Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in July 2026?
YES Price
1¢
1% implied
NO Price
99¢
99% implied
Volume
$8.5K
171 trades
Smart Whales
17
of 69 traders
July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
18 MARKETS · $71.8K MATCHEDSmart Money
by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in July 2026
0¢+10¢$5.4K2/19by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in July 2026+10¢0¢
$5.4K2/19
by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in July 2026
3¢+20¢$12.6K7/23by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in July 2026+20¢3¢
$12.6K7/23
by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in July 2026
95¢−69¢$13.6K9/25by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in July 2026−69¢95¢
$13.6K9/25
by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in July 2026
3¢+20¢$15.2K9/30by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in July 2026+20¢3¢
$15.2K9/30
by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in August 2026
4¢+51¢$52511/9by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in August 2026+51¢4¢
$52511/9
by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in August 2026
1¢+49¢$4389/9by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in August 2026+49¢1¢
$4389/9
by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in August 2026
9¢+9¢$2703/14by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in August 2026+9¢9¢
$2703/14
by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in August 2026
20¢−15¢$3071/20by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in August 2026−15¢20¢
$3071/20
by between 1.30ºC and 1.33ºC in August 2026
1¢+16¢$1.0K2/10by between 1.30ºC and 1.33ºC in August 2026+16¢1¢
$1.0K2/10
by between 1.34ºC and 1.37ºC in August 2026
5¢+9¢$1.9K2/12by between 1.34ºC and 1.37ºC in August 2026+9¢5¢
$1.9K2/12
by between 1.38ºC and 1.41ºC in August 2026
69¢−33¢$1.2K4/7by between 1.38ºC and 1.41ºC in August 2026−33¢69¢
$1.2K4/7
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
3 YESvs14 NO
18%82%
82% of smart money is betting NO on this market
Quiet 24h — no new smart whale entries
YES Team54 traders
Total Invested
$14
Avg Win Rate
79.5%
Aggregate P&L
-$14(-100.0%)
Whales
3
NO Team54 traders
Total Invested
$1.6K
Avg Win Rate
85.8%
Aggregate P&L
+$752(+48.5%)
Whales
14
D
donthackme🥇
Entry 100¢·827.4 shares
Invested
$827
Win Rate
87.9%
Position P&L
$-4
$-4INV $827 · WR 87.9%
G
graynotebook19🥈
Entry 100¢·236 shares
Invested
$235
Win Rate
89.6%
Position P&L
$-0
$-0INV $235 · WR 89.6%
V
vitalik-buttrig🥉
Entry 99¢·164.6 shares
Invested
$163
Win Rate
85.7%
Position P&L
+$0
+$0INV $163 · WR 85.7%
B
balthazar
Entry 99¢·139.8 shares
Invested
$139
Win Rate
71.6%
Position P&L
+$1
+$1INV $139 · WR 71.6%
K
korda77
Entry 100¢·59 shares
Invested
$59
Win Rate
85.1%
Position P&L
$-0
$-0INV $59 · WR 85.1%
M
mustbethewater
Entry 100¢·50 shares
Invested
$50
Win Rate
79.5%
Position P&L
$-0
$-0INV $50 · WR 79.5%
S
smallreceipt
Entry 100¢·25 shares
Invested
$25
Win Rate
89.4%
Position P&L
$-0
$-0INV $25 · WR 89.4%
J
James-Claude
Entry 66¢·35 shares
Invested
$23
Win Rate
75.4%
Position P&L
+$12
+$12INV $23 · WR 75.4%
N
northdrawer
Entry 98¢·17 shares
Invested
$17
Win Rate
87.3%
Position P&L
+$0
+$0INV $17 · WR 87.3%
H
Hugin-og-Munin
Entry 78¢·14 shares
Invested
$11
Win Rate
64.4%
Position P&L
+$3
+$3INV $11 · WR 64.4%
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