Threadbare-Signal · Polymarket wallet 0xb886…81b3

Wallet snapshot

Threadbare-Signal has made 269,478 trades on Polymarket across 1,537 markets, $3.4M in volume. Most of it is in politics (32%) and geopolitics (31%). On 1,297 resolved markets the win rate is 60.2%, lifetime P&L +$34K. It holds 115 open positions right now; the largest is Yes on "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?". Last trade: Nov 5, 2026.

Largest open positions

• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes · $13K · 22¢ → 11¢
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Yes · $9,626 · 8¢ → 2¢
• US strike on Cuba by December 31?Yes · $7,737 · 33¢ → 11¢
• Nothing Ever Happens: 2026No · $4,771 · 32¢ → 12¢
• Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?Yes · $4,614 · 17¢ → 9¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Yes · $4,074 · 40¢ → 14¢
• Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Yes · $1,906 · 18¢ → 3¢
• Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Yes · $1,739 · 5¢ → 2¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027?Yes · $1,724 · 48¢ → 51¢
• China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Yes · $1,177 · 12¢ → 3¢

Latest closed positions

• Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes · +$11 · Nov 4, 2026
• Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes · +$249 · Nov 4, 2026
• Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?Yes · -$1 · Nov 4, 2026
• Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?No · +$6 · Nov 4, 2026
• Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?Yes · +$1 · Nov 4, 2026
• Will the Democrats win the Colorado Senate race in 2026?No · +$3 · Nov 4, 2026
• Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Snapshot from OrcaLayer data, refreshed every 10 minutes.