Politics22 days left
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AR-04 House election by 25%-30%?
YES Price
17¢
17% implied
NO Price
83¢
83% implied
Volume
$1.3K
95 trades
Smart Whales
6
of 41 traders
AR-04 House Election Margin of Victory
10 MARKETS · $24.5K MATCHEDSmart Money
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
1 YESvs5 NO
17%83%
83% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 100% YES by dollars · 1 YES vs 0 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 81%· net of hedges
+8 new YES$56+7 new NO$154
$51 of this was bought on both sides by the same 4 buyers — left out of momentum
0 smart whales1 smart whale
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $2 is directional: YES $2·NO $0YES Team
Total Invested
$2
Avg Win Rate
75.0%
Aggregate P&L
+$3(+139.5%)
Whales
1
NO Team
Total Invested
$64
Avg Win Rate
81.6%
Aggregate P&L
+$16(+24.6%)
Whales
5
G
gmgmgmgmg🥇
Entry 80¢·40.1 shares
Invested
$32
Win Rate
79.2%
Position P&L
+$1
+$1INV $32 · WR 79.2%
S
Satisfied-Shoehorn-Blast🥈
Entry 75¢·14.5 shares
Invested
$11
Win Rate
83.4%
Position P&L
+$1
+$1INV $11 · WR 83.4%
C
Clean-Chick-Cupcake🥉
Entry 50¢·18 shares
Invested
$9
Win Rate
82.7%
Position P&L
+$6
+$6INV $9 · WR 82.7%
M
Moral-Stamp
Entry 50¢·18 shares
Invested
$9
Win Rate
84.4%
Position P&L
+$6
+$6INV $9 · WR 84.4%
G
godblessme2026
Entry 60¢·5 shares
Invested
$3
Win Rate
88.2%
Position P&L
+$1
+$1INV $3 · WR 88.2%
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