Economics166 days left
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2027 meeting?
YES Price
62¢
62% implied
NO Price
38¢
38% implied
Volume
$16.2K
240 trades
Smart Whales
20
of 113 traders
Fed Decision in April?
8 MARKETS · $8.70M MATCHEDSmart Money
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting
3¢+36¢$7.86M122/188Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting+36¢3¢
$7.86M122/188
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting
41¢−9¢$708.5K33/70Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting−9¢41¢
$708.5K33/70
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2027 meeting
38¢−7¢$48.3K12/27Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2027 meeting−7¢38¢
$48.3K12/27
by 50+ bps after the April 2027 meeting
5¢+2¢$4.5K1/14by 50+ bps after the April 2027 meeting+2¢5¢
$4.5K1/14
by 25 bps after the April 2027 meeting
8¢+8¢$8.0K3/16by 25 bps after the April 2027 meeting+8¢8¢
$8.0K3/16
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2027 meeting←
62¢−42¢$16.2K4/16Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2027 meeting←−42¢62¢
$16.2K4/16
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
4 YESvs16 NO
Wallets vs price
Price 62¢
YES 20%NO 80%of Smart Money wallets holding this marketYES price 62¢
Net of both-sides wallets: 78% YES by dollars · 3 YES vs 4 NO taking a side
Quiet 24h — no new smart whale entries
In-form wallets ⓘ2 of 3 on YES
YES 2NO 1one dot = one wallet
2 wallets on YES
1 wallet on NO
The top 10% of wallets by Form vs price: over the last 90 days they won more often than the prices they paid implied. In a test on closed markets, when at least 2/3 of three or more such wallets held one side, that side also won more often than its price implied. Positions updated 37h ago. This describes who holds what, not a forecast. How it was tested
Teams by
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $1.7K is directional: YES $1.3K·NO $375YES Team
Total Invested
$1.5K
Avg Win Rate
61.7%
Aggregate P&L
+$120(+8.1%)
Whales
4
F
firegold🥇
Entry 65¢·1,000 shares
Invested
$650
Win Rate
58.8%
Position P&L
$-25
$-25INV $650 · WR 58.8%
A
ArmageddonRewardsBilly🥈
Entry 65¢·502.4 shares
Invested
$326
Win Rate
57.1%
Position P&L
$-12
$-12INV $326 · WR 57.1%
T
Tenebrus7◆Proven🥉
Entry 65¢·500 shares
Invested
$325
Win Rate
74.3%
Position P&L
$-15
$-15INV $325 · WR 74.3%
T
truthtellerhedged
Entry 31¢·555 shares·also $261 on NO
Invested
$172
Win Rate
57.8%
Position P&L
+$172
+$172INV $172 · WR 57.8%
NO Team
Total Invested
$1.1K
Avg Win Rate
66.8%
Aggregate P&L
-$124(-10.9%)
Whales
16
C
Capital-Endoderm🥇
Entry 35¢·1,000 shares
Invested
$350
Win Rate
59.5%
Position P&L
+$30
+$30INV $350 · WR 59.5%
T
truthteller🥈hedged
Entry 47¢·555 shares·also $172 on YES
Invested
$261
Win Rate
57.8%
Position P&L
$-50
$-50INV $261 · WR 57.8%
L
Likaseent🥉
Entry 44¢·347.9 shares
Invested
$153
Win Rate
78.5%
Position P&L
$-21
$-21INV $153 · WR 78.5%
R
RememberAmalek◆Proven
Entry 66¢·179.2 shares
Invested
$118
Win Rate
65.5%
Position P&L
$-50
$-50INV $118 · WR 65.5%
L
Lucerys
Entry 47¢·196.4 shares
Invested
$93
Win Rate
87.7%
Position P&L
$-18
$-18INV $93 · WR 87.7%
B
balthazar
Entry 41¢·160 shares
Invested
$66
Win Rate
71.9%
Position P&L
$-5
$-5INV $66 · WR 71.9%
E
e46m3
Entry 41¢·65.5 shares
Invested
$27
Win Rate
79.2%
Position P&L
$-2
$-2INV $27 · WR 79.2%
Y
yamauris
Entry 50¢·44 shares
Invested
$22
Win Rate
55.6%
Position P&L
$-7
$-7INV $22 · WR 55.6%
S
smallreceipt
Entry 44¢·30 shares
Invested
$13
Win Rate
88.6%
Position P&L
$-2
$-2INV $13 · WR 88.6%
Q
qwen300.fund
Entry 34¢·32.7 shares
Invested
$11
Win Rate
86.1%
Position P&L
+$1
+$1INV $11 · WR 86.1%
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