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Politics

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election by 6%-9%?

Trade on Polymarket
YES Price
4¢
4% implied
NO Price
96¢
96% implied
Volume
$16.7K
373 trades
Smart Whales
11
of 107 traders

Texas Governor Election Margin of Victory

10 MARKETS · $79.0K MATCHED

Smart Money Consensus

5 YESvs6 NO
46%55%
55% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 100% YES by dollars · 4 YES vs 0 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 96%· net of hedges
+8 new YES$53+9 new NO$371
$79 of this was bought on both sides by the same 5 buyers — left out of momentum
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $25 is directional: YES $25·NO $0
YES Team
Total Invested
$42
Avg Win Rate
63.0%
Aggregate P&L
-$22(-52.3%)
Whales
5
C
cloverpmq2🥇hedged
Entry 84¢·20 shares·also $4 on NO
$-16INV $17 · WR 55.7%
S
StandardSatire🥈
Entry 17¢·83.3 shares
$-6INV $14 · WR 57.3%
E
e46m3🥉
Entry 8¢·107.9 shares
+$1INV $9 · WR 79.6%
D
donthackme
Entry 8¢·19.1 shares
+$0INV $2 · WR 87.7%
C
coypu
Entry 22¢·4.8 shares
$-1INV $1 · WR 74.9%

Smart Whale Trades

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Price History (YES)

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Smart money 46% YES: the Republican Party candidate win…