Politics22 days left
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AR-04 House election by 25%-30%?
YES Price
18¢
18% implied
NO Price
82¢
82% implied
Volume
$1.2K
90 trades
Smart Whales
6
of 41 traders
AR-04 House Election Margin of Victory
10 MARKETS · $24.0K MATCHEDSmart Money
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
1 YESvs5 NO
17%83%
83% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 100% YES by dollars · 1 YES vs 0 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 82%· net of hedges
+13 new YES$175+16 new NO$377
$235 of this was bought on both sides by the same 10 buyers — left out of momentum
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $2 is directional: YES $2·NO $0YES Team
Total Invested
$2
Avg Win Rate
75.0%
Aggregate P&L
+$4(+215.9%)
Whales
1
NO Team
Total Invested
$64
Avg Win Rate
81.5%
Aggregate P&L
+$14(+22.2%)
Whales
5
G
gmgmgmgmg🥇
Entry 80¢·40.1 shares
Invested
$32
Win Rate
79.2%
Position P&L
+$1
+$1INV $32 · WR 79.2%
S
Satisfied-Shoehorn-Blast🥈
Entry 75¢·14.5 shares
Invested
$11
Win Rate
83.4%
Position P&L
+$1
+$1INV $11 · WR 83.4%
C
Clean-Chick-Cupcake🥉
Entry 50¢·18 shares
Invested
$9
Win Rate
82.7%
Position P&L
+$6
+$6INV $9 · WR 82.7%
M
Moral-Stamp
Entry 50¢·18 shares
Invested
$9
Win Rate
84.4%
Position P&L
+$6
+$6INV $9 · WR 84.4%
G
godblessme2026
Entry 60¢·4.8 shares
Invested
$3
Win Rate
88.2%
Position P&L
+$1
+$1INV $3 · WR 88.2%
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