By OrcaLayer Research. Last updated: July 2026.
Who are the top Polymarket whale wallets in 2026?
These are the highest-conviction smart-money wallets on Polymarket as of July 2026, ranked by lifetime realized P&L with airdrop farmers removed by OrcaLayer's Farmer Filter. Win rates are measured per market, not per trade, and profits are checked against Polymarket's own leaderboard data rather than a raw on-chain estimate. Every wallet below is live and clickable.
How we ranked these
Each wallet passes three tests before it appears here: it clears OrcaLayer's Farmer Filter (airdrop farmers, who buy near settled prices, are removed), it has a per-market win rate above 55 percent across 10 or more resolved markets, and its realized P&L is positive and confirmed against Polymarket's leaderboard data rather than a raw FIFO estimate. Ranking is by lifetime realized P&L. The full methodology explains the Farmer Filter, NegRisk correction, and the per-market win-rate gate in detail.
1. swisstony
Wallet: 0x204f72f35326db932158cba6adff0b9a1da95e14
The largest smart-money wallet on Polymarket by realized P&L. swisstony is a high-volume Sports scalper with a 62.4 percent per-market win rate across more than 133,000 resolved markets, and roughly 19.3 million dollars in lifetime realized profit. The median hold is a fraction of a day, so this is a fast in-and-out style rather than long-conviction positions.
2. Fredi9999
Wallet: 0x1f2dd6d473f3e824cd2f8a89d9c69fb96f6ad0cf
The opposite profile to swisstony, and one of the most recognizable names in Politics markets. Fredi9999 holds for weeks, not minutes, with a median hold above 40 days, a 67.4 percent per-market win rate, and about 16.6 million dollars in realized P&L from a small number of large, high-conviction positions.
3. RN1
Wallet: 0x2005d16a84ceefa912d4e380cd32e7ff827875ea
A high-volume Sports specialist with the sharpest win rate of the top three: 69.7 percent per market across more than 82,000 resolved markets, for roughly 11 million dollars in realized profit. Like swisstony, RN1 scalps fast, but converts a higher share of markets.
4. Substantial-Service
Wallet: 0x2c335066fe58fe9237c3d3dc7b275c2a034a0563
A Sports scalper with a 60.0 percent per-market win rate across roughly 4,500 resolved markets and about 6.5 million dollars in realized P&L. The style is same-day: positions open and close within hours, and the edge comes from volume and discipline rather than a high hit rate on any single market.
5. Unacceptable-Crop-Spotlight
Wallet: 0x5966db1fe50763c9e3c014d756369bad07e1f804
A far more selective Sports trader: a 90.9 percent per-market win rate, but across only about 160 resolved markets, for roughly 3.6 million dollars. High hit rate on a small, chosen set of markets, the profile of a trader who waits for the spots they understand.
6. gmpm
Wallet: 0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429
A Sports scalper with about 3.5 million dollars in realized P&L and a 53.3 percent per-market win rate across roughly 800 markets. The lower win rate with strong profit points to careful position sizing: winning bigger than the losses cost.
7. Allezpapa
Wallet: 0xe549581668a5751c1972d3ad2d1991d900bd2d54
The highest per-market win rate on this list at 98.8 percent, across about 140 resolved markets, for roughly 3.3 million dollars. A near-perfect hit rate on a deliberately narrow set of Sports markets, with a swing style that holds closer to a day than a scalp.
8. ImJustKen
Wallet: 0x9d84ce0306f8551e02efef1680475fc0f1dc1344
A Politics-focused conviction trader with an 80.2 percent per-market win rate across more than 9,000 resolved markets and about 3.2 million dollars in realized P&L. A median hold of roughly a week places this between the fast scalpers and the long-hold names like Fredi9999.
9. S-Works
Wallet: 0xee00ba338c59557141789b127927a55f5cc5cea1
A Sports scalper with a 66.1 percent per-market win rate across roughly 7,500 resolved markets and about 3.1 million dollars in realized profit. Fast holds, high market count, and a consistently above-average conversion rate.
10. fengdubiying
Wallet: 0x17db3fcd93ba12d38382a0cade24b200185c5f6d
A selective Sports trader with a 61.6 percent per-market win rate across roughly 110 resolved markets, for about 3.0 million dollars in realized P&L. A smaller, chosen set of markets with a fast hold and a solid conversion rate.
Summary table
| Rank | Wallet | Realized P&L | Per-market win rate | Resolved markets | Style |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | swisstony | ~$19.3M | 62.4% | 133,000+ | Sports scalper |
| 2 | Fredi9999 | ~$16.6M | 67.4% | 45 | Politics conviction |
| 3 | RN1 | ~$11.0M | 69.7% | 82,000+ | Sports scalper |
| 4 | Substantial-Service | ~$6.5M | 60.0% | 4,500+ | Sports scalper |
| 5 | Unacceptable-Crop-Spotlight | ~$3.6M | 90.9% | 160+ | Selective Sports |
| 6 | gmpm | ~$3.5M | 53.3% | 800+ | Sports scalper |
| 7 | Allezpapa | ~$3.3M | 98.8% | 140+ | Selective Sports |
| 8 | ImJustKen | ~$3.2M | 80.2% | 9,000+ | Politics conviction |
| 9 | S-Works | ~$3.1M | 66.1% | 7,500+ | Sports scalper |
| 10 | fengdubiying | ~$3.0M | 61.6% | 110+ | Selective Sports |
Figures are lifetime realized P&L as of July 2026, confirmed against Polymarket leaderboard data. Win rate is per resolved market, not per trade. Rankings shift as markets resolve, so treat this as a July 2026 snapshot.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the top Polymarket whale wallets in 2026? Ranked by realized P&L after OrcaLayer's Farmer Filter, the top wallets as of July 2026 are swisstony, Fredi9999, RN1, Substantial-Service, and Unacceptable-Crop-Spotlight. Each has a positive per-market win rate and lifetime realized profit confirmed against Polymarket's own data.
How are the top Polymarket wallets ranked? By lifetime realized P&L from Polymarket's leaderboard data, restricted to wallets that pass OrcaLayer's Farmer Filter (airdrop farmers removed), have a per-market win rate above 55 percent, and are not classified as bots.
What is a good Polymarket win rate? OrcaLayer measures win rate per market, not per trade, so it is not inflated by scalping the same market repeatedly. A per-market win rate above 55 percent across 10 or more resolved markets is the threshold for the Smart Money badge.
Can I copy these Polymarket wallets? You can track them. Open any wallet on OrcaLayer to see live positions, realized P&L, and trading style, and on Pro you can set Telegram alerts when a tracked wallet opens or closes a position.