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ORCALAYER · TOURNAMENT TRACKER

World Cup 2026,
priced by smart money

Live Polymarket odds on all 312 tournament markets — plus the one thing odds boards can't show you: where verified profitable wallets disagree with the crowd.

Explore winner odds →How we track smart money
312
Markets tracked
1,847
Smart wallets
$8.2M
24h volume
OrcaLayer orca analyst at the press deck, checklist in hand
PRESS DECK · MATCHDAY −1FARMER FILTER: ACTIVE
FINAL KICK-OFF IN
00D00H00M00S
🇲🇽 Mexico vs 🇿🇦 South Africa
WINNER MARKET

Who wins it all

Top 16 by market price. The smart-signal column flags teams where verified profitable wallets lean differently from the crowd.

#TEAMSMART SIGNALVOLUMEPRICE ↓
Price = market-implied probability to win the tournament. Source: Polymarket, refreshed every 5 min.All 48 teams →
KNOCKOUT STAGE · JUL 9–19
PRICES REFRESH EVERY 5 MIN

The bracket, priced live

Advance and title probabilities for every knockout matchup, straight from the order books. No pundits — the market prices each path in real time.

QUARTERFINALS · JUL 9–11
SEMIFINALS · JUL 14–15
FINAL · JUL 19
QF1 · JUL 9 · BOSTONFT
FRFrance2
MAMorocco0
QF2 · JUL 10 · LOS ANGELESFT
ESSpain2
BEBelgium1
QF3 · JUL 11 · MIAMIFT
NONorway1
ENEngland2
QF4 · JUL 11 · KANSAS CITYFT
ARArgentina3
CHSwitzerland1
SF1 · JUL 14 · DALLASFT
FRFrance0
ESSpain2
H2H · EURO 24 SEMI · ESP 2–1 FRA
SF2 · JUL 15 · ATLANTAFT
ENEngland1
ARArgentina2
FINAL · JUL 19 · NEW YORK NJFT
ESSpain1
ARArgentina0
3RD PLACE · JUL 18 · MIAMI
ADV ¢ = PRICE OF $1 IF TEAM ADVANCES · FINAL ¢ = REACH-THE-FINAL MARKET · TITLE ¢ = WINNER MARKET · SOURCE: POLYMARKET
GROUP STAGE · JUN 11–27

All 12 groups, priced live

Advance and group-winner probabilities for every team, straight from the order books.

Group AADV %  WIN %

🇲🇽Mexico78%52%🇰🇷South Korea55%21%🇨🇿Czechia48%18%🇿🇦South Africa24%9%

Group BADV %  WIN %

🇨🇦Canada71%44%🇧🇦Bosnia & Herz.52%26%🇨🇴Colombia58%24%🇮🇶Iraq16%5%

Group CADV %  WIN %

🇧🇷Brazil91%71%🇲🇦Morocco62%18%🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland41%8%🇭🇹Haiti11%3%

Group DADV %  WIN %

🇺🇸USA80%49%🇹🇷Türkiye51%22%🇵🇾Paraguay44%19%🇦🇺Australia30%10%

Group EADV %  WIN %

🇩🇪Germany94%76%🇪🇨Ecuador61%14%🇨🇮Côte d'Ivoire36%7%🇨🇼Curaçao9%3%

Group FADV %  WIN %

🇳🇱Netherlands90%68%🇯🇵Japan58%17%🇸🇪Sweden37%10%🇹🇳Tunisia21%5%

Group GADV %  WIN %

🇧🇪Belgium89%67%🇪🇬Egypt54%16%🇮🇷Iran42%12%🇳🇿New Zealand15%5%

Group HADV %  WIN %

🇪🇸Spain95%79%🇺🇾Uruguay72%15%🇸🇦Saudi Arabia20%4%🇨🇻Cape Verde13%2%

Group IADV %  WIN %

🇫🇷France92%70%🇳🇴Norway64%17%🇸🇳Senegal48%10%🇺🇿Uzbekistan8%3%

Group JADV %  WIN %

🇦🇷Argentina93%74%🇨🇭Switzerland60%14%🇶🇦Qatar24%6%🇨🇩DR Congo19%5%

Group KADV %  WIN %

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England94%75%🇭🇷Croatia63%15%🇬🇭Ghana33%7%🇵🇦Panama10%3%

Group LADV %  WIN %

🇵🇹Portugal92%72%🇦🇹Austria59%16%🇩🇿Algeria38%9%🇯🇴Jordan11%3%
▌ ON TRACK TO ADVANCE (TOP 2)ADV % = QUALIFY FROM GROUP · WIN % = WIN GROUP
✦ SIGNATURE SIGNAL

Where smart money disagrees

The five widest gaps right now between the crowd price and the aggregate position of verified profitable wallets. A gap is a question, not a tip — but it's usually worth asking.

England to win Group L
21 pp
DIVERGENCE
CROWD75%
SMART54%
France to win the World Cup
8 pp
DIVERGENCE
CROWD16%
SMART24%
USA to win Group D
14 pp
DIVERGENCE
CROWD80%
SMART66%
Brazil to win the World Cup
12 pp
DIVERGENCE
CROWD31%
SMART19%
Norway to win Group I
11 pp
DIVERGENCE
CROWD17%
SMART28%
LIVE FEED

Watch the money move

Every trade above $500 on World Cup markets. ✦ marks wallets that pass our smart-money screen.

RECENT TRADES · SMART WALLETS UPDATED 12S AGO
12s✦BUYFrance — World Cup winner0x7a3f…c2d1$48,20016.5¢1m✦BUYNorway to win Group I0x05dd…9e7b$22,75027.9¢4m✦SELLBrazil to reach the semifinals0xf2a8…1107$31,40030.6¢9m✦BUYGermany — World Cup winner0x4be0…77c8$17,9006.1¢

What counts as smart?

Same checklist the orca keeps on the clipboard — applied to every wallet before it moves our signal.

☑ 12-month positive P&L, ≥50 resolved markets
☑ Airdrop-farmer filter active
☑ Wash-trade & self-match screening
☐ Top favorite confirmed — markets decide
GOLDEN BOOT

Top scorer market

#PLAYERTEAMVOLUMEPRICE ↓
Golden Boot market — most goals scored, tournament total.Full market →
FAQ

Fair questions

What is smart-money divergence?−
We track wallets with a verified history of profitable prediction-market trading. When their aggregate positioning on a market differs from the crowd price by more than 8 percentage points, we flag it as a divergence — a signal that informed money disagrees with the consensus.
Where does the price data come from?+
How do you filter out airdrop farmers?+
How often do odds update?+
Is this betting advice?+
Compare traders→Head-to-head P&L on WC marketsSmart wallet leaderboard→Top 100 by tournament P&LMethodology→How we define smart moneyAll live markets→312 World Cup markets, one screen