Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 12% and 14%?
YES Price
57¢
57% implied
NO Price
43¢
43% implied
Volume
$45.5K
1,232 trades
Smart Whales
64
of 219 traders · 2 on both sides
2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
13 MARKETS · $352.9K MATCHEDSmart Money
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
30 YESvs36 NO
46%55%
55% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 98% YES by dollars · 14 YES vs 5 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowYES momentum 64%· net of hedges
+74 new YES$20.0K+69 new NO$13.7K
$10.4K of this was bought on both sides by the same 44 buyers — left out of momentum
16 smart whales23 smart whales
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
$39 of $1.5K is hedged across different prices by 2 wallets. True directional: YES $1.5K·NO $37YES Team
Total Invested
$2.2K
Avg Win Rate
60.3%
Aggregate P&L
+$1.8K(+80.4%)
Whales
30
P
Pure-Eyeliner🥇
Entry 75¢·941 shares
Invested
$703
Win Rate
57.5%
Position P&L
$-165
$-165INV $703 · WR 57.5%
B
0xbb151045...🥈
Entry 26¢·800 shares
Invested
$211
Win Rate
56.7%
Position P&L
+$247
+$247INV $211 · WR 56.7%
L
Limping-Baggie-Technique🥉
Entry 70¢·296.4 shares
Invested
$209
Win Rate
60.2%
Position P&L
$-40
$-40INV $209 · WR 60.2%
P
Pricey-Million
Entry 66¢·244 shares
Invested
$161
Win Rate
60.4%
Position P&L
$-22
$-22INV $161 · WR 60.4%
D
deepervalue
Entry 63¢·220.6 shares
Invested
$140
Win Rate
75.8%
Position P&L
$-13
$-13INV $140 · WR 75.8%
C
crckr
Entry 46¢·286 shares
Invested
$132
Win Rate
58.5%
Position P&L
+$32
+$32INV $132 · WR 58.5%
S
sciuboi
Entry 7¢·1,521.3 shares
Invested
$109
Win Rate
71.1%
Position P&L
+$762
+$762INV $109 · WR 71.1%
A
andy29
Entry 7¢·1,180 shares
Invested
$85
Win Rate
55.4%
Position P&L
+$590
+$590INV $85 · WR 55.4%
H
Hasty-Worker
Entry 79¢·76.3 shares
Invested
$60
Win Rate
60.3%
Position P&L
$-17
$-17INV $60 · WR 60.3%
L
lug
Entry 18¢·300 shares
Invested
$53
Win Rate
55.2%
Position P&L
+$119
+$119INV $53 · WR 55.2%
Showing top 10 of 30
NO Team
Total Invested
$1.4K
Avg Win Rate
83.7%
Aggregate P&L
-$282(-20.7%)
Whales
36
Q
qwen300.fund🥇
Entry 61¢·359.4 shares
Invested
$218
Win Rate
86.2%
Position P&L
$-63
$-63INV $218 · WR 86.2%
P
plainfolder🥈
Entry 93¢·164 shares
Invested
$152
Win Rate
86.2%
Position P&L
$-82
$-82INV $152 · WR 86.2%
G
graynotebook19🥉
Entry 59¢·220 shares
Invested
$129
Win Rate
89.2%
Position P&L
$-35
$-35INV $129 · WR 89.2%
Q
quietparcel
Entry 63¢·150 shares
Invested
$95
Win Rate
88.7%
Position P&L
$-30
$-30INV $95 · WR 88.7%
N
northdrawer
Entry 74¢·113.7 shares
Invested
$84
Win Rate
87.7%
Position P&L
$-35
$-35INV $84 · WR 87.7%
G
god83743894
Entry 44¢·187.7 shares
Invested
$82
Win Rate
86.1%
Position P&L
$-1
$-1INV $82 · WR 86.1%
S
smallreceipt
Entry 72¢·97 shares
Invested
$70
Win Rate
88.9%
Position P&L
$-28
$-28INV $70 · WR 88.9%
E
Exciting-Hat-Vegetarian
Entry 38¢·139.3 shares
Invested
$53
Win Rate
60.2%
Position P&L
+$6
+$6INV $53 · WR 60.2%
K
Knowing-Arthur-Ashhedged
Entry 33¢·136.7 shares·also $45 on YES
Invested
$45
Win Rate
60.1%
Position P&L
+$14
+$14INV $45 · WR 60.1%
V
VictorLudorum
Entry 50¢·85.2 shares
Invested
$42
Win Rate
88.2%
Position P&L
$-6
$-6INV $42 · WR 88.2%
Showing top 10 of 36
Smart Whale Trades
Loading trades...
Price History (YES)
Loading chart...
Loaded in 732ms