Tenebrus7 · Polymarket wallet 0xa8c6…44e8

+$172,236 lifetime P&L · 74.3% win rate · 4,500 resolved markets · 0xa8c63f775ddbbe66b56614191747def3021444e8

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Wallet snapshot

Tenebrus7 has made 180,259 trades on Polymarket across 5,125 markets, $40M in volume. Most of it is in politics (35%) and geopolitics (29%). On 4,500 resolved markets the win rate is 74.3%, lifetime P&L +$172K. It holds 184 open positions right now; the largest is Yes on "Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?". Last trade: Nov 4, 2026.

Largest open positions

Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes · $88K · 50¢ → 68¢
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No · $42K · 50¢ → 33¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No · $18K · 75¢ → 98¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?Yes · $10K · 90¢ → 97¢
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?No · $9,322 · 78¢ → 70¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?No · $7,548 · 72¢ → 75¢
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes · $4,885 · 97¢ → 98¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?No · $4,500 · 26¢ → 23¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Yes · $4,077 · 57¢ → 66¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No · $3,580 · 88¢ → 90¢

Latest closed positions

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo · +$1,697 · Nov 4, 2026
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes · +$115 · Nov 4, 2026
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No · -$15K · Nov 4, 2026
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?Yes · -$561 · Nov 4, 2026
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?Yes · -$591 · Nov 4, 2026
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?No · +$211 · Nov 4, 2026

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