Economics38 days left
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
YES Price
55¢
55% implied
NO Price
45¢
45% implied
Volume
$1.86M
8,444 trades
Smart Whales
251
of 1,299 traders · 4 on both sides
Fed Decision in October?
9 MARKETS · $8.66M MATCHEDSmart Money
by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting
0¢+28¢$1.22M28/72by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting+28¢0¢
$1.22M28/72
by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting
1¢+36¢$1.59M72/121by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting+36¢1¢
$1.59M72/121
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting
44¢+24¢$2.20M221/105Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting+24¢44¢
$2.20M221/105
by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting←
55¢−7¢$1.86M120/132by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting←−7¢55¢
$1.86M120/132
by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting
1¢+27¢$1.27M33/85by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting+27¢1¢
$1.27M33/85
by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting
68¢−39¢$299.6K31/77by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting−39¢68¢
$299.6K31/77
by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting
2¢+22¢$175.0K16/50by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting+22¢2¢
$175.0K16/50
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
121 YESvs134 NO
48%53%
53% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 86% YES by dollars · 83 YES vs 54 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowYES momentum 89%· net of hedges
+54 new YES$94.2K+34 new NO$13.2K
$3.9K of this was bought on both sides by the same 8 buyers — left out of momentum
11 smart whales9 smart whales
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
$5.7K of $338.0K is hedged across different prices by 4 wallets. True directional: YES $286.7K·NO $45.6KYES Team
Total Invested
$315.1K
Avg Win Rate
66.8%
Aggregate P&L
+$112.1K(+35.6%)
Whales
121
E
Erasmus.🥇
Entry 44¢·272,611.7 shares
Invested
$120.1K
Win Rate
70.7%
Position P&L
+$28511
+$28511INV $120.1K · WR 70.7%
A
ArmageddonRewardsBilly🥈
Entry 48¢·172,531.4 shares
Invested
$83.0K
Win Rate
58.1%
Position P&L
+$11021
+$11021INV $83.0K · WR 58.1%
M
mr.ozi🥉
Entry 54¢·32,409.5 shares
Invested
$17.5K
Win Rate
71.3%
Position P&L
+$162
+$162INV $17.5K · WR 71.3%
T
TheReturnOfDarthMaul
Entry 45¢·29,464.9 shares
Invested
$13.4K
Win Rate
62.9%
Position P&L
+$2972
+$2972INV $13.4K · WR 62.9%
R
ratehikes
Entry 13¢·89,337.7 shares
Invested
$11.4K
Win Rate
68.8%
Position P&L
+$37256
+$37256INV $11.4K · WR 68.8%
I
ImJustKen
Entry 34¢·25,000 shares
Invested
$8.5K
Win Rate
61.3%
Position P&L
+$5174
+$5174INV $8.5K · WR 61.3%
S
SheltonDoubter
Entry 43¢·15,310.2 shares
Invested
$6.5K
Win Rate
90.3%
Position P&L
+$1824
+$1824INV $6.5K · WR 90.3%
Q
QMG-CORE
Entry 20¢·31,000 shares
Invested
$6.2K
Win Rate
80.9%
Position P&L
+$10695
+$10695INV $6.2K · WR 80.9%
R
RememberAmalek
Entry 25¢·22,572.5 shares
Invested
$5.6K
Win Rate
65.1%
Position P&L
+$6704
+$6704INV $5.6K · WR 65.1%
W
WongKimArk
Entry 32¢·10,000 shares
Invested
$3.2K
Win Rate
58.5%
Position P&L
+$2350
+$2350INV $3.2K · WR 58.5%
Showing top 10 of 121
NO Team
Total Invested
$282.0K
Avg Win Rate
74.8%
Aggregate P&L
-$27.0K(-9.6%)
Whales
134
D
donthackme🥇
Entry 58¢·80,944 shares
Invested
$47.1K
Win Rate
87.7%
Position P&L
$-10241
$-10241INV $47.1K · WR 87.7%
K
Kevin-Warsh🥈
Entry 48¢·79,358.2 shares
Invested
$37.8K
Win Rate
55.0%
Position P&L
$-1664
$-1664INV $37.8K · WR 55.0%
F
foodenjoyer🥉hedged
Entry 45¢·38,913.6 shares·also $2.8K on YES
Invested
$17.6K
Win Rate
60.2%
Position P&L
+$71
+$71INV $17.6K · WR 60.2%
V
VictorLudorum
Entry 60¢·24,285.6 shares
Invested
$14.7K
Win Rate
88.2%
Position P&L
$-3623
$-3623INV $14.7K · WR 88.2%
H
highstakebet
Entry 59¢·22,424.3 shares
Invested
$13.3K
Win Rate
85.8%
Position P&L
$-3081
$-3081INV $13.3K · WR 85.8%
I
Imbleciar
Entry 52¢·20,672.7 shares
Invested
$10.7K
Win Rate
75.0%
Position P&L
$-1344
$-1344INV $10.7K · WR 75.0%
X
XAE12Archangel
Entry 53¢·18,157 shares
Invested
$9.6K
Win Rate
77.8%
Position P&L
$-1294
$-1294INV $9.6K · WR 77.8%
T
TimRob
Entry 46¢·19,910.9 shares
Invested
$9.1K
Win Rate
76.5%
Position P&L
$-70
$-70INV $9.1K · WR 76.5%
G
glhfgg
Entry 55¢·14,875 shares
Invested
$8.2K
Win Rate
71.3%
Position P&L
$-1413
$-1413INV $8.2K · WR 71.3%
D
0xd32ce89f...
Entry 63¢·11,967.5 shares
Invested
$7.5K
Win Rate
83.2%
Position P&L
$-2057
$-2057INV $7.5K · WR 83.2%
Showing top 10 of 134
Smart Whale Trades
Loading trades...
Price History (YES)
Loading chart...
Loaded in 1ms (cached)