Politics23 days left

Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%?

View on Polymarket

YES Price

6¢

6% implied

NO Price

94¢

94% implied

Volume

$17.2K

596 trades

Smart Whales

34

of 140 traders

2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory

13 MARKETS · $154.5K MATCHED

Smart Money

4¢+17¢$4.9K7/26

by 16% or more+17¢4¢

by between 14% and 16%

3¢+15¢$4.5K6/27

by between 14% and 16%+15¢3¢

by between 12% and 14%

9¢+8¢$5.9K5/24

by between 12% and 14%+8¢9¢

by between 10% and 12%

23¢−4¢$10.8K6/26

by between 10% and 12%−4¢23¢

by between 8% and 10%

28¢+3¢$16.2K13/29

by between 8% and 10%+3¢28¢

by between 6% and 8%

18¢+8¢$17.1K10/29

by between 6% and 8%+8¢18¢

by between 4% and 6%

9¢+17¢$8.2K10/28

by between 4% and 6%+17¢9¢

by between 2% and 4%←

6¢+3¢$17.2K3/31

by between 2% and 4%←+3¢6¢

by between 0% and 2%

4¢+8¢$21.9K4/30

by between 0% and 2%+8¢4¢

by between 0% and 2%

2¢+7¢$6.7K3/31

by between 0% and 2%+7¢2¢

by between 2% and 4%

3¢+3¢$31.2K2/31

by between 2% and 4%+3¢3¢

by between 4% and 6%

3¢+6¢$5.0K3/30

by between 4% and 6%+6¢3¢

1¢+12¢$4.9K4/26

by 6% or more+12¢1¢

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Smart Money Consensus

3 YESvs31 NO

9%91%

91% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 1% YES by dollars · 1 YES vs 5 NO taking a side

Quiet 24h — no new smart whale entries

Both-sides exposure · invested basis

No wallet here holds both sides — all $804 is directional: YES $5·NO $799

YES Team

Total Invested

$9

Avg Win Rate

70.8%

Aggregate P&L

-$2(-25.4%)

Whales

3

Entry 8¢·62.5 shares

$-2INV $5 · WR 80.9%

Bikesarethebest🥈hedged

Entry 8¢·44.6 shares·also $60 on NO

$-1INV $4 · WR 56.3%

Entry 0¢·3.4 shares

+$0INV $0 · WR 76.3%

NO Team

Total Invested

$1.5K

Avg Win Rate

71.0%

Aggregate P&L

+$188(+12.3%)

Whales

31

SpectrumProven🥇

Entry 94¢·402.2 shares

+$2INV $377 · WR 60.9%

GluedProven🥈

Entry 87¢·200.8 shares

+$14INV $175 · WR 56.2%

Entry 92¢·155 shares

+$3INV $143 · WR 55.3%

Entry 94¢·151.6 shares

$-0INV $143 · WR 87.5%

Entry 92¢·114.2 shares

+$2INV $105 · WR 72.8%

Entry 93¢·75 shares

+$1INV $70 · WR 86.0%

Entry 91¢·70.7 shares

+$2INV $65 · WR 89.3%

Bikesarethebesthedged

Entry 92¢·65 shares·also $4 on YES

+$1INV $60 · WR 56.3%

Entry 91¢·60 shares

+$2INV $55 · WR 88.2%

Entry 55¢·93.5 shares

+$37INV $51 · WR 87.7%

Showing top 10 of 31

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