Economics80 days left
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
YES Price
68¢
68% implied
NO Price
32¢
32% implied
Volume
$299.6K
3,077 trades
Smart Whales
104
of 405 traders · 2 on both sides
Fed Decision in December?
9 MARKETS · $4.22M MATCHEDSmart Money
by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting
56¢−8¢$1.82M116/124by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting−8¢56¢
$1.82M116/124
by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting
1¢+27¢$1.27M33/83by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting+27¢1¢
$1.27M33/83
by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting
1¢+27¢$176.9K17/43by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting+27¢1¢
$176.9K17/43
by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting
2¢+22¢$238.2K19/59by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting+22¢2¢
$238.2K19/59
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting
31¢+15¢$213.4K49/58Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting+15¢31¢
$213.4K49/58
by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting←
68¢−40¢$299.6K29/76by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting←−40¢68¢
$299.6K29/76
by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting
2¢+27¢$172.3K19/46by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting+27¢2¢
$172.3K19/46
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
29 YESvs77 NO
27%73%
73% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 73% YES by dollars · 13 YES vs 23 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowYES momentum 95%
+2 new YES$1.0K+4 new NO$59
1 smart whale1 smart whale
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
$495 of $25.4K is hedged across different prices by 2 wallets. True directional: YES $18.1K·NO $6.8KYES Team
Total Invested
$22.6K
Avg Win Rate
65.4%
Aggregate P&L
+$7.1K(+31.2%)
Whales
29
A
ArmageddonRewardsBilly🥇
Entry 64¢·12,665.5 shares
Invested
$8.1K
Win Rate
58.1%
Position P&L
+$405
+$405INV $8.1K · WR 58.1%
S
sorcerer.00🥈
Entry 59¢·7,235.5 shares
Invested
$4.3K
Win Rate
77.6%
Position P&L
+$589
+$589INV $4.3K · WR 77.6%
X
x26🥉
Entry 62¢·3,500 shares
Invested
$2.2K
Win Rate
77.6%
Position P&L
+$199
+$199INV $2.2K · WR 77.6%
M
mnuop8890hedged
Entry 42¢·4,508.3 shares·also $4.1K on NO
Invested
$1.9K
Win Rate
65.6%
Position P&L
+$1137
+$1137INV $1.9K · WR 65.6%
S
S4uron
Entry 64¢·2,292.8 shares
Invested
$1.5K
Win Rate
55.0%
Position P&L
+$87
+$87INV $1.5K · WR 55.0%
R
RememberAmalek
Entry 53¢·1,323 shares
Invested
$702
Win Rate
65.2%
Position P&L
+$191
+$191INV $702 · WR 65.2%
P
podairpod
Entry 36¢·1,523 shares
Invested
$548
Win Rate
60.3%
Position P&L
+$480
+$480INV $548 · WR 60.3%
T
toby777777
Entry 69¢·735.3 shares
Invested
$508
Win Rate
60.3%
Position P&L
$-12
$-12INV $508 · WR 60.3%
T
Tenebrus7
Entry 50¢·1,000 shares
Invested
$498
Win Rate
74.4%
Position P&L
+$177
+$177INV $498 · WR 74.4%
C
c10rmainhedged
Entry 22¢·1,731 shares·also $935 on NO
Invested
$378
Win Rate
59.5%
Position P&L
+$791
+$791INV $378 · WR 59.5%
Showing top 10 of 29
NO Team
Total Invested
$49.2K
Avg Win Rate
74.8%
Aggregate P&L
-$11.9K(-24.1%)
Whales
77
H
HolyMoses7🥇
Entry 48¢·11,278.4 shares
Invested
$5.4K
Win Rate
77.4%
Position P&L
$-1706
$-1706INV $5.4K · WR 77.4%
H
highstakebet🥈
Entry 48¢·10,033.9 shares
Invested
$4.8K
Win Rate
85.9%
Position P&L
$-1549
$-1549INV $4.8K · WR 85.9%
M
mnuop8890🥉hedged
Entry 59¢·6,894.2 shares·also $1.9K on YES
Invested
$4.1K
Win Rate
65.6%
Position P&L
$-1821
$-1821INV $4.1K · WR 65.6%
S
sdhykyhedged
Entry 50¢·7,767.4 shares·also $196 on YES
Invested
$3.9K
Win Rate
58.4%
Position P&L
$-1391
$-1391INV $3.9K · WR 58.4%
B
Bigggggggg
Entry 54¢·4,728.5 shares
Invested
$2.6K
Win Rate
85.9%
Position P&L
$-1019
$-1019INV $2.6K · WR 85.9%
K
korda77
Entry 42¢·5,073.8 shares
Invested
$2.1K
Win Rate
85.0%
Position P&L
$-477
$-477INV $2.1K · WR 85.0%
D
0xd32ce89f...
Entry 53¢·3,582 shares
Invested
$1.9K
Win Rate
83.2%
Position P&L
$-724
$-724INV $1.9K · WR 83.2%
P
puravida
Entry 71¢·2,500.3 shares
Invested
$1.8K
Win Rate
60.3%
Position P&L
$-951
$-951INV $1.8K · WR 60.3%
X
XAE12Archangel
Entry 34¢·5,000 shares
Invested
$1.7K
Win Rate
77.9%
Position P&L
$-75
$-75INV $1.7K · WR 77.9%
V
VictorLudorum
Entry 55¢·3,022.8 shares
Invested
$1.7K
Win Rate
88.2%
Position P&L
$-684
$-684INV $1.7K · WR 88.2%
Showing top 10 of 77
Smart Whale Trades
Loading trades...
Price History (YES)
Loading chart...
Loaded in 2ms (cached)