Economics16 days left
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
YES Price
1¢
1% implied
NO Price
99¢
99% implied
Volume
$6.27M
13,014 trades
Smart Whales
294
of 1,412 traders · 2 on both sides
Fed Decision in October?
9 MARKETS · $33.87M MATCHEDSmart Money
by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting
0¢+15¢$5.94M36/209by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting+15¢0¢
$5.94M36/209
by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting←
1¢+27¢$6.27M81/210by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting←+27¢1¢
$6.27M81/210
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting
83¢−12¢$8.65M560/226Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting−12¢83¢
$8.65M560/226
by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting
18¢+36¢$7.38M322/278by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting+36¢18¢
$7.38M322/278
by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting
0¢+18¢$4.38M53/245by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting+18¢0¢
$4.38M53/245
by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting
0¢+19¢$559.4K14/61by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting+19¢0¢
$559.4K14/61
by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting
1¢+22¢$600.3K23/78by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting+22¢1¢
$600.3K23/78
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
82 YESvs214 NO
28%72%
72% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 6% YES by dollars · 32 YES vs 105 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 98%· net of hedges
+25 new YES$2.9K+39 new NO$126.9K
$1.3K of this was bought on both sides by the same 9 buyers — left out of momentum
2 smart whales12 smart whales
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
$20 of $238.4K is hedged across different prices by 2 wallets. True directional: YES $14.2K·NO $224.2KYES Team
Total Invested
$28.4K
Avg Win Rate
63.4%
Aggregate P&L
-$13.6K(-47.8%)
Whales
82
F
foodenjoyer🥇
Entry 20¢·62,292.8 shares
Invested
$12.5K
Win Rate
60.2%
Position P&L
$-11991
$-11991INV $12.5K · WR 60.2%
D
donthackme🥈
Entry 20¢·4,728.1 shares
Invested
$946
Win Rate
87.7%
Position P&L
$-910
$-910INV $946 · WR 87.7%
M
MysticFind🥉hedged
Entry 1¢·53,975.3 shares·also $39.1K on NO
Invested
$312
Win Rate
90.5%
Position P&L
$-15
$-15INV $312 · WR 90.5%
H
HolyMoses7◆Proven
Entry 10¢·2,478.7 shares
Invested
$250
Win Rate
77.6%
Position P&L
$-232
$-232INV $250 · WR 77.6%
S
spidermarnn
Entry 4¢·2,819 shares
Invested
$106
Win Rate
75.6%
Position P&L
$-93
$-93INV $106 · WR 75.6%
B
Bravo414
Entry 14¢·437.4 shares
Invested
$63
Win Rate
64.7%
Position P&L
$-61
$-61INV $63 · WR 64.7%
F
FVA
Entry 4¢·1,333.3 shares
Invested
$52
Win Rate
59.3%
Position P&L
$-46
$-46INV $52 · WR 59.3%
F
flokeat
Entry 10¢·500 shares
Invested
$51
Win Rate
80.6%
Position P&L
$-48
$-48INV $51 · WR 80.6%
L
LesterDiamond
Entry 20¢·206.5 shares
Invested
$41
Win Rate
88.1%
Position P&L
$-39
$-39INV $41 · WR 88.1%
S
Spiteful-Seizure
Entry 6¢·500 shares
Invested
$31
Win Rate
60.0%
Position P&L
$-29
$-29INV $31 · WR 60.0%
Showing top 10 of 82
NO Team
Total Invested
$553.1K
Avg Win Rate
78.3%
Aggregate P&L
+$537.6K(+97.2%)
Whales
214
P
ProfessionalPunter◆Proven🥇
Entry 100¢·100,000 shares
Invested
$99.5K
Win Rate
74.6%
Position P&L
$-50
$-50INV $99.5K · WR 74.6%
T
TheReturnOfDarthMaul🥈
Entry 94¢·50,747.1 shares
Invested
$47.7K
Win Rate
62.7%
Position P&L
+$2813
+$2813INV $47.7K · WR 62.7%
M
MysticFind🥉hedged
Entry 99¢·39,395.7 shares·also $312 on YES
Invested
$39.1K
Win Rate
90.5%
Position P&L
+$30
+$30INV $39.1K · WR 90.5%
Q
qwen4.1.fund
Entry 66¢·56,963.7 shares
Invested
$37.6K
Win Rate
85.9%
Position P&L
+$19074
+$19074INV $37.6K · WR 85.9%
E
e46m3
Entry 65¢·53,691 shares
Invested
$35.0K
Win Rate
79.6%
Position P&L
+$18349
+$18349INV $35.0K · WR 79.6%
D
debased◆Proven
Entry 99¢·33,333 shares
Invested
$33.2K
Win Rate
65.9%
Position P&L
$-83
$-83INV $33.2K · WR 65.9%
V
VictorLudorum
Entry 62¢·53,011.1 shares
Invested
$32.9K
Win Rate
88.2%
Position P&L
+$19865
+$19865INV $32.9K · WR 88.2%
D
0xd32ce89f...◆Proven
Entry 99¢·20,657.9 shares
Invested
$20.4K
Win Rate
83.5%
Position P&L
+$190
+$190INV $20.4K · WR 83.5%
Q
QMG-CORE
Entry 99¢·20,000 shares
Invested
$19.9K
Win Rate
81.2%
Position P&L
$-35
$-35INV $19.9K · WR 81.2%
M
merod
Entry 98¢·19,092.3 shares
Invested
$18.8K
Win Rate
84.1%
Position P&L
+$228
+$228INV $18.8K · WR 84.1%
Showing top 10 of 214
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