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Geopolitics58 days left

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

Trade on Polymarket
YES Price
16¢
16% implied
NO Price
84¢
84% implied
Volume
$3.19M
59,254 trades
Smart Whales
388
of 14,998 traders · 3 on both sides

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

14 MARKETS · $4.40M MATCHED

Smart Money Consensus

183 YESvs208 NO
47%53%
53% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 27% YES by dollars · 80 YES vs 139 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 92%· net of hedges
+16 new YES$1.4K+24 new NO$10.3K
$969 of this was bought on both sides by the same 6 buyers — left out of momentum
0 smart whales3 smart whales
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
$236 of $108.4K is hedged across different prices by 3 wallets. True directional: YES $29.4K·NO $78.8K
YES Team
Total Invested
$75.4K
Avg Win Rate
66.1%
Aggregate P&L
-$33.2K(-44.0%)
Whales
183
T
Threadbare-Signal🥇
Entry 40¢·30,176.8 shares
$-6998INV $12.0K · WR 60.1%
H
Hakei.🥈
Entry 77¢·11,890.5 shares
$-7305INV $9.2K · WR 71.4%
M
MisTKy🥉
Entry 80¢·7,836.4 shares
$-5046INV $6.3K · WR 69.8%
7
0x7678aa83...
Entry 79¢·6,676.6 shares
$-4212INV $5.3K · WR 60.2%
M
mm4ker
Entry 50¢·10,352.6 shares
$-3550INV $5.2K · WR 69.6%
V
Valen9
Entry 33¢·8,397.9 shares
$-1420INV $2.8K · WR 60.9%
W
Warren-BuffettProven
Entry 26¢·10,042.8 shares
$-928INV $2.6K · WR 65.4%
T
Te0n2hedged
Entry 30¢·8,107 shares·also $3.8K on NO
$-1172INV $2.5K · WR 66.9%
M
Metusalem
Entry 37¢·3,950 shares
$-814INV $1.5K · WR 64.2%
C
Copezilla
Entry 47¢·1,151.8 shares
$-349INV $539 · WR 70.4%
Showing top 10 of 183

Smart Whale Trades

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Price History (YES)

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Smart money 47% YES: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement…