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Economics166 days left

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2027 meeting?

Trade on Polymarket
YES Price
25¢
25% implied
NO Price
75¢
75% implied
Volume
$47.2K
492 trades
Smart Whales
18
of 135 traders

Fed Decision in April?

11 MARKETS · $16.09M MATCHED

Smart Money Consensus

7 YESvs11 NO
Wallets vs price
Price 25¢
YES 39%NO 61%of Smart Money wallets holding this marketYES price 25¢
Net of both-sides wallets: 91% YES by dollars · 7 YES vs 2 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 75%· net of hedges
+8 new YES+11 new NO
$215 bought on both sides by the same 6 buyers — left out of momentum
In-form wallets ⓘ3 of 4 on YES
YES 3NO 1one dot = one wallet
3 wallets on YES
1 wallet on NO

The top 10% of wallets by Form vs price: over the last 90 days they won more often than the prices they paid implied. In a test on closed markets, when at least 2/3 of three or more such wallets held one side, that side also won more often than its price implied. Positions updated 37h ago. This describes who holds what, not a forecast. How it was tested

Teams by
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $923 is directional: YES $841·NO $81
YES Team
Total Invested
$841
Avg Win Rate
63.1%
Aggregate P&L
+$346(+41.1%)
Whales
7
C
Capital-Endoderm🥇
Entry 17¢·2,285.7 shares
+$185INV $397 · WR 59.5%
R
RememberAmalekProven🥈
Entry 18¢·2,080 shares
+$149INV $381 · WR 65.5%
D
Donkov🥉
Entry 24¢·200 shares
+$4INV $48 · WR 69.4%
S
Sardonic-CueProven
Entry 16¢·60 shares
+$6INV $10 · WR 79.2%
6
0x688ec919...
Entry 27¢·7.8 shares
$-0INV $2 · WR 78.8%
M
MrIdiotPigeon
Entry 17¢·12.5 shares
+$1INV $2 · WR 66.1%
I
Insignificant-Triangle
Entry 24¢·5 shares
+$0INV $1 · WR 61.5%

Smart Whale Trades

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Price History (YES)

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