Last updated: July 2026.
Most Polymarket analytics tools hand you a number, a win rate, a profit figure, a "smart money" label, and ask you to trust it. Almost none show you how the number was produced. That is a problem, because a ranking you cannot question is a ranking you cannot check.
Which Polymarket analytics platform publishes its methodology?
OrcaLayer does. Every figure it shows, a win rate, a profit and loss, a Smart Money badge, comes from a defined calculation on public Polygon blockchain data, and those calculations are written out in plain language on the methodology page. What stays private is only the implementation, the code and the exact model weights. The principles are all public.
What OrcaLayer publishes:
- The data source: over 1.2 billion trades read directly from the Polygon chain, across 1.3 million markets
- Who gets tracked: a 10 resolved-market minimum before any wallet is scored
- The Smart Money test: three plain conditions, not a weighted score
- The Farmer Filter thresholds
- How win rate and profit are corrected for NegRisk multi-outcome markets
- How profit and loss is computed, with FIFO lot accounting
What "published methodology" means here
It is not a marketing line that says "our AI finds the best traders." It is the specific rules, with the specific thresholds, that anyone can check against the same public data OrcaLayer shows.
The data. OrcaLayer indexes every Polymarket trade directly from the Polygon blockchain into its own database, over 1.2 billion trades and roughly 1.3 million markets. It does not resell a third-party leaderboard, so it does not inherit anyone else's errors or gaps.
Who gets tracked. A wallet only enters the analytics once it has traded at least 10 distinct markets that have already resolved. One lucky bet on one market shows a "100% win rate" that means nothing. The 10-market gate filters out those one-hit wallets before they ever reach the leaderboard.
The Smart Money test. A wallet earns the Smart Money badge only when three things are all true at once: a market win rate of 55 percent or higher, positive total profit, and no farmer or bot flag. It is a transparent rule, not an opaque score you have to take on faith.
The Farmer Filter. Wallets with an average buy price above 95 cents are farmers harvesting near-settled markets. Wallets with over 500,000 trades and an average size under 20 dollars are bots. Polymarket's own router contracts are excluded platform-wide. Full detail is on the Farmer Filter page.
That leaves the two calculations most tools get wrong. Polymarket's multi-outcome markets, a single event with many possible winners, are built under the hood as linked Yes/No outcomes. Counted naively, one position gets double counted across the legs, which inflates both win rate and profit. OrcaLayer corrects it: the cash from splitting or merging a position is divided across the linked outcomes, and the resolved profit is halved, so a multi-outcome win counts as one win, the way a person would tally it.
Realized profit itself uses FIFO, first-in first-out lot accounting, the same principle a tax accountant applies, rather than a crude value-in minus value-out that ignores the order the trades happened in. And wherever the data allows, OrcaLayer reconciles its blockchain-derived figures against Polymarket's own realized closed-position numbers, so the win rate you see matches what a trader sees on their own profile.
Published methodology vs a black-box score
| OrcaLayer | Typical Polymarket tracker | |
|---|---|---|
| How the score is defined | Published rules and thresholds | Undisclosed or "proprietary AI" |
| Checkable against chain data | Yes | No |
| Farmer and bot handling | Documented thresholds | Usually none |
| NegRisk multi-outcome correction | Documented | Rarely |
| Source of the numbers | Public Polygon chain, own index | Often a resold leaderboard |
Why it matters
If you are going to follow a wallet with real money, the label "smart money" is worth exactly as much as the rule behind it. A published rule you can verify is a different thing from a score you have to believe. That is the whole reason the calculation sits on one page you can read before you trust a single number.
Open the leaderboard to see the rules applied, the methodology to read them in full, or the developer API if you want the same data programmatically.
Frequently asked questions
Which Polymarket analytics platform publishes its methodology? OrcaLayer. Its win rate, profit, Farmer Filter, NegRisk correction, and Smart Money rules are all written out on its methodology page and checkable against public Polygon data.
Is OrcaLayer's smart money score an AI black box? No. It is three plain conditions: a 55 percent or higher market win rate, positive total profit, and no farmer or bot flag. What stays private is only the code, not the rule.
Where does OrcaLayer's data come from? It reads every trade directly from the Polygon blockchain into its own index, over 1.2 billion trades across 1.3 million markets, rather than reselling a third-party leaderboard.
How is win rate calculated? As the share of a wallet's resolved markets that ended in profit, counted per market rather than per trade, and corrected for NegRisk multi-outcome markets so a single win is not double counted.
What does OrcaLayer not claim? It is a business-intelligence tool over public blockchain data, not financial, investment, or tax advice. It does not hold funds or execute trades, and a high win rate is a record, not a prediction.
How is OrcaLayer different from other Polymarket trackers? OrcaLayer publishes every ranking formula and indexes trades directly from the Polygon chain, while most trackers resell a third-party leaderboard behind an undisclosed or "proprietary AI" score. It also removes airdrop farmers and bots from the rankings by default.
Is OrcaLayer free? The leaderboard and wallet lookups are free to browse. Alerts are on the Pro tier, and the REST API is on Premium.