Economics79 days left
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?
YES Price
76¢
76% implied
NO Price
24¢
24% implied
Volume
$142.5K
1,959 trades
Smart Whales
53
of 384 traders · 2 on both sides
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
20 MARKETS · $1.87M MATCHEDSmart Money
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027
3¢+40¢$20.1K9/12Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027+40¢3¢
$20.1K9/12
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027
2¢+27¢$57.3K12/30Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027+27¢2¢
$57.3K12/30
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027
2¢+41¢$142.7K13/17Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027+41¢2¢
$142.7K13/17
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027
9¢+35¢$44.2K17/22Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027+35¢9¢
$44.2K17/22
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027
6¢+20¢$81.2K6/17Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027+20¢6¢
$81.2K6/17
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027←
76¢−29¢$142.5K26/29Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027←−29¢76¢
$142.5K26/29
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.0% or lower before 2027
2¢+31¢$23.0K6/12Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.0% or lower before 2027+31¢2¢
$23.0K6/12
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.0% or lower before 2027
3¢+15¢$2.4K2/9Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.0% or lower before 2027+15¢3¢
$2.4K2/9
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027
1¢+20¢$5.2K3/11Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027+20¢1¢
$5.2K3/11
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.5% or lower before 2027
2¢+31¢$28.4K5/10Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.5% or lower before 2027+31¢2¢
$28.4K5/10
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027
1¢+46¢$13.3K7/8Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027+46¢1¢
$13.3K7/8
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.75% or lower before 2027
2¢+18¢$7411/4Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.75% or lower before 2027+18¢2¢
$7411/4
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027
2¢+23¢$107.6K5/15Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027+23¢2¢
$107.6K5/15
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027
2¢+23¢$132.6K5/15Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027+23¢2¢
$132.6K5/15
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0% or lower before 2027
2¢+31¢$21.3K9/18Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0% or lower before 2027+31¢2¢
$21.3K9/18
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027
2¢+40¢$42.3K10/14Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027+40¢2¢
$42.3K10/14
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027
2¢+35¢$226.3K20/34Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027+35¢2¢
$226.3K20/34
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027
3¢+46¢$369.8K34/36Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027+46¢3¢
$369.8K34/36
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
26 YESvs29 NO
47%53%
53% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 51% YES by dollars · 12 YES vs 13 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowYES momentum 89%· net of hedges
+5 new YES$77+2 new NO$14
$10 of this was bought on both sides by the same 1 buyer — left out of momentum
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
$28 of $14.3K is hedged across different prices by 2 wallets. True directional: YES $7.3K·NO $7.0KYES Team
Total Invested
$9.0K
Avg Win Rate
61.4%
Aggregate P&L
+$982(+10.9%)
Whales
26
G
gambler925🥇
Entry 80¢·5,611.2 shares
Invested
$4.5K
Win Rate
56.1%
Position P&L
$-160
$-160INV $4.5K · WR 56.1%
P
puravida🥈
Entry 79¢·1,950 shares
Invested
$1.5K
Win Rate
59.9%
Position P&L
$-59
$-59INV $1.5K · WR 59.9%
A
AddilynRamirez🥉hedged
Entry 95¢·978 shares·also $52 on NO
Invested
$925
Win Rate
75.0%
Position P&L
$-185
$-185INV $925 · WR 75.0%
T
tinman2hedged
Entry 66¢·849.8 shares·also $5 on NO
Invested
$558
Win Rate
65.9%
Position P&L
+$89
+$89INV $558 · WR 65.9%
T
Tough-Stormhedged
Entry 95¢·400 shares·also $22 on NO
Invested
$379
Win Rate
61.5%
Position P&L
$-76
$-76INV $379 · WR 61.5%
W
Wilted-Burden-Survivor
Entry 80¢·374 shares
Invested
$298
Win Rate
70.5%
Position P&L
$-13
$-13INV $298 · WR 70.5%
A
Ahpo
Entry 89¢·288.1 shares
Invested
$255
Win Rate
92.2%
Position P&L
$-37
$-37INV $255 · WR 92.2%
W
Worst-Pretzel
Entry 85¢·135.4 shares
Invested
$115
Win Rate
63.8%
Position P&L
$-10
$-10INV $115 · WR 63.8%
B
Bikesarethebesthedged
Entry 12¢·859 shares·also $846 on NO
Invested
$106
Win Rate
56.3%
Position P&L
+$545
+$545INV $106 · WR 56.3%
P
PABLOESCOBAR25
Entry 52¢·144 shares
Invested
$75
Win Rate
61.0%
Position P&L
+$34
+$34INV $75 · WR 61.0%
Showing top 10 of 26
NO Team
Total Invested
$10.3K
Avg Win Rate
73.9%
Aggregate P&L
-$6.9K(-67.2%)
Whales
29
L
LA17🥇
Entry 77¢·6,815.2 shares
Invested
$5.3K
Win Rate
82.5%
Position P&L
$-3729
$-3729INV $5.3K · WR 82.5%
I
ImJustKen🥈
Entry 93¢·1,555 shares
Invested
$1.4K
Win Rate
61.2%
Position P&L
$-1069
$-1069INV $1.4K · WR 61.2%
P
Pepe1234567🥉
Entry 94¢·1,385.4 shares
Invested
$1.3K
Win Rate
64.4%
Position P&L
$-988
$-988INV $1.3K · WR 64.4%
B
Bikesarethebesthedged
Entry 79¢·1,065.2 shares·also $106 on YES
Invested
$846
Win Rate
56.3%
Position P&L
$-587
$-587INV $846 · WR 56.3%
Y
YancyBuchananhedged
Entry 95¢·550 shares·also $30 on YES
Invested
$521
Win Rate
82.1%
Position P&L
$-388
$-388INV $521 · WR 82.1%
C
CaysonFisherhedged
Entry 95¢·400 shares·also $22 on YES
Invested
$379
Win Rate
72.0%
Position P&L
$-282
$-282INV $379 · WR 72.0%
D
DancewithRisk
Entry 26¢·703.3 shares
Invested
$181
Win Rate
66.1%
Position P&L
$-13
$-13INV $181 · WR 66.1%
C
CompulsiveGambler
Entry 94¢·100 shares
Invested
$94
Win Rate
68.3%
Position P&L
$-70
$-70INV $94 · WR 68.3%
D
DEGENKHAN◆Proven
Entry 81¢·116 shares
Invested
$94
Win Rate
66.6%
Position P&L
$-66
$-66INV $94 · WR 66.6%
A
AddilynRamirezhedged
Entry 5¢·978 shares·also $925 on YES
Invested
$52
Win Rate
75.0%
Position P&L
+$185
+$185INV $52 · WR 75.0%
Showing top 10 of 29
Smart Whale Trades
Loading trades...
Price History (YES)
Loading chart...
Loaded in 1321ms