Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in July 2026?
YES Price
95¢
95% implied
NO Price
5¢
5% implied
Volume
$13.6K
281 trades
Smart Whales
28
of 101 traders
July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
18 MARKETS · $71.8K MATCHEDSmart Money
by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in July 2026
0¢+10¢$5.4K2/19by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in July 2026+10¢0¢
$5.4K2/19
by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in July 2026
3¢+20¢$12.6K7/23by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in July 2026+20¢3¢
$12.6K7/23
by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in July 2026←
95¢−69¢$13.6K9/25by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in July 2026←−69¢95¢
$13.6K9/25
by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in July 2026
3¢+20¢$15.2K9/30by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in July 2026+20¢3¢
$15.2K9/30
by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in August 2026
4¢+51¢$52511/9by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in August 2026+51¢4¢
$52511/9
by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in August 2026
1¢+49¢$4389/9by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in August 2026+49¢1¢
$4389/9
by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in August 2026
9¢+9¢$2703/14by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in August 2026+9¢9¢
$2703/14
by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in August 2026
20¢−15¢$3071/20by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in August 2026−15¢20¢
$3071/20
by between 1.30ºC and 1.33ºC in August 2026
1¢+16¢$1.0K2/10by between 1.30ºC and 1.33ºC in August 2026+16¢1¢
$1.0K2/10
by between 1.34ºC and 1.37ºC in August 2026
5¢+9¢$1.9K2/12by between 1.34ºC and 1.37ºC in August 2026+9¢5¢
$1.9K2/12
by between 1.38ºC and 1.41ºC in August 2026
69¢−33¢$1.2K4/7by between 1.38ºC and 1.41ºC in August 2026−33¢69¢
$1.2K4/7
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
9 YESvs19 NO
32%68%
68% of smart money is betting NO on this market
Quiet 24h — no new smart whale entries
YES Team83 traders
Total Invested
$4.1K
Avg Win Rate
66.6%
Aggregate P&L
+$1.9K(+45.0%)
Whales
9
R
russell110320🥇
Entry 71¢·5,212.7 shares
Invested
$3.7K
Win Rate
66.5%
Position P&L
+$1254
+$1254INV $3.7K · WR 66.5%
R
Rr55🥈
Entry 54¢·208.1 shares
Invested
$113
Win Rate
74.1%
Position P&L
+$84
+$84INV $113 · WR 74.1%
C
Corny-Hyphenation🥉
Entry 50¢·219.8 shares
Invested
$111
Win Rate
62.7%
Position P&L
+$98
+$98INV $111 · WR 62.7%
C
Corny-Hyphenation
Entry 23¢·436.6 shares
Invested
$100
Win Rate
62.7%
Position P&L
+$314
+$314INV $100 · WR 62.7%
E
Elias.Thornwell
Entry 88¢·85.7 shares
Invested
$75
Win Rate
69.5%
Position P&L
+$6
+$6INV $75 · WR 69.5%
M
m3t3
Entry 86¢·15 shares
Invested
$13
Win Rate
72.2%
Position P&L
+$1
+$1INV $13 · WR 72.2%
N
new-account-test222
Entry 90¢·10 shares
Invested
$9
Win Rate
59.2%
Position P&L
+$1
+$1INV $9 · WR 59.2%
7
0x774911a3...
Entry 73¢·6.8 shares
Invested
$5
Win Rate
70.8%
Position P&L
+$2
+$2INV $5 · WR 70.8%
V
Varyag
Entry 0¢·100 shares
Invested
$0
Win Rate
69.0%
Position P&L
+$95
+$95INV $0 · WR 69.0%
Q
quietparcel
Entry 50¢·0.5 shares
Invested
$0
Win Rate
88.9%
Position P&L
+$0
+$0INV $0 · WR 88.9%
NO Team83 traders
Total Invested
$909
Avg Win Rate
84.8%
Aggregate P&L
-$748(-82.3%)
Whales
19
D
donthackme🥇
Entry 23¢·957.4 shares
Invested
$223
Win Rate
87.9%
Position P&L
$-175
$-175INV $223 · WR 87.9%
B
Bigggggggg🥈
Entry 23¢·623 shares
Invested
$141
Win Rate
85.7%
Position P&L
$-110
$-110INV $141 · WR 85.7%
A
Anon321321🥉
Entry 35¢·380.6 shares
Invested
$133
Win Rate
86.3%
Position P&L
$-114
$-114INV $133 · WR 86.3%
S
smallreceipt
Entry 38¢·165 shares
Invested
$63
Win Rate
89.4%
Position P&L
$-54
$-54INV $63 · WR 89.4%
B
balthazar
Entry 42¢·140 shares
Invested
$59
Win Rate
71.6%
Position P&L
$-52
$-52INV $59 · WR 71.6%
V
vitalik-buttrig
Entry 28¢·164.6 shares
Invested
$46
Win Rate
85.7%
Position P&L
$-38
$-38INV $46 · WR 85.7%
P
plainfolder
Entry 22¢·206.3 shares
Invested
$46
Win Rate
85.3%
Position P&L
$-36
$-36INV $46 · WR 85.3%
K
korda77
Entry 78¢·59 shares
Invested
$46
Win Rate
85.1%
Position P&L
$-43
$-43INV $46 · WR 85.1%
G
godblessme2026
Entry 16¢·168.1 shares
Invested
$26
Win Rate
88.2%
Position P&L
$-18
$-18INV $26 · WR 88.2%
J
James-Claude
Entry 67¢·35 shares
Invested
$23
Win Rate
75.4%
Position P&L
$-23
$-23INV $23 · WR 75.4%
Showing top 10 of 19
Smart Whale Trades
Loading trades...
Price History (YES)
Loading chart...
Loaded in 338ms