Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in July 2026?
YES Price
1¢
1% implied
NO Price
99¢
99% implied
Volume
$4.7K
173 trades
Smart Whales
17
of 71 traders
July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
18 MARKETS · $71.8K MATCHEDSmart Money
by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in July 2026
0¢+10¢$5.4K2/19by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in July 2026+10¢0¢
$5.4K2/19
by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in July 2026
3¢+20¢$12.6K7/23by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in July 2026+20¢3¢
$12.6K7/23
by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in July 2026
95¢−69¢$13.6K9/25by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in July 2026−69¢95¢
$13.6K9/25
by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in July 2026
3¢+20¢$15.2K9/30by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in July 2026+20¢3¢
$15.2K9/30
by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in August 2026
4¢+51¢$52511/9by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in August 2026+51¢4¢
$52511/9
by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in August 2026
1¢+49¢$4389/9by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in August 2026+49¢1¢
$4389/9
by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in August 2026
9¢+9¢$2703/14by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in August 2026+9¢9¢
$2703/14
by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in August 2026
20¢−15¢$3071/20by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in August 2026−15¢20¢
$3071/20
by between 1.30ºC and 1.33ºC in August 2026
1¢+16¢$1.0K2/10by between 1.30ºC and 1.33ºC in August 2026+16¢1¢
$1.0K2/10
by between 1.34ºC and 1.37ºC in August 2026
5¢+9¢$1.9K2/12by between 1.34ºC and 1.37ºC in August 2026+9¢5¢
$1.9K2/12
by between 1.38ºC and 1.41ºC in August 2026
69¢−33¢$1.2K4/7by between 1.38ºC and 1.41ºC in August 2026−33¢69¢
$1.2K4/7
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
3 YESvs14 NO
18%82%
82% of smart money is betting NO on this market
Quiet 24h — no new smart whale entries
YES Team58 traders
Total Invested
$5
Avg Win Rate
73.1%
Aggregate P&L
-$5(-99.0%)
Whales
3
NO Team58 traders
Total Invested
$1.3K
Avg Win Rate
85.5%
Aggregate P&L
+$1.5K(+118.1%)
Whales
14
P
plainfolder🥇
Entry 99¢·240 shares
Invested
$239
Win Rate
85.3%
Position P&L
$-1
$-1INV $239 · WR 85.3%
G
graynotebook19🥈
Entry 100¢·212 shares
Invested
$211
Win Rate
89.6%
Position P&L
$-2
$-2INV $211 · WR 89.6%
N
northdrawer🥉
Entry 100¢·187.4 shares
Invested
$187
Win Rate
87.3%
Position P&L
$-2
$-2INV $187 · WR 87.3%
V
vitalik-buttrig
Entry 99¢·164.6 shares
Invested
$163
Win Rate
85.7%
Position P&L
$-1
$-1INV $163 · WR 85.7%
E
e46m3
Entry 100¢·148.8 shares
Invested
$148
Win Rate
79.2%
Position P&L
$-1
$-1INV $148 · WR 79.2%
A
Anon321321
Entry 100¢·141.6 shares
Invested
$141
Win Rate
86.3%
Position P&L
$-1
$-1INV $141 · WR 86.3%
K
korda77
Entry 100¢·59 shares
Invested
$59
Win Rate
85.1%
Position P&L
$-1
$-1INV $59 · WR 85.1%
D
donthackme
Entry 100¢·31.5 shares
Invested
$31
Win Rate
87.9%
Position P&L
$-0
$-0INV $31 · WR 87.9%
G
godblessme2026
Entry 100¢·30 shares
Invested
$30
Win Rate
88.2%
Position P&L
$-0
$-0INV $30 · WR 88.2%
J
James-Claude
Entry 70¢·40 shares
Invested
$28
Win Rate
75.4%
Position P&L
+$12
+$12INV $28 · WR 75.4%
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