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Economics90 days left

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

View on Polymarket
YES Price
2ยข
2% implied
NO Price
98ยข
98% implied
Volume
$3.45M
37,764 trades
Smart Whales
424
of 4,745 traders ยท 6 on both sides

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

13 MARKETS ยท $53.80M MATCHED

Smart Money Consensus

209 YESvs221 NO
49%51%
51% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 27% YES by dollars ยท 116 YES vs 49 NO taking a side ยท 1 on both sides
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 92%ยท net of hedges
+14 new YES$331+10 new NO$2.1K
$298 of this was bought on both sides by the same 3 buyers โ€” left out of momentum
2 smart whales0 smart whales
Both-sides exposure ยท invested basis
$224 of $40.4K is hedged across different prices by 6 wallets. True directional: YES $10.9KยทNO $29.2K
YES Team
Total Invested
$28.6K
Avg Win Rate
68.2%
Aggregate P&L
-$9.1K(-32.0%)
Whales
209
I
ImJustKen๐Ÿฅ‡
Entry 10ยขยท24,018.5 shares
$-2010INV $2.5K ยท WR 61.3%
E
Eatpraylove๐Ÿฅˆ
Entry 11ยขยท11,230.4 shares
$-1076INV $1.3K ยท WR 72.7%
M
MrZender๐Ÿฅ‰
Entry 22ยขยท4,381.9 shares
$-871INV $952 ยท WR 58.6%
C
Copezilla
Entry 15ยขยท5,388.6 shares
$-735INV $835 ยท WR 70.5%
C
Cloudy-Naming
Entry 13ยขยท4,974 shares
$-545INV $637 ยท WR 61.2%
L
LA17
Entry 8ยขยท5,333.7 shares
$-317INV $416 ยท WR 82.8%
H
haruk098
Entry 21ยขยท1,905 shares
$-362INV $397 ยท WR 76.0%
D
Dr.RelativeValue
Entry 13ยขยท2,600 shares
$-296INV $344 ยท WR 78.6%
M
MarvelFan94
Entry 7ยขยท4,731 shares
$-233INV $320 ยท WR 70.1%
8
89whytea89
Entry 27ยขยท1,184.7 shares
$-298INV $320 ยท WR 90.7%
Showing top 10 of 209

Smart Whale Trades

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Price History (YES)

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Smart money 48% YES: 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026