Economics205 active · 712 open · 20,391 all-time
Polymarket Economics Markets
Fed rate decisions, CPI prints, jobs reports, recession odds, GDP — track whale consensus on every macroeconomic market open on Polymarket.
Economics markets on Polymarket are where macro traders, rates desks, and forecasters concentrate. From Fed FOMC outcomes to monthly CPI/PPI/jobs prints to recession-by-year markets, this category is one of the highest information-density on the platform — many participants are professionals using Polymarket as a calibration check on their own pricing.
We aggregate every open economics market: Fed rate decisions and dot-plot outcomes, inflation prints (CPI, PPI, PCE), labor data (NFP, unemployment, JOLTS), GDP and growth markets, recession-by-date markets, and major policy events. Whale consensus is computed from Smart Money wallets (55%+ win rate, positive P&L, 10+ resolved markets, farmers and bots excluded).
Macro markets often pre-price data better than economist consensus surveys — Polymarket whales lean on actual money, not directional opinion. Below you'll find both top markets sorted by volume and the most consistently profitable economics whales.
Top Economics Markets
By volume
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
YES 80¢$5.2M vol
220Yvs133N
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?
YES 20¢$4.2M vol
123Yvs131N
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
YES 81¢$1.7M vol
109Yvs38N
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?
YES 18¢$1.4M vol
55Yvs105N
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
YES 79¢$587K vol
21Yvs89N
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?
YES 18¢$428K vol
25Yvs61N
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?
YES 79¢$358K vol
28Yvs56N
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?
YES 10¢$271K vol
18Yvs26N
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?
YES 88¢$221K vol
63Yvs73N
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
YES 82¢$205K vol
29Yvs59N
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
YES 18¢$196K vol
23Yvs58N
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by March 31, 2027?
YES 15¢$157K vol
8Yvs36N
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?
YES 81¢$156K vol
24Yvs26N
Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
YES 19¢$122K vol
15Yvs58N
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
YES 77¢$109K vol
16Yvs67N
Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?
YES 77¢$98K vol
7Yvs39N
Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027?
YES 16¢$94K vol
96Yvs33N
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?
YES 71¢$89K vol
34Yvs43N
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement?
YES 30¢$83K vol
20Yvs50N