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Economics56 days left

Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?

Trade on Polymarket
YES Price
22¢
22% implied
NO Price
78¢
78% implied
Volume
$713.1K
5,171 trades
Smart Whales
127
of 716 traders · 4 on both sides

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

5 MARKETS · $1.33M MATCHED

Smart Money Consensus

45 YESvs86 NO
34%66%
66% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 19% YES by dollars · 28 YES vs 20 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 96%· net of hedges
+13 new YES$241+10 new NO$4.2K
$127 of this was bought on both sides by the same 4 buyers — left out of momentum
0 smart whales1 smart whale
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
$1.9K of $67.0K is hedged across different prices by 4 wallets. True directional: YES $12.6K·NO $52.5K
YES Team
Total Invested
$19.5K
Avg Win Rate
61.3%
Aggregate P&L
+$243(+1.3%)
Whales
45
R
Roflan-ludoman🥇hedged
Entry 19¢·24,273.2 shares·also $389 on NO
+$577INV $4.6K · WR 62.1%
N
notssf3🥈
Entry 44¢·6,205.1 shares
$-1417INV $2.8K · WR 62.1%
G
gambler925🥉hedged
Entry 15¢·17,239 shares·also $13.5K on NO
+$1131INV $2.6K · WR 56.2%
T
truthteller
Entry 25¢·7,006.3 shares
$-274INV $1.8K · WR 57.6%
M
MEPP
Entry 26¢·6,837.3 shares
$-297INV $1.8K · WR 64.0%
7
0x71e11e0f...hedged
Entry 21¢·4,018 shares·also $288 on NO
+$35INV $829 · WR 55.4%
T
Tenebrus7Proven
Entry 27¢·2,000 shares
$-110INV $540 · WR 74.3%
A
Anjunhedged
Entry 19¢·2,208.6 shares·also $1.7K on NO
+$60INV $415 · WR 58.5%
T
TheReturnOfDarthMaulhedged
Entry 13¢·2,000 shares·also $42.6K on NO
+$160INV $270 · WR 63.1%
D
debasedProven
Entry 9¢·2,210 shares
+$267INV $208 · WR 65.5%
Showing top 10 of 45

Smart Whale Trades

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Price History (YES)

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Smart money 33% YES: 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026