Resolved
Will global temperature increase by between 1.38ºC and 1.41ºC in August 2026?
YES Price
100¢
100% implied
NO Price
0¢
0% implied
Volume
$4.8K
282 trades
Smart Whales
22
of 86 traders
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
7 MARKETS · $6.3K MATCHEDSmart Money
by between 1.38ºC and 1.41ºC in August 2026←
100¢−64¢$4.8K8/14by between 1.38ºC and 1.41ºC in August 2026←−64¢100¢
$4.8K8/14
by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in October 2026
25¢−25¢$1640/1by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in October 2026−25¢25¢
$1640/1
by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in October 2026
33¢—$50/0by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in October 2026—33¢
$50/0
by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in October 2026
44¢—$950/0by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in October 2026—44¢
$950/0
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
8 YESvs14 NO
36%64%
64% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 0% YES by dollars · 0 YES vs 1 NO taking a side
Quiet 24h — no new smart whale entries
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $68 is directional: YES $0·NO $68YES Team
Total Invested
$2.1K
Avg Win Rate
67.9%
Aggregate P&L
+$1.7K(+78.7%)
Whales
8
R
russell110320🥇
Entry 54¢·3,226 shares
Invested
$1.7K
Win Rate
67.5%
Position P&L
+$1480
+$1480INV $1.7K · WR 67.5%
W
Wellv🥈
Entry 62¢·276.8 shares
Invested
$172
Win Rate
73.1%
Position P&L
+$105
+$105INV $172 · WR 73.1%
F
Famous-Moody🥉
Entry 74¢·205 shares
Invested
$153
Win Rate
66.5%
Position P&L
+$53
+$53INV $153 · WR 66.5%
B
big-bird1
Entry 50¢·44.3 shares
Invested
$22
Win Rate
68.4%
Position P&L
+$22
+$22INV $22 · WR 68.4%
E
Elias.Thornwell
Entry 99¢·10 shares
Invested
$10
Win Rate
68.2%
Position P&L
+$0
+$0INV $10 · WR 68.2%
W
wert4
Entry 61¢·12.4 shares
Invested
$8
Win Rate
65.1%
Position P&L
+$5
+$5INV $8 · WR 65.1%
Showing top 6 of 8
NO Team
Total Invested
$718
Avg Win Rate
82.1%
Aggregate P&L
-$709(-98.8%)
Whales
14
E
e46m3🥇
Entry 48¢·383.5 shares
Invested
$183
Win Rate
79.6%
Position P&L
$-183
$-183INV $183 · WR 79.6%
Q
quietparcel🥈
Entry 32¢·256.4 shares
Invested
$83
Win Rate
88.7%
Position P&L
$-83
$-83INV $83 · WR 88.7%
M
mustbethewater🥉
Entry 40¢·203.7 shares
Invested
$82
Win Rate
79.6%
Position P&L
$-82
$-82INV $82 · WR 79.6%
Q
qwen4.1.fund
Entry 39¢·186.9 shares
Invested
$73
Win Rate
85.9%
Position P&L
$-73
$-73INV $73 · WR 85.9%
C
Corny-Hyphenation
Entry 24¢·279.7 shares
Invested
$68
Win Rate
67.4%
Position P&L
$-68
$-68INV $68 · WR 67.4%
D
donthackme
Entry 30¢·215.2 shares
Invested
$65
Win Rate
87.7%
Position P&L
$-65
$-65INV $65 · WR 87.7%
P
plainfolder
Entry 48¢·96.3 shares
Invested
$46
Win Rate
86.0%
Position P&L
$-46
$-46INV $46 · WR 86.0%
G
graynotebook19
Entry 44¢·80 shares
Invested
$35
Win Rate
89.3%
Position P&L
$-35
$-35INV $35 · WR 89.3%
G
gmgmgmgmg
Entry 32¢·111.3 shares
Invested
$35
Win Rate
79.2%
Position P&L
$-35
$-35INV $35 · WR 79.2%
K
korda77
Entry 48¢·59 shares
Invested
$28
Win Rate
85.2%
Position P&L
$-28
$-28INV $28 · WR 85.2%
Showing top 10 of 14
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