YES Price
50¢
50% implied
NO Price
50¢
50% implied
Volume
$168.5K
981 trades
Smart Whales
44
of 273 traders · 2 on both sides
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
3 MARKETS · $2.54M MATCHEDHover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
20 YESvs26 NO
Wallets vs price
Price 50¢
YES 44%NO 57%of Smart Money wallets holding this marketYES price 50¢
Net of both-sides wallets: 14% YES by dollars · 18 YES vs 22 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 59%· net of hedges
$1.2K
$1.7K
+12 new YES · 3 smart whales+12 new NO · 5 smart whales
$275 bought on both sides by the same 2 buyers — left out of momentum
In-form wallets ⓘsplit 4 · 4
YES 4NO 4one dot = one wallet
4 wallets on YES
4 wallets on NO
The top 10% of wallets by Form vs price: over the last 90 days they won more often than the prices they paid implied. In a test on closed markets, when at least 2/3 of three or more such wallets held one side, that side also won more often than its price implied. Positions updated 2 days ago. This describes who holds what, not a forecast. How it was tested
Teams by
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
$6 of $26.2K is hedged across different prices by 2 wallets. True directional: YES $3.6K·NO $22.6KYES Team
Total Invested
$4.2K
Avg Win Rate
70.4%
Aggregate P&L
+$292(+7.0%)
Whales
20
C
Car🥇
Entry 47¢·3,213 shares
Invested
$1.5K
Win Rate
64.9%
Position P&L
+$94
+$94INV $1.5K · WR 64.9%
I
Ideal-Arch🥈
Entry 51¢·1,450 shares
Invested
$741
Win Rate
89.0%
Position P&L
+$6
+$6INV $741 · WR 89.0%
G
gesst🥉
Entry 41¢·1,752.7 shares
Invested
$727
Win Rate
69.7%
Position P&L
+$175
+$175INV $727 · WR 69.7%
M
melonmanmhedged
Entry 53¢·1,000 shares·also $490 on NO
Invested
$530
Win Rate
70.6%
Position P&L
$-30
$-30INV $530 · WR 70.6%
S
sysiphean
Entry 52¢·477.6 shares
Invested
$246
Win Rate
58.7%
Position P&L
$-0
$-0INV $246 · WR 58.7%
V
vxd2
Entry 42¢·238.1 shares
Invested
$100
Win Rate
60.0%
Position P&L
+$23
+$23INV $100 · WR 60.0%
A
alwayswinneverlose
Entry 42¢·200 shares
Invested
$84
Win Rate
69.6%
Position P&L
+$19
+$19INV $84 · WR 69.6%
M
Malganishedged
Entry 51¢·98.8 shares·also $52 on NO
Invested
$50
Win Rate
73.2%
Position P&L
$-1
$-1INV $50 · WR 73.2%
4
0x4e84ce15...
Entry 54¢·76 shares
Invested
$41
Win Rate
58.3%
Position P&L
$-2
$-2INV $41 · WR 58.3%
M
mad4xhedged
Entry 50¢·64 shares·also $2 on NO
Invested
$32
Win Rate
55.9%
Position P&L
+$1
+$1INV $32 · WR 55.9%
Showing top 10 of 20
NO Team
Total Invested
$23.1K
Avg Win Rate
66.3%
Aggregate P&L
-$315(-1.4%)
Whales
26
P
PantheraUncia🥇
Entry 48¢·20,748.3 shares
Invested
$10.0K
Win Rate
57.6%
Position P&L
+$372
+$372INV $10.0K · WR 57.6%
G
GollumGekko◆Proven🥈
Entry 59¢·9,385.9 shares
Invested
$5.5K
Win Rate
75.3%
Position P&L
$-857
$-857INV $5.5K · WR 75.3%
K
KrackenSruster🥉
Entry 45¢·4,077.3 shares
Invested
$1.8K
Win Rate
65.6%
Position P&L
+$204
+$204INV $1.8K · WR 65.6%
C
controls◆Proven
Entry 51¢·1,931.4 shares
Invested
$984
Win Rate
71.1%
Position P&L
$-18
$-18INV $984 · WR 71.1%
D
Dondigidin
Entry 57¢·1,500 shares
Invested
$851
Win Rate
65.3%
Position P&L
$-124
$-124INV $851 · WR 65.3%
C
congoterrier
Entry 50¢·1,258.8 shares
Invested
$625
Win Rate
64.0%
Position P&L
$-14
$-14INV $625 · WR 64.0%
G
Gluckyklucky
Entry 48¢·1,253.9 shares
Invested
$598
Win Rate
81.4%
Position P&L
+$10
+$10INV $598 · WR 81.4%
M
melonmanmhedged
Entry 49¢·1,000 shares·also $530 on YES
Invested
$490
Win Rate
70.6%
Position P&L
+$10
+$10INV $490 · WR 70.6%
S
simplcom
Entry 47¢·1,000 shares
Invested
$470
Win Rate
92.3%
Position P&L
+$15
+$15INV $470 · WR 92.3%
T
Tenebrus7◆Proven
Entry 46¢·1,000 shares
Invested
$460
Win Rate
74.3%
Position P&L
+$25
+$25INV $460 · WR 74.3%
Showing top 10 of 26
Smart Whale Trades
Loading trades...
Price History (YES)
Loading chart...
Loaded in 240ms