6 days left
Will global temperature increase by between 1.42ºC and 1.45ºC in August 2026?
YES Price
24¢
24% implied
NO Price
76¢
76% implied
Volume
$3.8K
124 trades
Smart Whales
18
of 42 traders
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
18 MARKETS · $71.8K MATCHEDSmart Money
by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in July 2026
0¢+10¢$5.4K2/19by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in July 2026+10¢0¢
$5.4K2/19
by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in July 2026
3¢+20¢$12.6K7/23by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in July 2026+20¢3¢
$12.6K7/23
by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in July 2026
95¢−69¢$13.6K9/25by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in July 2026−69¢95¢
$13.6K9/25
by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in July 2026
3¢+20¢$15.2K9/30by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in July 2026+20¢3¢
$15.2K9/30
by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in August 2026
4¢+51¢$52511/9by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in August 2026+51¢4¢
$52511/9
by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in August 2026
1¢+49¢$4389/9by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in August 2026+49¢1¢
$4389/9
by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in August 2026
9¢+9¢$2703/14by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in August 2026+9¢9¢
$2703/14
by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in August 2026
20¢−15¢$3071/20by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in August 2026−15¢20¢
$3071/20
by between 1.30ºC and 1.33ºC in August 2026
1¢+16¢$1.0K2/10by between 1.30ºC and 1.33ºC in August 2026+16¢1¢
$1.0K2/10
by between 1.34ºC and 1.37ºC in August 2026
5¢+9¢$1.9K2/12by between 1.34ºC and 1.37ºC in August 2026+9¢5¢
$1.9K2/12
by between 1.38ºC and 1.41ºC in August 2026
66¢−30¢$1.2K4/7by between 1.38ºC and 1.41ºC in August 2026−30¢66¢
$1.2K4/7
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
8 YESvs10 NO
44%56%
56% of smart money is betting NO on this market
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 77%
+11 new YES$464+9 new NO$1.5K
4 smart whales5 smart whales
YES Team36 traders
Total Invested
$587
Avg Win Rate
57.8%
Aggregate P&L
-$102(-17.3%)
Whales
8
F
flawfence🥇
Entry 26¢·1,587.2 shares
Invested
$417
Win Rate
55.7%
Position P&L
$-52
$-52INV $417 · WR 55.7%
C
Corny-Hyphenation🥈
Entry 34¢·311.3 shares
Invested
$105
Win Rate
62.7%
Position P&L
$-33
$-33INV $105 · WR 62.7%
Z
Zaratustra🥉
Entry 29¢·137 shares
Invested
$40
Win Rate
60.1%
Position P&L
$-8
$-8INV $40 · WR 60.1%
S
Started-with-20-USD
Entry 41¢·21 shares
Invested
$9
Win Rate
59.7%
Position P&L
$-4
$-4INV $9 · WR 59.7%
W
Wilted-Burden-Survivor
Entry 28¢·30 shares
Invested
$8
Win Rate
73.7%
Position P&L
$-2
$-2INV $8 · WR 73.7%
R
russell110320
Entry 40¢·20 shares
Invested
$8
Win Rate
66.5%
Position P&L
$-3
$-3INV $8 · WR 66.5%
M
Mysaria
Entry 17¢·3.6 shares
Invested
$1
Win Rate
89.3%
Position P&L
+$0
+$0INV $1 · WR 89.3%
P
plainfolder
Entry 17¢·1.3 shares
Invested
$0
Win Rate
85.3%
Position P&L
+$0
+$0INV $0 · WR 85.3%
NO Team36 traders
Total Invested
$1.5K
Avg Win Rate
67.6%
Aggregate P&L
+$133(+8.8%)
Whales
10
R
russell110320🥇
Entry 75¢·1,679.4 shares
Invested
$1.3K
Win Rate
66.5%
Position P&L
+$36
+$36INV $1.3K · WR 66.5%
S
Started-with-20-USD🥈
Entry 58¢·126 shares
Invested
$74
Win Rate
59.7%
Position P&L
+$23
+$23INV $74 · WR 59.7%
J
JustClickeverywhere🥉
Entry 65¢·73.5 shares
Invested
$48
Win Rate
78.6%
Position P&L
+$8
+$8INV $48 · WR 78.6%
S
SpringlyFawl
Entry 73¢·54 shares
Invested
$39
Win Rate
74.9%
Position P&L
+$2
+$2INV $39 · WR 74.9%
A
Admirable-Trust
Entry 57¢·40 shares
Invested
$23
Win Rate
88.6%
Position P&L
+$8
+$8INV $23 · WR 88.6%
J
JustClickeverywhere
Entry 37¢·51 shares
Invested
$19
Win Rate
78.6%
Position P&L
+$20
+$20INV $19 · WR 78.6%
K
korda77
Entry 27¢·59 shares
Invested
$16
Win Rate
85.1%
Position P&L
+$29
+$29INV $16 · WR 85.1%
N
new-account-test222
Entry 75¢·15 shares
Invested
$11
Win Rate
59.2%
Position P&L
+$0
+$0INV $11 · WR 59.2%
G
god83743894
Entry 60¢·15 shares
Invested
$9
Win Rate
84.6%
Position P&L
+$2
+$2INV $9 · WR 84.6%
G
god83743894
Entry 40¢·15 shares
Invested
$6
Win Rate
84.6%
Position P&L
+$5
+$5INV $6 · WR 84.6%
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