Politics2 days left

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 2%?

View on Polymarket

YES Price

14¢

14% implied

NO Price

86¢

86% implied

Volume

$8.3K

100 trades

Smart Whales

14

of 56 traders

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Specific Margin of Victory

18 MARKETS · $3.39M MATCHED

Smart Money

by at least 12%

2¢+5¢$742.5K6/82

by at least 12%+5¢2¢

5¢+10¢$1.14M26/148

by 8–12%+10¢5¢

31¢+8¢$831.5K55/86

by 4–8%+8¢31¢

by less than 4%

42¢+10¢$635.3K89/82

by less than 4%+10¢42¢

by at least 12%

2¢+18¢$1.8K1/4

by at least 12%+18¢2¢

1¢−1¢$7580/3

by 10–12%−1¢1¢

1¢−1¢$6640/2

by 8–10%−1¢1¢

5¢+28¢$2.5K2/4

by 6–8%+28¢5¢

27¢+17¢$3.4K4/5

by 4–6%+17¢27¢

31¢+2¢$9.0K2/4

by 2–4%+2¢31¢

by less than 2%←

14¢+24¢$8.3K3/5

by less than 2%←+24¢14¢

by less than 2%

20¢−20¢$6.1K0/4

by less than 2%−20¢20¢

2¢+48¢$1.5K1/1

by 2–4%+48¢2¢

by 4–6%0¢0¢

by 6–8%0¢0¢

1¢−1¢$3050/1

by 8–10%−1¢1¢

by 10–12%0¢0¢

by at least 12%

by at least 12%0¢0¢

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Smart Money Consensus

3 YESvs11 NO

21%79%

79% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 7% YES by dollars · 3 YES vs 3 NO taking a side

Last 24h FlowNO momentum 84%· net of hedges

+27 new YES$1.3K+26 new NO$5.6K

$477 of this was bought on both sides by the same 11 buyers — left out of momentum

0 smart whales9 smart whales

Both-sides exposure · invested basis

No wallet here holds both sides — all $461 is directional: YES $34·NO $427

YES Team

Total Invested

$34

Avg Win Rate

76.8%

Aggregate P&L

-$2(-5.5%)

Whales

3

Entry 15¢·200 shares

$-3INV $30 · WR 78.7%

Entry 15¢·20 shares

$-0INV $3 · WR 65.1%

Spotless-Investigator-Overcoat🥉

Entry 7¢·20 shares

+$1INV $1 · WR 59.9%

NO Team

Total Invested

$3.9K

Avg Win Rate

70.1%

Aggregate P&L

+$307(+7.9%)

Whales

11

Entry 80¢·2,180.6 shares

+$137INV $1.7K · WR 72.1%

melchior1248🥈

Entry 81¢·1,987.6 shares

+$114INV $1.6K · WR 69.5%

Entry 78¢·500 shares

+$43INV $390 · WR 59.6%

Entry 85¢·30 shares

+$1INV $25 · WR 85.9%

Entry 78¢·30 shares

+$3INV $23 · WR 85.9%

Entry 76¢·30 shares

+$3INV $23 · WR 86.6%

Entry 76¢·28 shares

+$3INV $21 · WR 87.6%

Entry 79¢·20 shares

+$2INV $16 · WR 84.7%

Knowing-Arthur-Ash

Entry 79¢·20 shares

+$2INV $16 · WR 59.8%

Entry 80¢·17.8 shares

+$1INV $14 · WR 79.6%

Showing top 10 of 11

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