ORCALAYER · TOURNAMENT TRACKERWorld Cup 2026,
World Cup 2026,
priced by smart money
Live Polymarket odds on all 312 tournament markets — plus the one thing odds boards can't show you: where verified profitable wallets disagree with the crowd.
312
Markets tracked
1,847
Smart wallets
$8.2M
24h volume
KICK-OFF IN
01D08H53M23S
🇲🇽 Mexico vs 🇿🇦 South Africa · Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
WINNER MARKET
Who wins it all
Top 16 by market price. The smart-signal column flags teams where verified profitable wallets lean differently from the crowd.
#TEAMSMART SIGNALVOLUMEPRICE ↓
01🇪🇸Spain↑ SMART BULLISH$35.3M16.3¢02🇫🇷France↑ SMART BULLISH$42.3M16.1¢03🏴England↑ SMART BULLISH$30.6M10.8¢04🇵🇹Portugal↑ SMART BULLISH$36.7M10.2¢05🇦🇷Argentina↑ SMART BULLISH$32.2M8.6¢06🇧🇷Brazil↑ SMART BULLISH$31.9M8.5¢07🇩🇪Germany↑ SMART BULLISH$34.3M5.3¢08🇳🇱Netherlands↑ SMART BULLISH$35.9M4.0¢09🇳🇴Norway↑ SMART BULLISH$35.6M2.5¢10🇧🇪Belgium↑ SMART BULLISH$37.2M2.1¢11🇨🇴Colombia↑ SMART BULLISH$37.0M1.9¢12🇲🇦Morocco↑ SMART BULLISH$41.4M1.8¢13🇯🇵Japan↑ SMART BULLISH$38.4M1.8¢14🇲🇽Mexico↑ SMART BULLISH$41.9M1.4¢15🇺🇸USA↑ SMART BULLISH$53.0M1.1¢16🇺🇾Uruguay↑ SMART BULLISH$37.4M1.1¢Price = market-implied probability to win the tournament. Source: Polymarket, refreshed every 5 min.All 48 teams →
GROUP STAGE · JUN 11–27
All 12 groups, priced live
Advance and group-winner probabilities for every team, straight from the order books.
▌ ON TRACK TO ADVANCE (TOP 2)ADV % = QUALIFY FROM GROUP · WIN % = WIN GROUP
✦ SIGNATURE SIGNAL
Where smart money disagrees
The five widest gaps right now between the crowd price and the aggregate position of verified profitable wallets. A gap is a question, not a tip — but it's usually worth asking.
England to win Group L
21 pp
DIVERGENCE
France to win the World Cup
8 pp
DIVERGENCE
USA to win Group D
14 pp
DIVERGENCE
Brazil to win the World Cup
12 pp
DIVERGENCE
Norway to win Group I
11 pp
DIVERGENCE
LIVE FEED
Watch the money move
Every trade above $500 on World Cup markets. ✦ marks wallets that pass our smart-money screen.
RECENT TRADES · SMART WALLETS UPDATED 12S AGO
11m✦BUYWill Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0x1341…0853$53238.0¢11m✦BUYWill Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0xe1a6…d584$86862.0¢11m✦BUYWill Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0xca89…7bc4$99262.0¢11m✦BUYWill Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0xfb13…5946$74462.0¢11m✦BUYWill Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0x7236…ea53$1,98462.0¢What counts as smart?
Same checklist the orca keeps on the clipboard — applied to every wallet before it moves our signal.
☑ 12-month positive P&L, ≥50 resolved markets
☑ Airdrop-farmer filter active
☑ Wash-trade & self-match screening
☐ Top favorite confirmed — markets decide
GOLDEN BOOT
Top scorer market
#PLAYERTEAMVOLUMEPRICE ↓
01KMKylian Mbappe🇫🇷France$269K15.5¢02HKHarry Kane🏴England$181K12.5¢03MOMikel Oyarzabal🇪🇸Spain$84K7.5¢04EHErling Haaland🇳🇴Norway$157K6.5¢05MOMichael Olise🇫🇷France$202K6.2¢06CRCristiano Ronaldo🇵🇹Portugal$143K4.7¢07JAJulian Alvarez🇦🇷Argentina$120K4.3¢08LMLionel Messi🇦🇷Argentina$159K4.2¢Golden Boot market — most goals scored, tournament total.Full market →
FAQ
Fair questions
What is smart-money divergence?−
We track wallets with a verified history of profitable prediction-market trading. When their aggregate positioning on a market differs from the crowd price by more than 8 percentage points, we flag it as a divergence — a signal that informed money disagrees with the consensus.
Where does the price data come from?+
How do you filter out airdrop farmers?+
How often do odds update?+
Is this betting advice?+