Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in July 2026?
YES Price
3¢
3% implied
NO Price
97¢
97% implied
Volume
$15.2K
324 trades
Smart Whales
39
of 101 traders
July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
18 MARKETS · $71.8K MATCHEDSmart Money
by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in July 2026
0¢+10¢$5.4K2/19by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in July 2026+10¢0¢
$5.4K2/19
by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in July 2026
3¢+20¢$12.6K7/23by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in July 2026+20¢3¢
$12.6K7/23
by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in July 2026
95¢−69¢$13.6K9/25by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in July 2026−69¢95¢
$13.6K9/25
by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in July 2026←
3¢+20¢$15.2K9/30by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in July 2026←+20¢3¢
$15.2K9/30
by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in August 2026
4¢+51¢$52511/9by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in August 2026+51¢4¢
$52511/9
by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in August 2026
1¢+49¢$4389/9by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in August 2026+49¢1¢
$4389/9
by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in August 2026
9¢+9¢$2703/14by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in August 2026+9¢9¢
$2703/14
by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in August 2026
20¢−15¢$3071/20by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in August 2026−15¢20¢
$3071/20
by between 1.30ºC and 1.33ºC in August 2026
1¢+16¢$1.0K2/10by between 1.30ºC and 1.33ºC in August 2026+16¢1¢
$1.0K2/10
by between 1.34ºC and 1.37ºC in August 2026
5¢+9¢$1.9K2/12by between 1.34ºC and 1.37ºC in August 2026+9¢5¢
$1.9K2/12
by between 1.38ºC and 1.41ºC in August 2026
68¢−32¢$1.2K4/7by between 1.38ºC and 1.41ºC in August 2026−32¢68¢
$1.2K4/7
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
9 YESvs30 NO
23%77%
77% of smart money is betting NO on this market
Quiet 24h — no new smart whale entries
YES Team73 traders
Total Invested
$526
Avg Win Rate
58.9%
Aggregate P&L
-$502(-96.0%)
Whales
9
F
flawfence🥇
Entry 8¢·4,244.1 shares
Invested
$359
Win Rate
55.7%
Position P&L
$-359
$-359INV $359 · WR 55.7%
C
Corny-Hyphenation🥈
Entry 51¢·181.4 shares
Invested
$93
Win Rate
62.7%
Position P&L
$-88
$-88INV $93 · WR 62.7%
R
Rr55🥉
Entry 8¢·617.8 shares
Invested
$47
Win Rate
74.1%
Position P&L
$-30
$-30INV $47 · WR 74.1%
M
Miojinho
Entry 3¢·620 shares
Invested
$19
Win Rate
62.1%
Position P&L
$-19
$-19INV $19 · WR 62.1%
P
PPMT
Entry 14¢·30 shares
Invested
$4
Win Rate
55.9%
Position P&L
$-4
$-4INV $4 · WR 55.9%
B
balthazar
Entry 17¢·6.4 shares
Invested
$1
Win Rate
71.6%
Position P&L
$-1
$-1INV $1 · WR 71.6%
Q
quietparcel
Entry 17¢·0.5 shares
Invested
$0
Win Rate
88.9%
Position P&L
$-0
$-0INV $0 · WR 88.9%
Showing top 7 of 9
NO Team73 traders
Total Invested
$3.5K
Avg Win Rate
76.6%
Aggregate P&L
+$1.4K(+39.9%)
Whales
30
C
Corny-Hyphenation🥇
Entry 89¢·910.6 shares
Invested
$814
Win Rate
62.7%
Position P&L
+$72
+$72INV $814 · WR 62.7%
R
russell110320🥈
Entry 92¢·770 shares
Invested
$708
Win Rate
66.5%
Position P&L
+$41
+$41INV $708 · WR 66.5%
D
donthackme🥉
Entry 80¢·742.8 shares
Invested
$596
Win Rate
87.9%
Position P&L
+$126
+$126INV $596 · WR 87.9%
N
northdrawer
Entry 82¢·245 shares
Invested
$202
Win Rate
87.3%
Position P&L
+$36
+$36INV $202 · WR 87.3%
M
mildwindow27
Entry 90¢·173 shares
Invested
$155
Win Rate
87.9%
Position P&L
+$13
+$13INV $155 · WR 87.9%
V
vitalik-buttrig
Entry 80¢·164.6 shares
Invested
$131
Win Rate
85.7%
Position P&L
+$29
+$29INV $131 · WR 85.7%
E
e46m3
Entry 77¢·164 shares
Invested
$126
Win Rate
79.2%
Position P&L
+$33
+$33INV $126 · WR 79.2%
S
smallreceipt
Entry 79¢·142 shares
Invested
$112
Win Rate
89.4%
Position P&L
+$26
+$26INV $112 · WR 89.4%
A
Anon321321
Entry 78¢·140 shares
Invested
$109
Win Rate
86.3%
Position P&L
+$27
+$27INV $109 · WR 86.3%
P
plainfolder
Entry 83¢·78 shares
Invested
$65
Win Rate
85.3%
Position P&L
+$11
+$11INV $65 · WR 85.3%
Showing top 10 of 30
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