The Farmer Filter
A 90% win rate looks elite. More often than not, it's a farmer.
OrcaLayer detects the wallets that game Polymarket leaderboards — and strips them out, so what you see is real conviction, not penny-harvesting.
Of the 70,711 Polymarket wallets showing a 90%+ win rate, 43,179 — about 61% — are farmers harvesting near-resolved markets. Remove them and most of the “flawless” leaderboard simply disappears.
What is a farmer?
A farmer is a wallet that manufactures a great-looking record without taking real risk. The play is simple: find a market that is already all-but-decided, buy the winning side for almost its full value, and collect the last sliver.
Example.A market will clearly resolve “Yes.” The farmer buys Yes at 96¢. It settles at $1.00.
Profit: 4¢ on the dollar — near-guaranteed, near-zero risk. Do it across thousands of markets and you farm two things at once: a spotless win rate and trading volume that qualifies for airdrop and rewards programs. Skill involved: almost none.
Why standard leaderboards mislead you
Sort any raw Polymarket leaderboard by win rate and the top is a wall of 95–100% records. It looks like a roster of geniuses to copy. It isn't — it's mostly farmers, because their penny-harvesting strategy is engineered to produce exactly that number.
The data is blunt: more than 6 in 10of the wallets with a 90%+ win rate are farmers. If you pick “whales” to follow off a raw leaderboard, the odds are you are following someone who never took a real position in their life — and whose 96¢ entries you can't profitably copy anyway.
How we catch them
We separate three distinct kinds of leaderboard noise — independently, so each is filterable on its own.
Wallets whose average buy price sits above 95¢. That is the mathematical fingerprint of penny-harvesting — you do not accumulate an average that high by taking genuine, uncertain positions. Flagged and excluded from Smart Money.
Wallets with over 500,000 trades and an average trade size under $20 — the signature of an automated market-making or micro-arbitrage program, not a human with conviction. Detected separately and filterable from any view.
Polymarket's own protocol contracts (the CTF and NegRisk exchange routers) sit on both sides of ordinary trades. Left in, a router can masquerade as one hyper-active “insider” wallet. Excluded platform-wide.
These thresholds are part of our published methodology — nothing here is a black box.
What the filter removes
Across more than 1.3 million traders we have indexed, roughly 114,000 — about 1 in 12 — are farmers, and they cluster exactly where it does the most damage: near the top of an unfiltered win-rate ranking. Strip them out and the picture flips from “a thousand flawless geniuses” to the much smaller, much more honest set of wallets that actually take and win real positions.
That honest set is what we call Smart Money: a wallet with a 55%+ market win rate, positive total P&L, and no farmer flag. Just under 198,000 wallets qualify — and those are the ones worth watching.
See the filtered leaderboard
Every ranking on OrcaLayer is farmer-filtered by default. Look at who is actually good — not who games the rules.
Figures are computed nightly from on-chain Polygon data and will shift over time. Questions? @orcalayer on Telegram.