EconomicsResolved
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
YES Price
0¢
0% implied
NO Price
100¢
100% implied
Volume
$25.88M
84,923 trades
Smart Whales
1055
of 14,490 traders · 16 on both sides
Fed Decision in July?
7 MARKETS · $39.17M MATCHEDSmart Money
by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting←
0¢+24¢$25.88M260/811by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting←+24¢0¢
$25.88M260/811
by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting
20¢+34¢$7.57M322/278by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting+34¢20¢
$7.57M322/278
by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting
0¢+18¢$4.38M53/245by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting+18¢0¢
$4.38M53/245
by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting
76¢−36¢$775.8K65/99by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting−36¢76¢
$775.8K65/99
by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting
3¢+12¢$419.7K14/78by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting+12¢3¢
$419.7K14/78
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
260 YESvs811 NO
24%76%
76% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 60% YES by dollars · 201 YES vs 618 NO taking a side · 1 on both sides
Quiet 24h — no new smart whale entries
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
$1.3K of $274.1K is hedged across different prices by 16 wallets. True directional: YES $162.7K·NO $110.0KYES Team
Total Invested
$1.03M
Avg Win Rate
65.7%
Aggregate P&L
-$998.9K(-97.4%)
Whales
260
T
TheReturnOfDarthMaul🥇
Entry 16¢·1,915,446.3 shares
Invested
$312.4K
Win Rate
62.7%
Position P&L
$-312427
$-312427INV $312.4K · WR 62.7%
E
Erasmus.◆Proven🥈
Entry 24¢·875,341.9 shares
Invested
$207.5K
Win Rate
70.7%
Position P&L
$-207496
$-207496INV $207.5K · WR 70.7%
F
foodenjoyer🥉hedged
Entry 10¢·1,207,441.8 shares·also $532.7K on NO
Invested
$125.3K
Win Rate
60.2%
Position P&L
$-125327
$-125327INV $125.3K · WR 60.2%
T
Treadmilled
Entry 22¢·468,460.7 shares
Invested
$103.0K
Win Rate
58.8%
Position P&L
$-102980
$-102980INV $103.0K · WR 58.8%
U
Upright-Snug
Entry 32¢·233,782 shares
Invested
$74.0K
Win Rate
80.1%
Position P&L
$-73973
$-73973INV $74.0K · WR 80.1%
I
ImJustKen
Entry 24¢·249,999.7 shares
Invested
$60.4K
Win Rate
61.2%
Position P&L
$-60368
$-60368INV $60.4K · WR 61.2%
D
defillama7◆Proven
Entry 24¢·70,978 shares
Invested
$17.3K
Win Rate
68.5%
Position P&L
$-17270
$-17270INV $17.3K · WR 68.5%
D
Detailed-Poison
Entry 24¢·69,383.5 shares
Invested
$16.9K
Win Rate
86.2%
Position P&L
$-16914
$-16914INV $16.9K · WR 86.2%
Y
yungstalin
Entry 10¢·136,599.3 shares
Invested
$13.5K
Win Rate
60.4%
Position P&L
$-13482
$-13482INV $13.5K · WR 60.4%
S
SquirrelTheMerchant
Entry 21¢·56,031.3 shares
Invested
$11.6K
Win Rate
64.9%
Position P&L
$-11588
$-11588INV $11.6K · WR 64.9%
Showing top 10 of 260
NO Team
Total Invested
$4.05M
Avg Win Rate
76.1%
Aggregate P&L
+$1.45M(+35.9%)
Whales
811
X
XAE12Archangel🥇
Entry 80¢·1,515,238.4 shares
Invested
$1.22M
Win Rate
77.3%
Position P&L
+$296195
+$296195INV $1.22M · WR 77.3%
F
foodenjoyer🥈hedged
Entry 73¢·728,055.3 shares·also $125.3K on YES
Invested
$532.7K
Win Rate
60.2%
Position P&L
+$195315
+$195315INV $532.7K · WR 60.2%
A
alliswell🥉
Entry 89¢·272,565.1 shares
Invested
$241.9K
Win Rate
86.6%
Position P&L
+$30623
+$30623INV $241.9K · WR 86.6%
D
donthackme
Entry 85¢·167,876 shares
Invested
$142.8K
Win Rate
87.7%
Position P&L
+$25121
+$25121INV $142.8K · WR 87.7%
J
JAHODA
Entry 22¢·606,613.5 shares
Invested
$131.3K
Win Rate
87.4%
Position P&L
+$475321
+$475321INV $131.3K · WR 87.4%
D
darlord
Entry 83¢·149,854.4 shares
Invested
$124.5K
Win Rate
82.6%
Position P&L
+$25337
+$25337INV $124.5K · WR 82.6%
W
WordleAddict◆Proven
Entry 77¢·150,002.6 shares
Invested
$114.8K
Win Rate
68.8%
Position P&L
+$35221
+$35221INV $114.8K · WR 68.8%
B
Bigggggggg
Entry 82¢·110,040.4 shares
Invested
$89.7K
Win Rate
85.8%
Position P&L
+$20329
+$20329INV $89.7K · WR 85.8%
H
HH168
Entry 91¢·90,621 shares
Invested
$82.2K
Win Rate
86.9%
Position P&L
+$8372
+$8372INV $82.2K · WR 86.9%
W
Wickier◆Proven
Entry 83¢·77,500.5 shares
Invested
$64.6K
Win Rate
60.7%
Position P&L
+$12894
+$12894INV $64.6K · WR 60.7%
Showing top 10 of 811
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