Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in August 2026?
YES Price
76¢
76% implied
NO Price
24¢
24% implied
Volume
$673
156 trades
Smart Whales
22
of 59 traders
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
18 MARKETS · $71.8K MATCHEDSmart Money
by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in July 2026
0¢+10¢$5.4K2/19by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in July 2026+10¢0¢
$5.4K2/19
by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in July 2026
3¢+20¢$12.6K7/23by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in July 2026+20¢3¢
$12.6K7/23
by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in July 2026
95¢−69¢$13.6K9/25by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in July 2026−69¢95¢
$13.6K9/25
by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in July 2026
3¢+20¢$15.2K9/30by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in July 2026+20¢3¢
$15.2K9/30
by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in August 2026
4¢+51¢$52511/9by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in August 2026+51¢4¢
$52511/9
by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in August 2026
1¢+49¢$4389/9by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in August 2026+49¢1¢
$4389/9
by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in August 2026
9¢+9¢$2703/14by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in August 2026+9¢9¢
$2703/14
by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in August 2026
20¢−15¢$3071/20by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in August 2026−15¢20¢
$3071/20
by more than 1.29ºC in August 2026←
76¢−60¢$6734/21by more than 1.29ºC in August 2026←−60¢76¢
$6734/21
by between 1.30ºC and 1.33ºC in August 2026
1¢+16¢$1.0K2/10by between 1.30ºC and 1.33ºC in August 2026+16¢1¢
$1.0K2/10
by between 1.34ºC and 1.37ºC in August 2026
5¢+9¢$1.9K2/12by between 1.34ºC and 1.37ºC in August 2026+9¢5¢
$1.9K2/12
by between 1.38ºC and 1.41ºC in August 2026
69¢−33¢$1.2K4/7by between 1.38ºC and 1.41ºC in August 2026−33¢69¢
$1.2K4/7
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Smart Money Consensus
4 YESvs18 NO
18%82%
82% of smart money is betting NO on this market
Quiet 24h — no new smart whale entries
YES Team52 traders
Total Invested
$1.9K
Avg Win Rate
65.2%
Aggregate P&L
+$445(+23.1%)
Whales
4
R
russell110320🥇
Entry 84¢·1,451.8 shares
Invested
$1.2K
Win Rate
66.5%
Position P&L
+$225
+$225INV $1.2K · WR 66.5%
C
Corny-Hyphenation🥈
Entry 75¢·910.6 shares
Invested
$687
Win Rate
62.7%
Position P&L
+$218
+$218INV $687 · WR 62.7%
E
Elias.Thornwell🥉
Entry 94¢·16.2 shares
Invested
$15
Win Rate
69.5%
Position P&L
+$1
+$1INV $15 · WR 69.5%
B
big-bird1
Entry 86¢·4.8 shares
Invested
$4
Win Rate
71.4%
Position P&L
+$1
+$1INV $4 · WR 71.4%
NO Team52 traders
Total Invested
$383
Avg Win Rate
81.4%
Aggregate P&L
+$12(+3.1%)
Whales
18
K
korda77🥇
Entry 83¢·118 shares
Invested
$98
Win Rate
85.1%
Position P&L
$-70
$-70INV $98 · WR 85.1%
M
Maximus374🥈
Entry 78¢·100 shares
Invested
$78
Win Rate
72.1%
Position P&L
$-54
$-54INV $78 · WR 72.1%
M
Mysaria🥉
Entry 10¢·392.5 shares
Invested
$38
Win Rate
89.3%
Position P&L
+$56
+$56INV $38 · WR 89.3%
Q
quietparcel
Entry 17¢·170 shares
Invested
$29
Win Rate
88.9%
Position P&L
+$12
+$12INV $29 · WR 88.9%
A
Anon321321
Entry 15¢·160 shares
Invested
$24
Win Rate
86.3%
Position P&L
+$14
+$14INV $24 · WR 86.3%
J
JustMan900
Entry 30¢·66.9 shares
Invested
$20
Win Rate
64.9%
Position P&L
$-20
$-20INV $20 · WR 64.9%
M
mustbethewater
Entry 17¢·104.4 shares
Invested
$18
Win Rate
79.5%
Position P&L
+$7
+$7INV $18 · WR 79.5%
P
plainfolder
Entry 7¢·227.4 shares
Invested
$17
Win Rate
85.3%
Position P&L
+$38
+$38INV $17 · WR 85.3%
B
balthazar
Entry 15¢·100 shares
Invested
$15
Win Rate
71.6%
Position P&L
+$9
+$9INV $15 · WR 71.6%
N
northdrawer
Entry 16¢·60 shares
Invested
$9
Win Rate
87.3%
Position P&L
+$5
+$5INV $9 · WR 87.3%
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