🐋OrcaLayer
Sign In
Geopolitics446 days left

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

View on Polymarket
YES Price
11¢
11% implied
NO Price
89¢
89% implied
Volume
$3.46M
9,307 trades
Smart Whales
251
of 1,981 traders · 10 on both sides

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

3 MARKETS · $47.84M MATCHED

Smart Money Consensus

91 YESvs170 NO
35%65%
65% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 4% YES by dollars · 42 YES vs 135 NO taking a side · 7 on both sides
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 76%
+7 new YES$76+6 new NO$240
1 smart whale3 smart whales
Both-sides exposure · invested basis · 36% of the money is not a bet
$211.4K of $590.5K is held equally on both sides by 7 wallets — not a bet on the outcome. $511 is hedged across different prices by 3 wallets. True directional: YES $15.0K·NO $363.6K
YES Team
Total Invested
$130.1K
Avg Win Rate
70.1%
Aggregate P&L
-$88.0K(-67.7%)
Whales
91
B
balthazar🥇both sides
Entry 50¢·183,000 shares·also $91.5K on NO
$-72285INV $91.5K · WR 72.2%
T
Threadbare-Signal🥈
Entry 17¢·54,280.5 shares
$-3672INV $9.4K · WR 60.2%
P
probability🥉both sides
Entry 50¢·15,000 shares·also $7.5K on NO
$-5925INV $7.5K · WR 59.8%
L
LieutenantMiloMinderbinderboth sides
Entry 50¢·8,000 shares·also $4.0K on NO
$-3160INV $4.0K · WR 70.0%
C
cryptocobieboth sides
Entry 50¢·4,050 shares·also $2.0K on NO
$-1600INV $2.0K · WR 72.2%
A
Ajjooli
Entry 12¢·15,469.4 shares
$-176INV $1.8K · WR 66.0%
G
Guadaibiao
Entry 16¢·5,840.9 shares
$-306INV $919 · WR 66.5%
A
Agyapro
Entry 12¢·7,372.8 shares
$-120INV $894 · WR 58.1%
C
Christian979both sides
Entry 50¢·1,110 shares·also $555 on NO
$-438INV $555 · WR 93.5%
G
goatboss
Entry 12¢·3,960 shares
$-49INV $465 · WR 60.9%
Showing top 10 of 91

Smart Whale Trades

Loading trades...

Price History (YES)

Loading chart...
Loaded in 757ms