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Economics35 days left

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

Trade on Polymarket
YES Price
79¢
79% implied
NO Price
21¢
21% implied
Volume
$3.05M
10,479 trades
Smart Whales
263
of 1,326 traders · 6 on both sides

Fed Decision in December?

11 MARKETS · $12.73M MATCHED

Smart Money Consensus

141 YESvs128 NO
52%48%
52% of smart money holding this market is on YESNet of both-sides wallets: 95% YES by dollars · 107 YES vs 42 NO taking a side · 3 on both sides
Last 24h FlowYES momentum 57%· net of hedges
+127 new YES$203.4K+130 new NO$156.1K
$36.2K of this was bought on both sides by the same 29 buyers — left out of momentum
26 smart whales47 smart whales
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
$561 of $444.9K is held equally on both sides by 1 wallet — not a bet on the outcome. $239 is hedged across different prices by 5 wallets. True directional: YES $421.4K·NO $22.7K
YES Team
Total Invested
$440.5K
Avg Win Rate
66.6%
Aggregate P&L
+$200.6K(+45.5%)
Whales
141
T
TheReturnOfDarthMaul🥇
Entry 75¢·217,004.3 shares
+$7052INV $163.3K · WR 63.1%
R
ratehikes🥈
Entry 34¢·376,020.3 shares
+$165494INV $129.7K · WR 57.7%
M
MysticFind🥉
Entry 70¢·53,000 shares
+$4505INV $37.1K · WR 88.6%
M
MisTKy
Entry 79¢·18,606.1 shares
$-27INV $14.6K · WR 69.8%
O
oral.kite5633
Entry 77¢·15,000 shares
+$215INV $11.6K · WR 86.2%
T
TheyAreTakingTheHobitsToIsengard
Entry 69¢·12,986.7 shares
+$1234INV $9.0K · WR 65.2%
P
polmarke195
Entry 77¢·10,929.7 shares
+$175INV $8.4K · WR 87.1%
K
KimJonEn
Entry 71¢·11,362.4 shares
+$841INV $8.1K · WR 74.3%
N
nonkenny90Proven
Entry 79¢·6,575.1 shares
$-33INV $5.2K · WR 91.0%
X
x26Proven
Entry 74¢·5,000 shares
+$211INV $3.7K · WR 77.7%
Showing top 10 of 141

Smart Whale Trades

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Price History (YES)

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Smart money 55% YES: the Fed increase interest rates by 25…