Economics217 active · 669 open · 19,377 all-time
Polymarket Economics Markets
Fed rate decisions, CPI prints, jobs reports, recession odds, GDP — track whale consensus on every macroeconomic market open on Polymarket.
Economics markets on Polymarket are where macro traders, rates desks, and forecasters concentrate. From Fed FOMC outcomes to monthly CPI/PPI/jobs prints to recession-by-year markets, this category is one of the highest information-density on the platform — many participants are professionals using Polymarket as a calibration check on their own pricing.
We aggregate every open economics market: Fed rate decisions and dot-plot outcomes, inflation prints (CPI, PPI, PCE), labor data (NFP, unemployment, JOLTS), GDP and growth markets, recession-by-date markets, and major policy events. Whale consensus is computed from Smart Money wallets (55%+ win rate, positive P&L, 10+ resolved markets, farmers and bots excluded).
Macro markets often pre-price data better than economist consensus surveys — Polymarket whales lean on actual money, not directional opinion. Below you'll find both top markets sorted by volume and the most consistently profitable economics whales.
Top Economics Markets
By volume
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?
YES 11¢$2.4M vol
31Yvs92N
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
YES 11¢$1.8M vol
64Yvs158N
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?
YES 19¢$1.4M vol
46Yvs96N
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
YES 76¢$812K vol
63Yvs93N
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
YES 86¢$747K vol
98Yvs51N
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?
YES 22¢$743K vol
73Yvs81N
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
YES 62¢$574K vol
30Yvs81N
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?
YES 46¢$312K vol
27Yvs36N
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?
YES 15¢$223K vol
27Yvs34N
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in October?
YES 11¢$221K vol
14Yvs28N
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in October?
YES 27¢$209K vol
29Yvs18N
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?
YES 69¢$201K vol
62Yvs75N
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?
YES 40¢$187K vol
33Yvs32N
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?
YES 11¢$185K vol
27Yvs74N
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?
YES 14¢$177K vol
44Yvs54N
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?
YES 79¢$143K vol
20Yvs24N
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?
YES 22¢$139K vol
14Yvs82N