Politics22 days left
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AR-04 House election by 30%-35%?
YES Price
27¢
27% implied
NO Price
73¢
73% implied
Volume
$9.0K
361 trades
Smart Whales
10
of 90 traders
AR-04 House Election Margin of Victory
10 MARKETS · $24.0K MATCHEDSmart Money
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
3 YESvs7 NO
30%70%
70% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 97% YES by dollars · 2 YES vs 1 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowYES momentum 72%· net of hedges
+6 new YES$39+4 new NO$19
$11 of this was bought on both sides by the same 4 buyers — left out of momentum
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $22 is directional: YES $21·NO $1YES Team
Total Invested
$227
Avg Win Rate
70.4%
Aggregate P&L
-$102(-44.8%)
Whales
3
NO Team
Total Invested
$56
Avg Win Rate
83.8%
Aggregate P&L
+$22(+40.2%)
Whales
7
E
e46m3🥇
Entry 59¢·20 shares
Invested
$12
Win Rate
79.6%
Position P&L
+$3
+$3INV $12 · WR 79.6%
G
godblessme2026🥈
Entry 50¢·20 shares
Invested
$10
Win Rate
88.2%
Position P&L
+$5
+$5INV $10 · WR 88.2%
S
smallreceipt🥉
Entry 50¢·20 shares
Invested
$10
Win Rate
89.0%
Position P&L
+$5
+$5INV $10 · WR 89.0%
N
Needy-Logo
Entry 50¢·18 shares
Invested
$9
Win Rate
81.1%
Position P&L
+$4
+$4INV $9 · WR 81.1%
N
Novel-Driveway-Upgrade
Entry 50¢·18 shares
Invested
$9
Win Rate
81.8%
Position P&L
+$4
+$4INV $9 · WR 81.8%
G
god83743894
Entry 50¢·10 shares
Invested
$5
Win Rate
85.7%
Position P&L
+$2
+$2INV $5 · WR 85.7%
G
garbagecollect4
Entry 72¢·1 shares
Invested
$1
Win Rate
68.9%
Position P&L
—
—INV $1 · WR 68.9%
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