Politics734 days left

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Trade on Polymarket

YES Price

17¢

17% implied

NO Price

83¢

83% implied

Volume

$18.28M

153,050 trades

Smart Whales

2824

of 23,483 traders · 388 on both sides

Presidential Election Winner 2028

63 MARKETS · $731.62M MATCHED

Smart Money

Abigail Spanberger

0¢+88¢$978.8K72/10

Abigail Spanberger+88¢0¢

0¢+91¢$952.3K73/7

Adam Schiff+91¢0¢

0¢+89¢$853.7K73/9

Alex Padilla+89¢0¢

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

13¢+35¢$14.28M684/737

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+35¢13¢

1¢+47¢$19.50M377/414

Andy Beshear+47¢1¢

0¢+90¢$590.9K76/8

Candace Owens+90¢0¢

Donald Trump Jr.

0¢+44¢$14.17M189/244

Donald Trump Jr.+44¢0¢

1¢+46¢$10.93M736/835

Donald Trump+46¢1¢

0¢+90¢$420.0K73/8

Doug Burgum+90¢0¢

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

1¢+42¢$8.56M383/517

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson+42¢1¢

0¢+89¢$898.6K71/9

Elissa Slotkin+89¢0¢

0¢+43¢$28.32M266/354

Elon Musk+43¢0¢

0¢+57¢$19.02M128/95

Eric Trump+57¢0¢

8¢+48¢$19.01M911/726

Gavin Newsom+48¢8¢

0¢+50¢$28.81M214/213

Glenn Youngkin+50¢0¢

0¢+46¢$35.47M219/256

Greg Abbott+46¢0¢

Gretchen Whitmer

0¢+47¢$15.79M190/216

Gretchen Whitmer+47¢0¢

Hakeem Jeffries

0¢+93¢$288.8K74/6

Hakeem Jeffries+93¢0¢

1¢+41¢$8.85M164/229

Ivanka Trump+41¢1¢

0¢+46¢$13.30M206/241

JB Pritzker+46¢0¢

17¢+33¢$18.28M1597/1570

JD Vance←+33¢17¢

$18.28M1597/1570

0¢+90¢$3.29M148/17

Jalen Brunson+90¢0¢

1¢+52¢$8.30M123/109

James Talarico+52¢1¢

0¢+49¢$11.15M150/156

Jamie Dimon+49¢0¢

John N. Kennedy

0¢+90¢$412.4K74/8

John N. Kennedy+90¢0¢

18¢+33¢$6.42M261/249

Jon Ossoff+33¢18¢

3¢+44¢$7.72M279/309

Josh Shapiro+44¢3¢

0¢+88¢$1.04M71/10

Josh Stein+88¢0¢

3¢+45¢$9.61M672/714

Kamala Harris+45¢3¢

0¢+34¢$40.42M283/561

Kim Kardashian+34¢0¢

0¢+34¢$55.18M307/605

LeBron James+34¢0¢

9¢+43¢$13.36M520/475

Marco Rubio+43¢9¢

1¢+77¢$1.02M86/24

Mark Kelly+77¢1¢

0¢+35¢$19.66M167/308

Michelle Obama+35¢0¢

0¢+92¢$396.2K76/7

Mike Johnson+92¢0¢

0¢+45¢$32.02M189/231

Nikki Haley+45¢0¢

0¢+87¢$927.8K92/14

Person AF+87¢0¢

0¢+89¢$687.3K88/11

Person AG+89¢0¢

0¢+99¢$427.3K96/1

Person AH+99¢0¢

0¢+100¢$097/0

Person AW+100¢0¢

0¢+100¢$097/0

Person AY+100¢0¢

0¢+100¢$097/0

Person BA+100¢0¢

0¢+100¢$097/0

Person BK+100¢0¢

0¢+100¢$097/0

Person CB+100¢0¢

0¢+100¢$097/0

Person CC+100¢0¢

0¢+100¢$097/0

Person CE+100¢0¢

0¢+100¢$097/0

Person CX+100¢0¢

2¢+44¢$8.67M290/339

Pete Buttigieg+44¢2¢

0¢+57¢$10.57M82/61

Pete Hegseth+57¢0¢

Raphael Warnock

2¢+77¢$1.42M85/23

Raphael Warnock+77¢2¢

0¢+91¢$519.7K72/7

Rick Scott+91¢0¢

1¢+44¢$11.01M90/110

Ro Khanna+44¢1¢

5¢+41¢$12.84M211/245

Ron DeSantis+41¢5¢

0¢+43¢$34.13M140/186

Stephen Smith+43¢0¢

1¢+48¢$8.68M107/112

Thomas Massie+48¢1¢

0¢+81¢$1.06M79/18

Tim Scott+81¢0¢

0¢+45¢$44.99M176/219

Tim Walz+45¢0¢

0¢+81¢$2.03M82/19

Tom Cotton+81¢0¢

1¢+45¢$14.52M205/237

Tucker Carlson+45¢1¢

0¢+43¢$35.62M125/167

Tulsi Gabbard+43¢0¢

Vivek Ramaswamy

0¢+44¢$38.17M227/289

Vivek Ramaswamy+44¢0¢

1¢+46¢$12.90M189/212

Wes Moore+46¢1¢

