Economics81 days left
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?
YES Price
19¢
19% implied
NO Price
81¢
81% implied
Volume
$1.38M
5,517 trades
Smart Whales
167
of 1,430 traders
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
14 MARKETS · $6.65M MATCHEDSmart Money
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026
0¢+18¢$154.5K14/64Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026+18¢0¢
$154.5K14/64
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026
0¢+17¢$152.1K14/69Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026+17¢0¢
$152.1K14/69
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026
0¢+21¢$154.5K15/58Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026+21¢0¢
$154.5K15/58
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.25% at the end of 2026
0¢+10¢$94.4K7/61Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.25% at the end of 2026+10¢0¢
$94.4K7/61
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026
0¢+25¢$181.2K26/79Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026+25¢0¢
$181.2K26/79
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2026
0¢+14¢$70.6K11/70Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2026+14¢0¢
$70.6K11/70
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026
0¢+18¢$500.9K15/70Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026+18¢0¢
$500.9K15/70
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026
0¢+14¢$87.4K12/71Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026+14¢0¢
$87.4K12/71
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026
2¢+14¢$207.9K14/72Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026+14¢2¢
$207.9K14/72
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026
1¢+33¢$539.6K58/113Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026+33¢1¢
$539.6K58/113
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026←
19¢+16¢$1.38M58/108Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026←+16¢19¢
$1.38M58/108
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026
67¢−50¢$446.2K18/88Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026−50¢67¢
$446.2K18/88
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Smart Money Consensus
61 YESvs106 NO
37%64%
64% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 88% YES by dollars · 32 YES vs 25 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 75%
+4 new YES$6+3 new NO$17
0 smart whales1 smart whale
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $2.6K is directional: YES $2.3K·NO $327YES Team
Total Invested
$7.9K
Avg Win Rate
73.4%
Aggregate P&L
-$2.0K(-25.4%)
Whales
61
D
devote666🥇hedged
Entry 99¢·1,142 shares·also $19 on NO
Invested
$1.1K
Win Rate
88.9%
Position P&L
$-908
$-908INV $1.1K · WR 88.9%
A
akimbogod🥈
Entry 36¢·2,967.5 shares
Invested
$1.1K
Win Rate
67.7%
Position P&L
$-523
$-523INV $1.1K · WR 67.7%
N
nurseEnroll🥉hedged
Entry 98¢·1,016 shares·also $17 on NO
Invested
$998
Win Rate
73.1%
Position P&L
$-804
$-804INV $998 · WR 73.1%
L
lake-cupboardhedged
Entry 98¢·895 shares·also $16 on NO
Invested
$877
Win Rate
76.2%
Position P&L
$-707
$-707INV $877 · WR 76.2%
P
podairpod
Entry 32¢·1,572 shares
Invested
$496
Win Rate
60.0%
Position P&L
$-201
$-201INV $496 · WR 60.0%
D
DancewithRisk
Entry 33¢·981.8 shares
Invested
$324
Win Rate
66.1%
Position P&L
$-140
$-140INV $324 · WR 66.1%
T
TheReturnOfDarthMaul
Entry 32¢·1,016.9 shares
Invested
$321
Win Rate
62.7%
Position P&L
$-137
$-137INV $321 · WR 62.7%
N
newnewuser
Entry 15¢·207.3 shares
Invested
$32
Win Rate
61.7%
Position P&L
+$7
+$7INV $32 · WR 61.7%
Q
quizpm14hedged
Entry 2¢·1,660 shares·also $1.6K on NO
Invested
$30
Win Rate
77.8%
Position P&L
+$286
+$286INV $30 · WR 77.8%
C
convince.mirror.lockhedged
Entry 2¢·1,715 shares·also $1.7K on NO
Invested
$29
Win Rate
75.9%
Position P&L
+$298
+$298INV $29 · WR 75.9%
Showing top 10 of 61
NO Team
Total Invested
$15.7K
Avg Win Rate
74.1%
Aggregate P&L
+$3.9K(+24.6%)
Whales
106
C
convince.mirror.lock🥇hedged
Entry 98¢·1,715 shares·also $29 on YES
Invested
$1.7K
Win Rate
75.9%
Position P&L
$-296
$-296INV $1.7K · WR 75.9%
Q
quizpm14🥈hedged
Entry 98¢·1,660 shares·also $30 on YES
Invested
$1.6K
Win Rate
77.8%
Position P&L
$-288
$-288INV $1.6K · WR 77.8%
B
brick2510🥉hedged
Entry 99¢·1,267 shares·also $22 on YES
Invested
$1.2K
Win Rate
64.0%
Position P&L
$-224
$-224INV $1.2K · WR 64.0%
I
influenz.eth
Entry 47¢·2,347.2 shares
Invested
$1.1K
Win Rate
85.8%
Position P&L
+$786
+$786INV $1.1K · WR 85.8%
T
tortoise-theme-whiphedged
Entry 99¢·944 shares·also $13 on YES
Invested
$932
Win Rate
71.4%
Position P&L
$-168
$-168INV $932 · WR 71.4%
B
base44hedged
Entry 98¢·946 shares·also $17 on YES
Invested
$927
Win Rate
61.9%
Position P&L
$-161
$-161INV $927 · WR 61.9%
L
like-responsehedged
Entry 98¢·800 shares·also $14 on YES
Invested
$784
Win Rate
70.8%
Position P&L
$-136
$-136INV $784 · WR 70.8%
A
abandon.denial.regular
Entry 98¢·756 shares
Invested
$742
Win Rate
85.0%
Position P&L
$-130
$-130INV $742 · WR 85.0%
B
balthazar
Entry 82¢·872.7 shares
Invested
$718
Win Rate
72.2%
Position P&L
$-11
$-11INV $718 · WR 72.2%
R
rainbowlilies
Entry 10¢·1,743.3 shares
Invested
$168
Win Rate
84.8%
Position P&L
+$1243
+$1243INV $168 · WR 84.8%
Showing top 10 of 106
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