YES Price
2ยข
2% implied
NO Price
98ยข
98% implied
Volume
$43.27M
409,153 trades
Smart Whales
4018
of 57,291 traders ยท 50 on both sides
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
3 MARKETS ยท $47.05M MATCHEDHover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
1477 YESvs2591 NO
36%64%
64% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 2% YES by dollars ยท 195 YES vs 1517 NO taking a side ยท 31 on both sides
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 99%ยท net of hedges
+30 new YES$1.1K+90 new NO$76.2K
$1.3K of this was bought on both sides by the same 16 buyers โ left out of momentum
2 smart whales26 smart whales
Both-sides exposure ยท invested basis
$168.3K of $2.99M is held equally on both sides by 29 wallets โ not a bet on the outcome. $1.1K is hedged across different prices by 21 wallets. True directional: YES $55.2KยทNO $2.76MYES Team
Total Invested
$967.1K
Avg Win Rate
74.2%
Aggregate P&L
-$596.6K(-61.7%)
Whales
1,477
5
0x5bffcf56...๐ฅhedged
Entry 100ยขยท268,091 sharesยทalso $24.1K on NO
Invested
$267.9K
Win Rate
73.8%
Position P&L
$-261334
$-261334INV $267.9K ยท WR 73.8%
F
FortunatelyFestive๐ฅhedged
Entry 99ยขยท95,882 sharesยทalso $16.2K on NO
Invested
$94.6K
Win Rate
86.0%
Position P&L
$-92279
$-92279INV $94.6K ยท WR 86.0%
C
cqs๐ฅhedged
Entry 100ยขยท76,431.4 sharesยทalso $13.0K on NO
Invested
$76.2K
Win Rate
72.8%
Position P&L
$-74355
$-74355INV $76.2K ยท WR 72.8%
I
ImJustKen
Entry 98ยขยท52,428.8 shares
Invested
$51.5K
Win Rate
61.3%
Position P&L
$-50188
$-50188INV $51.5K ยท WR 61.3%
T
Threadbare-Signal
Entry 8ยขยท583,372.8 shares
Invested
$45.4K
Win Rate
60.6%
Position P&L
$-31153
$-31153INV $45.4K ยท WR 60.6%
M
mofumofuboth sides
Entry 50ยขยท87,203.8 sharesยทalso $43.6K on NO
Invested
$43.6K
Win Rate
84.3%
Position P&L
$-41465
$-41465INV $43.6K ยท WR 84.3%
P
probabilityboth sides
Entry 50ยขยท27,000 sharesยทalso $13.5K on NO
Invested
$13.5K
Win Rate
59.7%
Position P&L
$-12839
$-12839INV $13.5K ยท WR 59.7%
D
dfde3both sides
Entry 50ยขยท25,101.8 sharesยทalso $12.6K on NO
Invested
$12.6K
Win Rate
82.4%
Position P&L
$-11936
$-11936INV $12.6K ยท WR 82.4%
A
adsasdsdsffgboth sides
Entry 50ยขยท10,674 sharesยทalso $5.3K on NO
Invested
$5.3K
Win Rate
88.2%
Position P&L
$-5075
$-5075INV $5.3K ยท WR 88.2%
C
charliealmanack
Entry 10ยขยท50,000 shares
Invested
$5.0K
Win Rate
64.1%
Position P&L
$-3759
$-3759INV $5.0K ยท WR 64.1%
Showing top 10 of 1,477
NO Team
Total Invested
$3.10M
Avg Win Rate
78.0%
Aggregate P&L
+$610.8K(+19.7%)
Whales
2,591
A
Avamax๐ฅ
Entry 95ยขยท546,006.6 shares
Invested
$520.2K
Win Rate
79.5%
Position P&L
+$12456
+$12456INV $520.2K ยท WR 79.5%
A
AnjunโProven๐ฅ
Entry 95ยขยท478,804 shares
Invested
$453.0K
Win Rate
58.8%
Position P&L
+$14077
+$14077INV $453.0K ยท WR 58.8%
W
Warlike-Horn๐ฅ
Entry 88ยขยท390,344.8 shares
Invested
$341.8K
Win Rate
85.0%
Position P&L
+$38981
+$38981INV $341.8K ยท WR 85.0%
M
momom
Entry 87ยขยท216,373.6 shares
Invested
$188.8K
Win Rate
97.6%
Position P&L
+$22282
+$22282INV $188.8K ยท WR 97.6%
A
allenzzz
Entry 95ยขยท195,830 shares
Invested
$186.7K
Win Rate
82.1%
Position P&L
+$4295
+$4295INV $186.7K ยท WR 82.1%
T
Top1-J
Entry 96ยขยท94,348.5 shares
Invested
$90.6K
Win Rate
94.5%
Position P&L
+$1462
+$1462INV $90.6K ยท WR 94.5%
S
SILF
Entry 95ยขยท85,000 shares
Invested
$80.3K
Win Rate
70.7%
Position P&L
+$2587
+$2587INV $80.3K ยท WR 70.7%
S
Spanish-Priority
Entry 92ยขยท83,525.3 shares
Invested
$76.8K
Win Rate
88.4%
Position P&L
+$4724
+$4724INV $76.8K ยท WR 88.4%
F
freeman123
Entry 96ยขยท58,800.7 shares
Invested
$56.6K
Win Rate
80.9%
Position P&L
+$724
+$724INV $56.6K ยท WR 80.9%
S
someone2026
Entry 90ยขยท60,000 shares
Invested
$53.9K
Win Rate
82.4%
Position P&L
+$4582
+$4582INV $53.9K ยท WR 82.4%
Showing top 10 of 2,591
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