fed26 · Polymarket wallet 0xaf45…ec7d

Wallet snapshot

fed26 has made 2,304 trades on Polymarket across 34 markets, $855K in volume. Most of it is in economics (62%) and crypto (21%). On 22 resolved markets the win rate is 59.1%, lifetime P&L +$1,958. It holds 8 open positions right now; the largest is Yes on "Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?". Last trade: Oct 29, 2026.

Largest open positions

• Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes · $257K · 40¢ → 98¢
• Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?No · $3,340 · 39¢ → 99¢
• Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?No · $2,316 · 50¢ → 98¢
• Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes · $1,734 · 1¢ → 2¢
• Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes · $1,534 · 1¢ → 0¢
• Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?Yes · $39 · 40¢ → 1¢
• Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?Yes · $21 · 8¢ → 21¢
• Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?No · $2 · 83¢ → 100¢

Latest closed positions

• Fed rate hike in 2026?Yes · +$4,639 · Sep 16, 2026
• Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30?No · +$1,899 · Jul 1, 2026
• Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No · +$19 · Jun 18, 2026
• Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by December 31?Yes · -$36 · Jun 18, 2026
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Yes · +$170 · Jun 17, 2026
• Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Yes · -$3,207 · Jun 17, 2026
• Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by December 31?

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