Economics47 days left

Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?

Trade on Polymarket

YES Price

15¢

15% implied

NO Price

85¢

85% implied

Volume

$55.5K

1,319 trades

Smart Whales

32

of 303 traders

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

20 MARKETS · $1.93M MATCHED

Smart Money

Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027

2¢+36¢$21.2K5/8

Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027+36¢2¢

Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027

2¢+23¢$58.8K8/24

Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027+23¢2¢

Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027

2¢+29¢$142.8K8/18

Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027+29¢2¢

Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027←

15¢+41¢$55.5K18/14

Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027←+41¢15¢

Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027

2¢+24¢$82.4K5/14

Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027+24¢2¢

Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027

96¢−47¢$159.0K22/23

Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027−47¢96¢

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.0% or lower before 2027

2¢+31¢$23.7K5/10

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.0% or lower before 2027+31¢2¢

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.0% or lower before 2027

2¢+23¢$2.5K3/9

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.0% or lower before 2027+23¢2¢

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027

2¢+13¢$6.0K2/11

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027+13¢2¢

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.5% or lower before 2027

2¢+41¢$28.5K6/8

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.5% or lower before 2027+41¢2¢

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027

1¢+46¢$13.3K7/8

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027+46¢1¢

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.75% or lower before 2027

2¢+12¢$7621/6

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.75% or lower before 2027+12¢2¢

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027

2¢+22¢$110.5K5/16

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027+22¢2¢

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027

2¢+25¢$132.7K6/16

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027+25¢2¢

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0% or lower before 2027

2¢+26¢$21.4K7/18

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0% or lower before 2027+26¢2¢

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027

2¢+38¢$45.6K6/9

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027+38¢2¢

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027

1¢+42¢$233.7K21/28

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027+42¢1¢

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027

2¢+45¢$380.1K37/41

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027+45¢2¢

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027

2¢+44¢$325.3K26/31

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027+44¢2¢

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027

2¢+44¢$83.5K16/19

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027+44¢2¢

Hover a row for the full Polymarket title

Smart Money Consensus

18 YESvs14 NO

Wallets vs price

Price 15¢

YES 56%NO 44%of Smart Money wallets holding this marketYES price 15¢

Net of both-sides wallets: 9% YES by dollars · 10 YES vs 6 NO taking a side

Last 24h FlowNO momentum 85%· net of hedges

$10

$38

+9 new YES+3 new NO

$8 bought on both sides by the same 3 buyers — left out of momentum

In-form wallets ⓘ3 of 3 on NO

YES 0NO 3one dot = one wallet

0 wallets on YES

3 wallets on NO

The top 10% of wallets by Form vs price: over the last 90 days they won more often than the prices they paid implied. In a test on closed markets, when at least 2/3 of three or more such wallets held one side, that side also won more often than its price implied. Positions updated 37h ago. This describes who holds what, not a forecast. How it was tested

Teams by

Both-sides exposure · invested basis

No wallet here holds both sides — all $1.6K is directional: YES $138·NO $1.5K

YES Team

Total Invested

$481

Avg Win Rate

72.5%

Aggregate P&L

-$153(-31.9%)

Whales

18

XAE12Archangel🥇hedged

Entry 94¢·240.7 shares·also $17 on NO

$-191INV $226 · WR 77.0%

DEGENKHAN🥈hedged

Entry 37¢·193.6 shares·also $8 on NO

$-42INV $71 · WR 66.9%

Entry 6¢·924.2 shares

+$49INV $52 · WR 83.3%

Entry 3¢·970.9 shares

+$73INV $34 · WR 58.9%

Entry 34¢·95.3 shares

$-17INV $32 · WR 64.8%

2kingminer1111hedged

Entry 111¢·20 shares·also $1 on NO

$-19INV $22 · WR 73.1%

nufonehudis67hedged

Entry 96¢·20 shares·also $1 on NO

$-16INV $19 · WR 55.2%

Entry 12¢·120 shares

+$5INV $15 · WR 66.8%

Entry 18¢·18.8 shares

$-1INV $3 · WR 56.7%

Elias.Thornwell

Entry 10¢·17.6 shares

+$0INV $2 · WR 68.1%

Showing top 10 of 18

NO Team

Total Invested

$1.7K

Avg Win Rate

80.8%

Aggregate P&L

+$236(+14.1%)

Whales

14

Entry 97¢·1,000 shares

$-114INV $967 · WR 92.4%

Pepe1234567🥈

Entry 95¢·421.1 shares

$-25INV $400 · WR 65.0%

Bikesarethebest🥉hedged

Entry 87¢·179.1 shares·also $2 on YES

$-3INV $156 · WR 56.2%

Single-ChallengeProven

Entry 85¢·69.4 shares

+$3INV $59 · WR 67.5%

Entry 91¢·40 shares

$-3INV $36 · WR 84.3%

XAE12Archangelhedged

Entry 7¢·240.7 shares·also $226 on YES

+$188INV $17 · WR 77.0%

Entry 85¢·13.5 shares·also $1 on YES

+$0INV $11 · WR 73.1%

0xf5183756...hedged

Entry 92¢·12 shares·also $0 on YES

$-1INV $11 · WR 73.7%

Nonstop-Tailspin

Entry 87¢·9.6 shares

+$0INV $8 · WR 81.1%

DEGENKHANhedged

Entry 4¢·193.6 shares·also $71 on YES

+$157INV $8 · WR 66.9%

Showing top 10 of 14

Smart Whale Trades

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Price History (YES)

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