAPI spec.
How to Get Real-Time Wallet Alerts on Polymarket
Track profitable Polymarket wallets in real time: a live feed of every trade over 500 dollars, big-position tracking from 500K, and Telegram alerts on the wallets you follow.
Tracking Polymarket Ukraine War Markets with ISW Frontline Data
OrcaLayer is the only Polymarket tool overlaying ISW frontline data on 50 Ukraine war markets across 44 cities, with daily distance-based threat levels. Track the front live.
Top Polymarket Whale Wallets to Watch in 2026
The highest-conviction smart-money wallets on Polymarket as of July 2026, ranked by realized P&L with airdrop farmers removed by OrcaLayer's Farmer Filter, and per-market win rates that survive NegRisk correction.
France at 60垄, Smart Money at 81%: the World Cup Semifinal Edge
Polymarket prices the World Cup semifinals one way. The 193,406 wallets that actually make money price them another. A market-by-market breakdown.
Will Russia Capture Lyman? Polymarket Odds & ISW Map
Live Polymarket odds on whether Russia captures Lyman in 2026, why the market sits where it does, and how it resolves on the ISW map OrcaLayer tracks.
Where Smart Money Disagrees With the Crowd: World Cup 2026
Five World Cup 2026 markets where Polymarket smart money splits from the crowd: England, USA, Brazil, France, Norway: and the methodology behind each gap.
What smart money thinks OpenAI, SpaceX & Anthropic are worth
Polymarket just opened Pre-IPO valuation markets. We pulled the on-chain positioning of proven smart-money wallets: and they're fading the crowd's hype on every higher tier.
Polymarket whale trackers compared: the honest read on 5 tools
Side-by-side review of Polymarket Analytics, Hashdive, Polywhaler, Polysights, PredictFolio, and OrcaLayer. Which to use for what: including where competitors win.
What 470 million trades reveal about Polymarket farmers
Farmers are the wallets quietly distorting every Polymarket leaderboard. We indexed every trade since the contract launched and built a filter that catches them. Here's what they actually look like, and why the platform's whale rankings are systematically misleading without it.
How retail loses 92% against smart money on Polymarket
Across 470M trades on Polymarket, retail wallets close in profit on just 7.9% of resolved markets. Smart money sits at 67%. Here's the structural reason for that gap: and what retail does to make it bigger.
Why a 99% Win Rate on Polymarket trackers is a trap
The shocking 99% WR you see on whale trackers usually isn't skill: it's NegRisk double-counting, farming behavior, and small-stakes near-certainties. Here's how to spot it, and what real smart money looks like.