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Geopolitics81 days left

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

View on Polymarket
YES Price
2¢
2% implied
NO Price
98¢
98% implied
Volume
$43.89M
412,885 trades
Smart Whales
4122
of 57,658 traders · 52 on both sides

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

3 MARKETS · $47.82M MATCHED

Smart Money Consensus

1521 YESvs2653 NO
36%64%
64% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 2% YES by dollars · 195 YES vs 1545 NO taking a side · 33 on both sides
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 99%· net of hedges
+62 new YES$809+76 new NO$80.1K
$742 of this was bought on both sides by the same 16 buyers — left out of momentum
13 smart whales14 smart whales
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
$142.5K of $2.90M is held equally on both sides by 31 wallets — not a bet on the outcome. $1.1K is hedged across different prices by 21 wallets. True directional: YES $55.3K·NO $2.70M
YES Team
Total Invested
$988.9K
Avg Win Rate
74.4%
Aggregate P&L
-$587.2K(-59.4%)
Whales
1,521
5
0x5bffcf56...🥇hedged
Entry 100¢·268,091 shares·also $24.1K on NO
$-261870INV $267.9K · WR 73.8%
F
FortunatelyFestive🥈hedged
Entry 99¢·95,882 shares·also $16.2K on NO
$-92470INV $94.6K · WR 86.0%
C
cqs🥉hedged
Entry 100¢·76,431.4 shares·also $13.0K on NO
$-74508INV $76.2K · WR 72.8%
I
ImJustKen
Entry 98¢·52,428.8 shares
$-50293INV $51.5K · WR 61.2%
T
Threadbare-Signal
Entry 8¢·583,372.8 shares
$-32319INV $45.4K · WR 60.2%
M
mofumofuboth sides
Entry 50¢·87,203.8 shares·also $43.6K on NO
$-41727INV $43.6K · WR 83.5%
D
dfde3both sides
Entry 50¢·25,101.8 shares·also $12.6K on NO
$-12011INV $12.6K · WR 82.4%
A
adsasdsdsffgboth sides
Entry 50¢·10,674 shares·also $5.3K on NO
$-5108INV $5.3K · WR 87.9%
C
charliealmanack
Entry 10¢·50,000 shares
$-3859INV $5.0K · WR 64.1%
J
Jaded-Hallboth sides
Entry 50¢·5,000 shares·also $2.5K on NO
$-2393INV $2.5K · WR 73.8%
Showing top 10 of 1,521

Smart Whale Trades

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Price History (YES)

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