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Economics16 days left

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

View on Polymarket
YES Price
20¢
20% implied
NO Price
80¢
80% implied
Volume
$7.51M
21,107 trades
Smart Whales
591
of 2,807 traders · 20 on both sides

Fed Decision in October?

9 MARKETS · $34.36M MATCHED

Smart Money Consensus

323 YESvs288 NO
53%47%
53% of smart money holding this market is on YESNet of both-sides wallets: 87% YES by dollars · 198 YES vs 113 NO taking a side · 3 on both sides
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 74%· net of hedges
+48 new YES$62.5K+76 new NO$171.3K
$7.7K of this was bought on both sides by the same 18 buyers — left out of momentum
4 smart whales22 smart whales
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
$133.3K of $892.9K is hedged across different prices by 20 wallets. True directional: YES $660.1K·NO $99.5K
YES Team
Total Invested
$982.9K
Avg Win Rate
73.2%
Aggregate P&L
-$478.8K(-48.7%)
Whales
323
E
Erasmus.🥇hedged
Entry 40¢·816,109.7 shares·also $16.0K on NO
$-192821INV $327.5K · WR 70.7%
M
MysticFind🥈hedged
Entry 29¢·515,052.6 shares·also $33.0K on NO
$-64975INV $150.0K · WR 90.5%
T
TheReturnOfDarthMaul🥉
Entry 53¢·159,475.1 shares
$-55863INV $83.8K · WR 62.7%
A
ArmageddonRewardsBillyhedged
Entry 54¢·144,202.5 shares·also $101.8K on NO
$-49031INV $77.2K · WR 57.7%
N
ndb1
Entry 63¢·47,964.8 shares
$-22304INV $30.2K · WR 73.5%
M
MisTKyhedged
Entry 51¢·51,852.9 shares·also $31.6K on NO
$-16386INV $26.5K · WR 71.3%
W
WongKimArk
Entry 48¢·50,000 shares
$-15550INV $23.8K · WR 58.6%
A
Ahpo
Entry 41¢·52,429 shares
$-11295INV $21.5K · WR 92.2%
T
TheFOMCGambler
Entry 18¢·83,298.3 shares
$-1919INV $14.8K · WR 81.6%
S
SeutervoinenProven
Entry 66¢·17,476.1 shares
$-8651INV $11.5K · WR 91.4%
Showing top 10 of 323

Smart Whale Trades

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Price History (YES)

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Smart money 53% YES: the Fed increase interest rates by 25…