Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in August 2026?
YES Price
20¢
20% implied
NO Price
80¢
80% implied
Volume
$307
111 trades
Smart Whales
19
of 43 traders
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
18 MARKETS · $71.8K MATCHEDSmart Money
by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in July 2026
0¢+10¢$5.4K2/19by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in July 2026+10¢0¢
$5.4K2/19
by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in July 2026
3¢+20¢$12.6K7/23by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in July 2026+20¢3¢
$12.6K7/23
by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in July 2026
95¢−69¢$13.6K9/25by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in July 2026−69¢95¢
$13.6K9/25
by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in July 2026
3¢+20¢$15.2K9/30by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in July 2026+20¢3¢
$15.2K9/30
by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in August 2026
4¢+51¢$52511/9by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in August 2026+51¢4¢
$52511/9
by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in August 2026
1¢+49¢$4389/9by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in August 2026+49¢1¢
$4389/9
by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in August 2026
9¢+9¢$2703/14by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in August 2026+9¢9¢
$2703/14
by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in August 2026←
20¢−15¢$3071/20by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in August 2026←−15¢20¢
$3071/20
by between 1.30ºC and 1.33ºC in August 2026
1¢+16¢$1.0K2/10by between 1.30ºC and 1.33ºC in August 2026+16¢1¢
$1.0K2/10
by between 1.34ºC and 1.37ºC in August 2026
5¢+9¢$1.9K2/12by between 1.34ºC and 1.37ºC in August 2026+9¢5¢
$1.9K2/12
by between 1.38ºC and 1.41ºC in August 2026
69¢−33¢$1.2K4/7by between 1.38ºC and 1.41ºC in August 2026−33¢69¢
$1.2K4/7
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
0 YESvs19 NO
100%
100% of smart money is betting NO on this market
Quiet 24h — no new smart whale entries
YES Team40 traders
Total Invested
$0
Avg Win Rate
0.0%
Aggregate P&L
—
Whales
0
No smart whales on YES
NO Team40 traders
Total Invested
$1.4K
Avg Win Rate
82.3%
Aggregate P&L
+$479(+34.1%)
Whales
19
M
Mysaria🥇
Entry 93¢·238.2 shares
Invested
$221
Win Rate
89.3%
Position P&L
$-30
$-30INV $221 · WR 89.3%
P
plainfolder🥈
Entry 86¢·232 shares
Invested
$199
Win Rate
85.3%
Position P&L
$-14
$-14INV $199 · WR 85.3%
B
balthazar🥉
Entry 84¢·200 shares
Invested
$168
Win Rate
71.6%
Position P&L
$-8
$-8INV $168 · WR 71.6%
G
godblessme2026
Entry 94¢·130 shares
Invested
$122
Win Rate
88.2%
Position P&L
$-18
$-18INV $122 · WR 88.2%
C
Corny-Hyphenation
Entry 96¢·105.5 shares
Invested
$101
Win Rate
62.7%
Position P&L
+$4
+$4INV $101 · WR 62.7%
K
korda77
Entry 83¢·118 shares
Invested
$98
Win Rate
85.1%
Position P&L
$-4
$-4INV $98 · WR 85.1%
M
Maximus374
Entry 71¢·100 shares
Invested
$71
Win Rate
72.1%
Position P&L
+$9
+$9INV $71 · WR 72.1%
S
smallreceipt
Entry 83¢·85 shares
Invested
$70
Win Rate
89.4%
Position P&L
$-2
$-2INV $70 · WR 89.4%
V
vitalik-buttrig
Entry 90¢·72.2 shares
Invested
$65
Win Rate
85.7%
Position P&L
$-7
$-7INV $65 · WR 85.7%
D
donthackme
Entry 85¢·54.4 shares
Invested
$46
Win Rate
87.9%
Position P&L
$-3
$-3INV $46 · WR 87.9%
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