Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in August 2026?
YES Price
9¢
9% implied
NO Price
92¢
92% implied
Volume
$270
83 trades
Smart Whales
15
of 34 traders
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
18 MARKETS · $71.8K MATCHEDSmart Money
by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in July 2026
0¢+10¢$5.4K2/19by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in July 2026+10¢0¢
$5.4K2/19
by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in July 2026
3¢+20¢$12.6K7/23by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in July 2026+20¢3¢
$12.6K7/23
by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in July 2026
95¢−69¢$13.6K9/25by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in July 2026−69¢95¢
$13.6K9/25
by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in July 2026
3¢+20¢$15.2K9/30by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in July 2026+20¢3¢
$15.2K9/30
by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in August 2026
4¢+51¢$52511/9by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in August 2026+51¢4¢
$52511/9
by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in August 2026
1¢+49¢$4389/9by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in August 2026+49¢1¢
$4389/9
by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in August 2026←
9¢+9¢$2703/14by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in August 2026←+9¢9¢
$2703/14
by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in August 2026
20¢−15¢$3071/20by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in August 2026−15¢20¢
$3071/20
by between 1.30ºC and 1.33ºC in August 2026
1¢+16¢$1.0K2/10by between 1.30ºC and 1.33ºC in August 2026+16¢1¢
$1.0K2/10
by between 1.34ºC and 1.37ºC in August 2026
5¢+9¢$1.9K2/12by between 1.34ºC and 1.37ºC in August 2026+9¢5¢
$1.9K2/12
by between 1.38ºC and 1.41ºC in August 2026
69¢−33¢$1.2K4/7by between 1.38ºC and 1.41ºC in August 2026−33¢69¢
$1.2K4/7
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
2 YESvs13 NO
13%87%
87% of smart money is betting NO on this market
Quiet 24h — no new smart whale entries
YES Team34 traders
Total Invested
$13
Avg Win Rate
84.3%
Aggregate P&L
-$13(-97.0%)
Whales
2
NO Team34 traders
Total Invested
$1.2K
Avg Win Rate
85.0%
Aggregate P&L
+$1.2K(+99.4%)
Whales
13
M
Mysaria🥇
Entry 99¢·332.5 shares
Invested
$330
Win Rate
89.3%
Position P&L
$-26
$-26INV $330 · WR 89.3%
P
plainfolder🥈
Entry 99¢·320 shares
Invested
$317
Win Rate
85.3%
Position P&L
$-24
$-24INV $317 · WR 85.3%
Q
quietparcel🥉
Entry 98¢·125 shares
Invested
$123
Win Rate
88.9%
Position P&L
$-8
$-8INV $123 · WR 88.9%
K
korda77
Entry 99¢·118 shares
Invested
$117
Win Rate
85.1%
Position P&L
$-9
$-9INV $117 · WR 85.1%
B
balthazar
Entry 99¢·100 shares
Invested
$99
Win Rate
71.6%
Position P&L
$-8
$-8INV $99 · WR 71.6%
V
vitalik-buttrig
Entry 99¢·72.2 shares
Invested
$71
Win Rate
85.7%
Position P&L
$-5
$-5INV $71 · WR 85.7%
D
donthackme
Entry 99¢·54.4 shares
Invested
$54
Win Rate
87.9%
Position P&L
$-4
$-4INV $54 · WR 87.9%
M
mustbethewater
Entry 99¢·50 shares
Invested
$50
Win Rate
79.5%
Position P&L
$-4
$-4INV $50 · WR 79.5%
E
e46m3
Entry 99¢·25 shares
Invested
$25
Win Rate
79.2%
Position P&L
$-2
$-2INV $25 · WR 79.2%
J
JustClickeverywhere
Entry 94¢·25.6 shares
Invested
$24
Win Rate
78.6%
Position P&L
$-1
$-1INV $24 · WR 78.6%
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