Resolved
Will global temperature increase by between 1.42ºC and 1.45ºC in August 2026?
YES Price
0¢
0% implied
NO Price
100¢
100% implied
Volume
$9.3K
379 trades
Smart Whales
27
of 96 traders
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
7 MARKETS · $10.9K MATCHEDSmart Money
by between 1.42ºC and 1.45ºC in August 2026←
0¢+19¢$9.3K5/22by between 1.42ºC and 1.45ºC in August 2026←+19¢0¢
$9.3K5/22
by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in October 2026
25¢−25¢$1640/1by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in October 2026−25¢25¢
$1640/1
by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in October 2026
33¢—$50/0by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in October 2026—33¢
$50/0
by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in October 2026
44¢—$950/0by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in October 2026—44¢
$950/0
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
5 YESvs22 NO
19%82%
82% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 100% YES by dollars · 2 YES vs 0 NO taking a side
Quiet 24h — no new smart whale entries
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $806 is directional: YES $806·NO $0YES Team
Total Invested
$863
Avg Win Rate
57.6%
Aggregate P&L
-$855(-99.0%)
Whales
5
F
flawfence◆Proven🥇
Entry 23¢·2,961.1 shares
Invested
$678
Win Rate
55.4%
Position P&L
$-678
$-678INV $678 · WR 55.4%
C
Corny-Hyphenation🥈
Entry 24¢·525.8 shares
Invested
$129
Win Rate
67.4%
Position P&L
$-129
$-129INV $129 · WR 67.4%
Z
Zaratustra🥉
Entry 29¢·137 shares
Invested
$40
Win Rate
60.2%
Position P&L
$-40
$-40INV $40 · WR 60.2%
W
Wilted-Burden-Survivor
Entry 28¢·30 shares
Invested
$8
Win Rate
70.5%
Position P&L
$-8
$-8INV $8 · WR 70.5%
Showing top 4 of 5
NO Team
Total Invested
$3.6K
Avg Win Rate
71.6%
Aggregate P&L
+$3.1K(+85.9%)
Whales
22
R
russell110320🥇
Entry 48¢·4,660.3 shares
Invested
$2.2K
Win Rate
67.5%
Position P&L
+$2426
+$2426INV $2.2K · WR 67.5%
F
Famous-Moody🥈
Entry 80¢·425 shares
Invested
$339
Win Rate
66.5%
Position P&L
+$86
+$86INV $339 · WR 66.5%
D
donthackme🥉
Entry 70¢·350.2 shares
Invested
$245
Win Rate
87.7%
Position P&L
+$105
+$105INV $245 · WR 87.7%
S
Started-with-20-USD◆Proven
Entry 50¢·252 shares
Invested
$126
Win Rate
59.0%
Position P&L
+$126
+$126INV $126 · WR 59.0%
Q
quietparcel
Entry 54¢·205.1 shares
Invested
$111
Win Rate
88.7%
Position P&L
+$94
+$94INV $111 · WR 88.7%
Q
qwen4.1.fund
Entry 64¢·159.4 shares
Invested
$102
Win Rate
85.9%
Position P&L
+$57
+$57INV $102 · WR 85.9%
P
plainfolder
Entry 56¢·162.6 shares
Invested
$91
Win Rate
86.0%
Position P&L
+$71
+$71INV $91 · WR 86.0%
G
god83743894
Entry 82¢·75 shares
Invested
$61
Win Rate
85.7%
Position P&L
+$14
+$14INV $61 · WR 85.7%
M
mustbethewater
Entry 84¢·69.3 shares
Invested
$58
Win Rate
79.6%
Position P&L
+$11
+$11INV $58 · WR 79.6%
N
northdrawer
Entry 76¢·70 shares
Invested
$53
Win Rate
87.7%
Position P&L
+$17
+$17INV $53 · WR 87.7%
Showing top 10 of 22
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