Economics57 days left
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?
YES Price
21¢
21% implied
NO Price
79¢
79% implied
Volume
$1.38M
5,806 trades
Smart Whales
163
of 1,453 traders
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
15 MARKETS · $7.14M MATCHEDSmart Money
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026
0¢+24¢$156.5K19/61Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026+24¢0¢
$156.5K19/61
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026
0¢+16¢$152.6K13/70Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026+16¢0¢
$152.6K13/70
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026
0¢+21¢$157.8K15/57Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026+21¢0¢
$157.8K15/57
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026
0¢+19¢$274.2K13/57Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026+19¢0¢
$274.2K13/57
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.25% at the end of 2026
0¢+21¢$101.6K14/54Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.25% at the end of 2026+21¢0¢
$101.6K14/54
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026
0¢+32¢$189.4K34/73Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026+32¢0¢
$189.4K34/73
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2026
0¢+12¢$75.2K10/72Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2026+12¢0¢
$75.2K10/72
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026
0¢+27¢$504.8K22/60Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026+27¢0¢
$504.8K22/60
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026
0¢+23¢$90.6K19/62Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026+23¢0¢
$90.6K19/62
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026
1¢+18¢$209.9K16/68Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026+18¢1¢
$209.9K16/68
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026
1¢+34¢$541.5K56/105Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026+34¢1¢
$541.5K56/105
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026←
21¢+15¢$1.38M59/104Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026←+15¢21¢
$1.38M59/104
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026
74¢−46¢$585.3K34/87Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026−46¢74¢
$585.3K34/87
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Smart Money Consensus
56 YESvs107 NO
34%66%
66% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 90% YES by dollars · 28 YES vs 26 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 57%
+5 new YES$133+8 new NO$176
0 smart whales5 smart whales
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $3.1K is directional: YES $2.8K·NO $322YES Team
Total Invested
$8.3K
Avg Win Rate
71.8%
Aggregate P&L
-$1.6K(-19.5%)
Whales
56
D
devote666🥇hedged
Entry 99¢·1,142 shares·also $19 on NO
Invested
$1.1K
Win Rate
88.9%
Position P&L
$-881
$-881INV $1.1K · WR 88.9%
A
akimbogod🥈
Entry 37¢·2,967.5 shares
Invested
$1.1K
Win Rate
66.2%
Position P&L
$-548
$-548INV $1.1K · WR 66.2%
N
nurseEnroll🥉hedged
Entry 98¢·1,016 shares·also $17 on NO
Invested
$998
Win Rate
73.1%
Position P&L
$-780
$-780INV $998 · WR 73.1%
R
ratehikes
Entry 19¢·4,774 shares
Invested
$898
Win Rate
57.7%
Position P&L
$-22
$-22INV $898 · WR 57.7%
L
lake-cupboardhedged
Entry 98¢·895 shares·also $16 on NO
Invested
$877
Win Rate
76.2%
Position P&L
$-685
$-685INV $877 · WR 76.2%
T
TheReturnOfDarthMaul
Entry 32¢·1,016.9 shares
Invested
$321
Win Rate
63.1%
Position P&L
$-135
$-135INV $321 · WR 63.1%
D
DancewithRisk
Entry 33¢·972.5 shares
Invested
$319
Win Rate
65.5%
Position P&L
$-141
$-141INV $319 · WR 65.5%
N
newnewuser
Entry 14¢·424 shares
Invested
$58
Win Rate
61.5%
Position P&L
+$20
+$20INV $58 · WR 61.5%
Q
quizpm14hedged
Entry 2¢·1,660 shares·also $1.6K on NO
Invested
$30
Win Rate
77.8%
Position P&L
+$326
+$326INV $30 · WR 77.8%
C
convince.mirror.lockhedged
Entry 2¢·1,715 shares·also $1.7K on NO
Invested
$29
Win Rate
75.9%
Position P&L
+$339
+$339INV $29 · WR 75.9%
Showing top 10 of 56
NO Team
Total Invested
$15.1K
Avg Win Rate
73.9%
Aggregate P&L
+$3.9K(+26.0%)
Whales
107
C
convince.mirror.lock🥇hedged
Entry 98¢·1,715 shares·also $29 on YES
Invested
$1.7K
Win Rate
75.9%
Position P&L
$-337
$-337INV $1.7K · WR 75.9%
Q
quizpm14🥈hedged
Entry 98¢·1,660 shares·also $30 on YES
Invested
$1.6K
Win Rate
77.8%
Position P&L
$-328
$-328INV $1.6K · WR 77.8%
B
brick2510🥉hedged
Entry 99¢·1,267 shares·also $22 on YES
Invested
$1.2K
Win Rate
64.0%
Position P&L
$-254
$-254INV $1.2K · WR 64.0%
I
influenz.eth
Entry 47¢·2,347.2 shares
Invested
$1.1K
Win Rate
85.8%
Position P&L
+$730
+$730INV $1.1K · WR 85.8%
T
tortoise-theme-whiphedged
Entry 99¢·944 shares·also $13 on YES
Invested
$932
Win Rate
68.2%
Position P&L
$-190
$-190INV $932 · WR 68.2%
B
base44hedged
Entry 98¢·946 shares·also $17 on YES
Invested
$927
Win Rate
63.6%
Position P&L
$-184
$-184INV $927 · WR 63.6%
B
balthazar
Entry 83¢·939.3 shares
Invested
$776
Win Rate
72.1%
Position P&L
$-38
$-38INV $776 · WR 72.1%
A
abandon.denial.regularhedged
Entry 98¢·756 shares·also $15 on YES
Invested
$742
Win Rate
85.0%
Position P&L
$-149
$-149INV $742 · WR 85.0%
P
podairpod
Entry 36¢·810.4 shares
Invested
$295
Win Rate
59.2%
Position P&L
+$342
+$342INV $295 · WR 59.2%
R
rainbowlilies
Entry 10¢·1,743.3 shares
Invested
$168
Win Rate
83.9%
Position P&L
+$1201
+$1201INV $168 · WR 83.9%
Showing top 10 of 107
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