0¢+50¢$23.16M189/186

Zohran Mamdani+50¢0¢

Hover a row for the full Polymarket title

Smart Money Consensus

1616 YESvs1596 NO

50%50%

50% of smart money holding this market is on YESNet of both-sides wallets: 45% YES by dollars · 357 YES vs 263 NO taking a side · 377 on both sides

Last 24h FlowNO momentum 55%· net of hedges

+88 new YES$17.4K+69 new NO$20.4K

$6.8K of this was bought on both sides by the same 23 buyers — left out of momentum

11 smart whales11 smart whales

Both-sides exposure · invested basis · 99% of the money is not a bet

$11.99M of $12.17M is held equally on both sides by 376 wallets — not a bet on the outcome. $31.8K is hedged across different prices by 12 wallets. True directional: YES $62.6K·NO $77.1K

YES Team

Total Invested

$6.28M

Avg Win Rate

77.7%

Aggregate P&L

-$4.06M(-64.6%)

Whales

1,616

elmcap2🥇both sides

Entry 50¢·2,500,000 shares·also $1.25M on NO

$-831250INV $1.25M · WR 88.6%

S-Works🥈both sides

Entry 50¢·1,150,000 shares·also $575.0K on NO

$-382375INV $575.0K · WR 69.9%

thegreengem🥉both sides

Entry 50¢·1,141,172 shares·also $570.6K on NO

$-379440INV $570.6K · WR 87.2%

BrightStarsboth sides

Entry 50¢·697,451 shares·also $348.7K on NO

$-231902INV $348.7K · WR 66.6%

Upright-Snugboth sides

Entry 50¢·678,988.9 shares·also $339.5K on NO

$-225764INV $339.5K · WR 80.7%

debasedboth sides

Entry 50¢·440,000 shares·also $220.0K on NO

$-146300INV $220.0K · WR 65.6%

tudor123both sides

Entry 50¢·400,000 shares·also $200.0K on NO

$-133000INV $200.0K · WR 76.5%

Rock.Sanboth sides

Entry 50¢·400,000 shares·also $200.0K on NO

$-133000INV $200.0K · WR 91.8%

scoutboth sides

Entry 50¢·350,000 shares·also $175.0K on NO

$-116375INV $175.0K · WR 91.3%

ArmageddonRewardsBillyboth sides

Entry 50¢·300,000 shares·also $150.0K on NO

$-99750INV $150.0K · WR 57.4%

Showing top 10 of 1,616

NO Team

Total Invested

$6.74M

Avg Win Rate

77.6%

Aggregate P&L

+$4.59M(+68.2%)

Whales

1,596

elmcap2🥇both sides

Entry 50¢·2,500,000 shares·also $1.25M on YES

+$831250INV $1.25M · WR 88.6%

S-Works🥈both sides

Entry 50¢·1,150,008.5 shares·also $575.0K on YES

+$382378INV $575.0K · WR 69.9%

thegreengem🥉both sides

Entry 50¢·1,141,172 shares·also $570.6K on YES

+$379440INV $570.6K · WR 87.2%

BrightStarsboth sides

Entry 50¢·697,451 shares·also $348.7K on YES

+$231902INV $348.7K · WR 66.6%

Upright-Snugboth sides

Entry 50¢·678,988.9 shares·also $339.5K on YES

+$225764INV $339.5K · WR 80.7%

debasedboth sides

Entry 50¢·440,000 shares·also $220.0K on YES

+$146300INV $220.0K · WR 65.6%

tudor123both sides

Entry 50¢·400,000 shares·also $200.0K on YES

+$133000INV $200.0K · WR 76.5%

Rock.Sanboth sides

Entry 50¢·400,000 shares·also $200.0K on YES

+$133000INV $200.0K · WR 91.8%

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA

Entry 29¢·621,751.6 shares

+$337887INV $177.9K · WR 89.0%

scoutboth sides

Entry 50¢·350,000 shares·also $175.0K on YES

+$116375INV $175.0K · WR 91.3%

Showing top 10 of 1,596

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Smart money 50% YES: JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential…