Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in July 2026?
YES Price
3¢
3% implied
NO Price
97¢
97% implied
Volume
$12.6K
321 trades
Smart Whales
24
of 91 traders
July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
18 MARKETS · $71.8K MATCHEDSmart Money
by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in July 2026
0¢+10¢$5.4K2/19by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in July 2026+10¢0¢
$5.4K2/19
by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in July 2026←
3¢+20¢$12.6K7/23by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in July 2026←+20¢3¢
$12.6K7/23
by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in July 2026
95¢−69¢$13.6K9/25by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in July 2026−69¢95¢
$13.6K9/25
by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in July 2026
3¢+20¢$15.2K9/30by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in July 2026+20¢3¢
$15.2K9/30
by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in August 2026
4¢+51¢$52511/9by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in August 2026+51¢4¢
$52511/9
by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in August 2026
1¢+49¢$4389/9by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in August 2026+49¢1¢
$4389/9
by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in August 2026
9¢+9¢$2703/14by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in August 2026+9¢9¢
$2703/14
by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in August 2026
20¢−15¢$3071/20by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in August 2026−15¢20¢
$3071/20
by between 1.30ºC and 1.33ºC in August 2026
1¢+16¢$1.0K2/10by between 1.30ºC and 1.33ºC in August 2026+16¢1¢
$1.0K2/10
by between 1.34ºC and 1.37ºC in August 2026
5¢+9¢$1.9K2/12by between 1.34ºC and 1.37ºC in August 2026+9¢5¢
$1.9K2/12
by between 1.38ºC and 1.41ºC in August 2026
69¢−33¢$1.2K4/7by between 1.38ºC and 1.41ºC in August 2026−33¢69¢
$1.2K4/7
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
6 YESvs18 NO
25%75%
75% of smart money is betting NO on this market
Quiet 24h — no new smart whale entries
YES Team72 traders
Total Invested
$741
Avg Win Rate
63.2%
Aggregate P&L
-$578(-78.0%)
Whales
6
C
Corny-Hyphenation🥇
Entry 16¢·4,248.5 shares
Invested
$661
Win Rate
62.7%
Position P&L
$-517
$-517INV $661 · WR 62.7%
C
Corny-Hyphenation🥈
Entry 82¢·41 shares
Invested
$34
Win Rate
62.7%
Position P&L
$-32
$-32INV $34 · WR 62.7%
R
Rr55🥉
Entry 5¢·500 shares
Invested
$27
Win Rate
74.1%
Position P&L
$-10
$-10INV $27 · WR 74.1%
R
russell110320
Entry 5¢·251.3 shares
Invested
$13
Win Rate
66.5%
Position P&L
$-13
$-13INV $13 · WR 66.5%
M
MKB
Entry 4¢·100 shares
Invested
$4
Win Rate
68.9%
Position P&L
$-4
$-4INV $4 · WR 68.9%
E
Elias.Thornwell
Entry 13¢·11 shares
Invested
$1
Win Rate
69.5%
Position P&L
$-1
$-1INV $1 · WR 69.5%
Q
quietparcel
Entry 50¢·0.9 shares
Invested
$0
Win Rate
88.9%
Position P&L
$-0
$-0INV $0 · WR 88.9%
NO Team72 traders
Total Invested
$1.5K
Avg Win Rate
84.2%
Aggregate P&L
+$1.1K(+74.5%)
Whales
18
D
donthackme🥇
Entry 94¢·438.3 shares
Invested
$411
Win Rate
87.9%
Position P&L
+$12
+$12INV $411 · WR 87.9%
P
plainfolder🥈
Entry 92¢·175 shares
Invested
$161
Win Rate
85.3%
Position P&L
+$8
+$8INV $161 · WR 85.3%
E
e46m3🥉
Entry 89¢·172 shares
Invested
$152
Win Rate
79.2%
Position P&L
+$14
+$14INV $152 · WR 79.2%
V
vitalik-buttrig
Entry 92¢·164.6 shares
Invested
$152
Win Rate
85.7%
Position P&L
+$7
+$7INV $152 · WR 85.7%
A
Anon321321
Entry 90¢·141.6 shares
Invested
$127
Win Rate
86.3%
Position P&L
+$9
+$9INV $127 · WR 86.3%
B
balthazar
Entry 84¢·140 shares
Invested
$118
Win Rate
71.6%
Position P&L
+$17
+$17INV $118 · WR 71.6%
G
graynotebook19
Entry 92¢·88 shares
Invested
$81
Win Rate
89.6%
Position P&L
+$4
+$4INV $81 · WR 89.6%
N
northdrawer
Entry 88¢·60 shares
Invested
$53
Win Rate
87.3%
Position P&L
+$5
+$5INV $53 · WR 87.3%
K
korda77
Entry 89¢·59 shares
Invested
$53
Win Rate
85.1%
Position P&L
+$4
+$4INV $53 · WR 85.1%
M
mustbethewater
Entry 93¢·55.4 shares
Invested
$52
Win Rate
79.5%
Position P&L
+$2
+$2INV $52 · WR 79.5%
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