Polymarket wallet 0x4e84…ef69

Wallet snapshot

Wallet 0x4e84…ef69 has made 79,969 trades on Polymarket across 584 markets, $1.1M in volume. Most of it is in geopolitics (56%) and politics (16%). On 412 resolved markets the win rate is 60%, lifetime P&L +$1,842. It holds 127 open positions right now; the largest is No on "Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?". Last trade: Oct 16, 2026.

Largest open positions

• Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?No · $647 · 69¢ → 90¢
• Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?No · $516 · 35¢ → 45¢
• Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by October 31, 2026?No · $463 · 63¢ → 99¢
• Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?No · $447 · 67¢ → 76¢
• Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?No · $426 · 92¢ → 94¢
• Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?No · $399 · 25¢ → 39¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?No · $379 · 65¢ → 79¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?Yes · $296 · 63¢ → 49¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?Yes · $268 · 46¢ → 31¢
• Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes · $241 · 71¢ → 71¢

Latest closed positions

• Will Russia target Kyiv on October 18, 2026?No · -$4 · Oct 17, 2026
• Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?No · -$13 · Oct 17, 2026
• Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?No · +$2 · Oct 16, 2026
• Iran leadership change by October 31?Yes · +$6 · Oct 16, 2026
• US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 21?No · -$8 · Oct 16, 2026
• Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Yes · -$6 · Oct 16, 2026
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?Yes · +$2 · Oct 15, 2026

Snapshot from OrcaLayer data, refreshed every 10 minutes.