6 days left
Will global temperature increase by between 1.38ºC and 1.41ºC in August 2026?
YES Price
68¢
68% implied
NO Price
32¢
32% implied
Volume
$1.2K
73 trades
Smart Whales
11
of 34 traders
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
18 MARKETS · $71.8K MATCHEDSmart Money
by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in July 2026
0¢+10¢$5.4K2/19by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in July 2026+10¢0¢
$5.4K2/19
by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in July 2026
3¢+20¢$12.6K7/23by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in July 2026+20¢3¢
$12.6K7/23
by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in July 2026
95¢−69¢$13.6K9/25by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in July 2026−69¢95¢
$13.6K9/25
by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in July 2026
3¢+20¢$15.2K9/30by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in July 2026+20¢3¢
$15.2K9/30
by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in August 2026
4¢+51¢$52511/9by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in August 2026+51¢4¢
$52511/9
by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in August 2026
1¢+49¢$4389/9by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in August 2026+49¢1¢
$4389/9
by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in August 2026
9¢+9¢$2703/14by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in August 2026+9¢9¢
$2703/14
by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in August 2026
20¢−15¢$3071/20by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in August 2026−15¢20¢
$3071/20
by between 1.30ºC and 1.33ºC in August 2026
1¢+16¢$1.0K2/10by between 1.30ºC and 1.33ºC in August 2026+16¢1¢
$1.0K2/10
by between 1.34ºC and 1.37ºC in August 2026
5¢+9¢$1.9K2/12by between 1.34ºC and 1.37ºC in August 2026+9¢5¢
$1.9K2/12
by between 1.38ºC and 1.41ºC in August 2026←
68¢−32¢$1.2K4/7by between 1.38ºC and 1.41ºC in August 2026←−32¢68¢
$1.2K4/7
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
4 YESvs7 NO
36%64%
64% of smart money is betting NO on this market
Last 24h FlowYES momentum 71%
+5 new YES$59+4 new NO$24
2 smart whales1 smart whale
YES Team33 traders
Total Invested
$395
Avg Win Rate
65.7%
Aggregate P&L
+$151(+38.3%)
Whales
4
R
russell110320🥇
Entry 46¢·676.7 shares
Invested
$310
Win Rate
66.5%
Position P&L
+$137
+$137INV $310 · WR 66.5%
C
Corny-Hyphenation🥈
Entry 56¢·140.7 shares
Invested
$79
Win Rate
62.7%
Position P&L
+$14
+$14INV $79 · WR 62.7%
N
new-account-test222🥉
Entry 69¢·5 shares
Invested
$3
Win Rate
59.2%
Position P&L
$-0
$-0INV $3 · WR 59.2%
B
big-bird1
Entry 53¢·4.4 shares
Invested
$2
Win Rate
71.4%
Position P&L
+$1
+$1INV $2 · WR 71.4%
NO Team33 traders
Total Invested
$195
Avg Win Rate
86.1%
Aggregate P&L
-$65(-33.3%)
Whales
7
P
plainfolder🥇
Entry 52¢·76.3 shares
Invested
$39
Win Rate
85.3%
Position P&L
$-15
$-15INV $39 · WR 85.3%
K
korda77🥈
Entry 48¢·59 shares
Invested
$28
Win Rate
85.1%
Position P&L
$-9
$-9INV $28 · WR 85.1%
M
Mysaria🥉
Entry 46¢·58.2 shares
Invested
$27
Win Rate
89.3%
Position P&L
$-8
$-8INV $27 · WR 89.3%
G
graynotebook19
Entry 68¢·26.4 shares
Invested
$18
Win Rate
89.6%
Position P&L
$-10
$-10INV $18 · WR 89.6%
E
e46m3
Entry 49¢·35.2 shares
Invested
$17
Win Rate
79.2%
Position P&L
$-6
$-6INV $17 · WR 79.2%
G
graynotebook19
Entry 32¢·53.6 shares
Invested
$17
Win Rate
89.6%
Position P&L
—
—INV $17 · WR 89.6%
E
e46m3
Entry 51¢·30.4 shares
Invested
$16
Win Rate
79.2%
Position P&L
$-6
$-6INV $16 · WR 79.2%
A
Admirable-Trust
Entry 52¢·20 shares
Invested
$10
Win Rate
88.6%
Position P&L
$-4
$-4INV $10 · WR 88.6%
M
Mysaria
Entry 63¢·16.6 shares
Invested
$10
Win Rate
89.3%
Position P&L
$-5
$-5INV $10 · WR 89.3%
A
Admirable-Trust
Entry 48¢·20 shares
Invested
$10
Win Rate
88.6%
Position P&L
$-3
$-3INV $10 · WR 88.6%
Smart Whale Trades
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